Monday, March 16, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Jorge Posada
With the news that Jorge Posada had a successful first day behind the dish yesterday, who better to start off the 2009 projections with?I'll follow the same basic format I've followed in past years for position players, a quick look at 2008 in retrospect, then breaking down the offense, defense, baserunning and finally looking at their projected value compared to their salary
This year, I will be using six different projection systems for these pieces.
Sean Smith's CHONE.
The Hardball Times' projections (no fancy name for these yet).
Tango Tiger's Marcels.
Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS.
And my very own CAIRO.
2008
As everyone reading this blog knows, Posada missed the bulk of last year with a shoulder injury that necessitated surgery. In many ways, this underscored his importance to the team. I've always felt Jorge was underrated. Prior to 2008, Posada had appeared in at least 135 games for eight straight seasons, and has always been one of the top hitting catchers in the league. He gives back some of that value on defense and baserunning, but he's been a key cog and losing him for most of the season really hammered that idea home.
In my 2008 post-mortem, the numbers showed that the loss of Posada was the single biggest reason the Yankees failed to make the postseason.
So here's a look at Posada's projections entering 2008, and his actual performance.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA | |
| 2008 chone | 560 | 483 | 80 | 134 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 70 | 97 | 7 | .277 | .377 | .458 | 82 | 95 | 37 | .355 |
| 2008 marcel | 549 | 476 | 72 | 137 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 63 | 97 | 6 | .288 | .375 | .468 | 83 | 98 | 39 | .356 |
| 2008 pecota | 525 | 450 | 74 | 129 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 66 | 91 | 4 | .287 | .380 | .479 | 81 | 100 | 41 | .361 |
| 2008 zips | 524 | 452 | 67 | 128 | 29 | 0 | 15 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 92 | 6 | .283 | .382 | .447 | 77 | 95 | 37 | .356 |
| 2008 cairo | 524 | 452 | 67 | 128 | 29 | 0 | 15 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 92 | 6 | .283 | .382 | .447 | 77 | 95 | 37 | .356 |
| 2008 average | 536 | 463 | 72 | 131 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 77 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 94 | 6 | .284 | .379 | .460 | 80 | 97 | 38 | .357 |
| 2008 actual | 195 | 168 | 18 | 45 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 38 | 2 | .268 | .364 | .411 | 26 | 86 | 27 | .334 |
| difference | -64% | -64% | -75% | -6% | 25% | 326% | -52% | -21% | -100% | -100% | 0% | 12% | -5% | -.016 | -.015 | -.049 | -54 | -11 | -11 | -.023 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights.
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 plate appearances. As a rough rule of thumb, a replacement level hitter would be around 60 BR/650 (not adjusting for position), an average hitter around 80.
BRAR/650: Batting runs above replacement level, pro-rated to 650 PA.
wOBA: Weighted On-Base average, a rate version of linear weights that is scaled to OBP (ie .300 is bad, .335 is around average, .380 or higher is very good, etc.,). You can read about it at this link.
PA and AB differences are based on the average projections. R/H/2B/3B/HR/RBI/SB/CS/BB/SO are percentage differences on a rate basis, differences in AVG/OBP/SLG/woBA are just straight subtractions, the the BR stuff is all just straight run differences.
At least he hit for triples at a rate of 326% better than expected.
The biggest problem above is in the column labeled PA. As you can see, most of the projections were reasonably confident that Posada would be worth around four wins above a replacement level catcher. Even his relatively disappointing line would have been worth around 3 wins above a replacement level catcher(over a full season) because catchers just can't hit.
The good news is that Posada shouldn't have to do too much to make catcher more productive than it was. Let's see what the projections say for 2009...
Offense
As a 37 year catcher, time is not Jorge's side. Coupled with the uncertainty of how he will return from his surgery, catcher is probably the biggest area of concern I have with the team right now. With the caveat that projection systems don't care about injuries, here's the projection gauntlet for Posada.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA | |
| 2009 chone | 499 | 433 | 60 | 115 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 62 | 90 | 4 | .266 | .363 | .434 | 68 | 89 | 30 | .341 |
| 2009 marcel | 356 | 309 | 44 | 88 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 65 | 3 | .285 | .371 | .466 | 53 | 97 | 38 | .352 |
| 2009 pecota | 257 | 224 | 28 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 50 | 2 | .249 | .336 | .406 | 31 | 79 | 20 | .317 |
| 2009 tht | 362 | 315 | 45 | 88 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 65 | 5 | .279 | .373 | .444 | 52 | 94 | 35 | .350 |
| 2009 zips | 376 | 325 | 54 | 93 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 45 | 68 | 6 | .286 | .383 | .455 | 57 | 98 | 39 | .358 |
| 2009 cairo | 431 | 371 | 55 | 107 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 74 | 5 | .289 | .386 | .465 | 66 | 99 | 40 | .362 |
| 2009 average | 380 | 342 | 50 | 95 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 47 | 71 | 4 | .277 | .385 | .448 | 57 | 97 | 38 | .347 |
PECOTA's the big outlier here, but the injury clouds Posada's future. He's looked ok in spring so far, but we know that's generally meaningless.
I think Posada will hit enough to be an asset. Even his PECOTA forecast makes him an average hitter for a catcher. The average AL catcher hit .258/.322/.393 in 2008. What I don't know is how often he'll be able to play. For my Diamond Mind projections I'm assuming he will catch around 55% of the time. I think both Posada and the Yankees are hoping to beat that.
Lastly on offense, here are CAIRO's percentile forecasts for Posada.
| cairo percentiles | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 80% | 439 | 379 | 64 | 120 | 32 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 67 | 8 | .317 | .433 | .541 | 83 | 122 | 63 | .411 |
| 65% | 435 | 375 | 60 | 114 | 29 | 2 | 14 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 70 | 6 | .303 | .410 | .503 | 74 | 111 | 52 | .387 |
| baseline | 431 | 371 | 55 | 107 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 74 | 5 | .289 | .386 | .465 | 66 | 99 | 40 | .362 |
| 35% | 409 | 353 | 49 | 97 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 74 | 4 | .275 | .363 | .427 | 55 | 88 | 29 | .338 |
| 20% | 375 | 323 | 42 | 84 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 72 | 3 | .261 | .340 | .389 | 44 | 76 | 17 | .313 |
Defense
If only Posada didn't have to catch. Here are Jorge's numbers for the last four seasons and his 2009 projection.
| Year | Player | Age | Pos | Inn | PO | A | TE | FE | WP+PB | SBA | SB | CS | SBR | CSR | WP+PBR | TER | FER | SBAR | RS | RS/120 |
| 2005 | Jorge Posada | 34 | C | 1077 | 718 | 76 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 124 | 89 | 35 | -6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2006 | Jorge Posada | 35 | C | 1050 | 789 | 66 | 8 | 1 | 50 | 98 | 64 | 34 | 1 | 6 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2007 | Jorge Posada | 36 | C | 1111 | 799 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 65 | 130 | 102 | 28 | -10 | 3 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11 | -11 |
| 2008 | Jorge Posada | 37 | C | 234 | 197 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 37 | 34 | 3 | -6 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | -36 |
| 2009 Proj | Jorge Posada | 38 | C | 753 | 554 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 86 | 66 | 20 | -5 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -7 |
Inn: Innings played at position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
TE: Throwing errors
FE: Fielding errors
WP+PB: Wild pitches and passed balls
SBA: Stolen base attempts
SB: Stolen bases allowed
CS: Runners caught stealing
SBR: Run value of SB
CSR: Run value of CS
WP+PBR: Run value of WP+PB
TER: Run value of throwing errors
FER: Run value of fielding errors
SBAR: Run value for holding runners
RS: Runs saved compared to average
RS/120: RS pro-rated to 120 games
As you can see, the last two years haven't gone so well. Of course he made up for it with the bat in 2007.
Posada's never really been a great defender, fluctuating from average to below average most of the time. However, his shoulder injury last year really killed him. He threw out 3 of 37 baserunners trying to steal. Over a full season (120 games), he'd have been 36 runs below average.
It's tough to know how well he'll come back from surgery, but I think -5 over half a season's defensive innings seems realistic. If he's noticeably worse than that, I don't think they'll keep running him out there.
Baserunning
The one benefit of Posada being hurt means he wasn't on the bases. Most attempts to quantify non-stolen base baserunning agree that he is one of the worst in baseball. I mucked around a little with a system using retrosheet data a couple of years ago but lost interest, and I had Posada as the absolute worst baserunner.
I'm going to use Dan Fox's baserunning data from Baseball Prospectus. It only has data for 2007 and 2008, so it may be a little limited in what it can really tell us, but it's better than nothing. Fox includes stolen bases in his numbers but since I've already included them in offensive linear weights I removed them, not that it really matters in this particular instance.
| Year | GA_OPPS | EQGAR | AA_OPPS | EQAAR | HA_OPPS | EQHAR | OA_OPPS | EQOAR | OPPS | EQBRR |
| 2007 | 34 | -1.3 | 52 | -0.7 | 57 | -4.0 | 361 | -1.6 | 504 | -7.5 |
| 2008 | 10 | 0.0 | 10 | 0.1 | 14 | -0.9 | 87 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 Proj | 39 | -0.9 | 39 | -0.3 | 55 | -3.7 | 339 | -1.0 | 472 | -6.0 |
EQGAR: Run value of advances/non-advances on ground outs
AA_OPPS: Opportunities to advance on fly outs
EQAAR: Run value of advances/non-advances on fly outs
HA_OPPS: Opportunities to advance on hits
EQHAR:Run value of advances/non-advances on hits
OA_OPPS: Opportunities for other advances (wild pitches, passed balls, balks, etc.)
EQOAR: Run value of advances/non-advances on other attempts
OPPS: Total of all opportunities to advance
EQBRR: Total run value of all advances/non-advances
I projected his baserunning value for 2009 by using a weighted average of 2007 and 2008 and then pro-rating to the average playing time in the projections.
Value
So you've got a good hitting catcher who doesn't play particulary good defense and runs like a Microsoft operating system in its first year of release. What does it all add up to? Funny you should ask...
So Posada still looks to be an asset, but how badly is he being overpaid? Is he being overpaid?
| Category | Runs | Wins* |
| Offense | 38 | 3.8 |
| Defense | -5 | -0.5 |
| Baserunning | -6 | -0.6 |
| Total | 27 | 2.7 |
| 2009 Salary | $13,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $8,227,373 | ($4,772,627) |
| $3,500,000 | $9,598,602 | ($3,401,398) |
| $4,000,000 | $10,969,831 | ($2,030,169) |
| $4,500,000 | $12,341,060 | ($658,940) |
| $5,000,000 | $13,712,289 | $712,289 |
| $5,500,000 | $15,083,518 | $2,083,518 |
| $6,000,000 | $16,454,747 | $3,454,747 |
*Wins are calculated by comparing offense to position-adjusted replacement level, and with defense and baserunning compared to average.
Figuring out value depends on the worth of a marginal win. We generally estimate it based on what teams end up paying for their talent acquisitions, but it is not the same for every team, and the current economy may have some impact. So I listed a range where marginal wins are worth somewhere from $3 million to $6 million.
Conclusion
I've always been a big Posada fan, enough to sponsor his Baseball Reference page even. It kind of sucks that it took Jorge getting hurt and missing most of a season for a lot of people to realize how consistently good and valuable he's been. Even with the expected decline due to age, if he can hold up physically he should be able to make a positive contribution to the Yanks in 2009.
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