Thursday, March 26, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Johnny Damon
When the Yankees signed Johnny Damon after 2005, I hated it. I hated it for emotional reasons primarily, but also because I felt he was a poor risk to be productive offensively and defensively through age 35. Heading into 2009 and the final year of his contract, let's take a look at Damon's value to this point.| Player | Year | Age | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | zr rs | uzr rs | avg rs | WAR | Value | Salary | Difference |
| Johnny Damon | 2006 | 32 | cf | 669 | .285 | .359 | .482 | 101.0 | 40 | 4 | -7 | -2 | 3.8 | $19,014,058 | $13,000,000 | $6,014,058 |
| Johnny Damon | 2007 | 33 | cf | 604 | .270 | .351 | .396 | 78.5 | 11 | -1 | 7 | 3 | 1.4 | $7,397,618 | $13,000,000 | -$5,602,383 |
| Johnny Damon | 2008 | 34 | lf | 621 | .303 | .375 | .461 | 95.3 | 36 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 3.7 | $20,313,310 | $13,000,000 | $7,313,310 |
| Total | 1894 | .286 | .362 | .448 | 274.9 | 87 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8.9 | $46,724,985 | $39,000,000 | $7,724,985 |
I'm assuming a marginal win for the Yankees was worth $5M in 2006, $5.25M in 2007, and $5.5M in 2008. With that assumption, so far the Damon contract has been worth it and then some.
For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check out the first and second posts in this series.
2008
After a poor 2007, Damon looked like he was on the verge of collapse. Offensively, he slugged under .400 for the first time since his age 23 season, and defensively his range in CF appeared to decline drastically and his poor arm seemed to get even worse. CF also seemed to be taking a physical toll on Damon. Because of all that, the Yankees officially moved Damon to LF to start 2008.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA | |
| 2008 chone | 598 | 535 | 97 | 148 | 26 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 60 | 78 | 3 | .277 | .353 | .426 | 80 | 87 | 26 | .334 |
| 2008 marcel | 570 | 507 | 89 | 142 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 63 | 20 | 4 | 54 | 75 | 3 | .280 | .349 | .424 | 76 | 87 | 27 | .329 |
| 2008 pecota | 534 | 471 | 76 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 55 | 69 | 3 | .278 | .354 | .417 | 70 | 85 | 25 | .330 |
| 2008 zips | 575 | 519 | 93 | 145 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 54 | 73 | 2 | .279 | .350 | .408 | 74 | 83 | 23 | .327 |
| 2008 cairo | 647 | 575 | 101 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 74 | 21 | 5 | 64 | 81 | 3 | .287 | .358 | .437 | 90 | 90 | 30 | .338 |
| 2008 average | 585 | 523 | 92 | 147 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 66 | 18 | 4 | 58 | 75 | 3 | .280 | .354 | .424 | 78 | 87 | 27 | .333 |
| 2008 actual | 623 | 555 | 95 | 168 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 71 | 29 | 8 | 64 | 82 | 1 | .303 | .374 | .461 | 94 | 98 | 38 | .355 |
| difference | 7% | 6% | 3% | 8% | -4% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 50% | 71% | 5% | 3% | -65% | .022 | .020 | .038 | 15 | 11 | 11 | .021 |
Damon's projections were slightly pessimistic, pegging him to hit for an average line of .280/.354/.424, and projecting him to be worth around 2.4 wins above replacement. It's worth noting that the deadly accurate CAIRO projection system was the closest. Yay CAIRO! Damon instead was worth 3.6 wins above replacement offensively,
Offense
Here's how Damon projects in 2009.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA | |
| 2009 chone | 615 | 551 | 97 | 152 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 62 | 81 | 2 | .276 | .351 | .417 | 81 | 85 | 25 | .330 |
| 2009 marcel | 572 | 507 | 84 | 140 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 62 | 22 | 6 | 58 | 80 | 1 | .276 | .348 | .428 | 77 | 87 | 27 | .329 |
| 2009 pecota | 549 | 486 | 80 | 136 | 26 | 4 | 12 | 62 | 22 | 6 | 55 | 77 | 3 | .280 | .353 | .423 | 74 | 87 | 27 | .331 |
| 2009 tht | 573 | 512 | 74 | 140 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 61 | 2 | 22 | 59 | 80 | 2 | .273 | .351 | .412 | 64 | 73 | 13 | .328 |
| 2009 zips | 628 | 564 | 99 | 164 | 30 | 4 | 15 | 69 | 2 | 25 | 62 | 78 | 2 | .291 | .363 | .438 | 77 | 79 | 19 | .342 |
| 2009 cairo | 634 | 564 | 102 | 159 | 30 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 22 | 6 | 63 | 84 | 2 | .282 | .354 | .433 | 87 | 89 | 28 | .335 |
| 2009 average | 595 | 532 | 90 | 149 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 65 | 15 | 12 | 60 | 80 | 2 | .280 | .355 | .426 | 77 | 84 | 23 | .334 |
The projections are expecting Damon to fall off by about a win and a half. I do expect him to fall off some, although perhaps not quite that much.
Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| cairo percentiles | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 80% | 647 | 575 | 114 | 175 | 36 | 7 | 20 | 79 | 28 | 4 | 73 | 77 | 4 | .304 | .389 | .494 | 108 | 108 | 48 | .372 |
| 65% | 641 | 569 | 108 | 167 | 33 | 6 | 18 | 74 | 25 | 5 | 68 | 80 | 3 | .293 | .371 | .464 | 97 | 99 | 38 | .353 |
| baseline | 634 | 564 | 102 | 159 | 30 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 22 | 6 | 63 | 84 | 2 | .282 | .354 | .433 | 87 | 89 | 28 | .335 |
| 35% | 603 | 536 | 92 | 145 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 19 | 7 | 56 | 84 | 1 | .271 | .336 | .403 | 73 | 79 | 19 | .316 |
| 20% | 552 | 490 | 80 | 127 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 15 | 7 | 48 | 81 | 1 | .260 | .319 | .373 | 59 | 69 | 9 | .297 |
Defense
It doesn't seem like the Yankees are entertaining the idea of putting Damon back in CF, although it'd be a way to get the best offense on the field. Since it's still a remote possibility, here are Damon's ZRs and UZRS going back to 2005.
| Year | Age | Pos | GP | Inn | RS (ZR) | RS (UZR) | Avg (ZR/UZR) | p162 |
| 2005 | 31 | CF | 147 | 1225 | 0 | -8 | -4 | -5 |
| 2006 | 32 | CF | 131 | 1087 | 1 | -7 | -3 | -4 |
| 2007 | 33 | CF | 48 | 377 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2008 | 34 | CF | 34 | 285 | 0 | -6 | -3 | -14 |
| 2009 | 35 | CF | 89 | 722 | 0 | -4 | -2 | -4 |
That doesn't include his arm, which probably costs about five runs a season.
Damon's LF statistics suffer from small sample size, but here they are anyway.
| Year | Age | Pos | GP | Inn | RS (ZR) | RS (UZR) | Avg (ZR/UZR) | p162 |
| 2005 | 31 | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 32 | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 33 | LF | 32 | 271 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 2008 | 34 | LF | 87 | 659 | -3 | 8 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 | 35 | LF | 81 | 612 | -2 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
UZR likes Damon's defense more than ZR. As discussed in the Jeter thread, that probably means he saw a more difficult distribution of fieldable chances.
| Dates | Player | TM | LG | Pos | G | INN | Ch | PM | ZR | Diff | RS |
| Through June 16 | Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 54 | 443.2 | 119 | 106 | .891 | 6 | 5 |
| After June 16 | Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 33 | 215.9 | 58 | 42 | .724 | -8 | -7 |
| Total | Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 87 | 659.1 | 177 | 148 | .836 | -2 | -2 |
Damon's zone rating was solid through June 16, then tanked. I blame Snacks Pontoon.
It's probably a safe assumption that Damon should be average or slightly above in LF defensively when looking at the combination of his CF and LF projections. A rough rule of thumb is that a league average CF should be anywhere from 10-15 runs above average in LF.
Baserunning
| Year | GA_OPPS | EQGAR | AA_OPPS | EQAAR | HA_OPPS | EQHAR | OA_OPPS | EQOAR | OPPS | EQBRR |
| 2007 | 41 | 0.4 | 42 | 1.7 | 60 | 2.0 | 371 | -0.4 | 514 | 7.5 |
| 2008 | 46 | -0.2 | 54 | -1.1 | 55 | -0.5 | 411 | 1.3 | 566 | 0.0 |
| 2009 Proj | 44 | 0.0 | 50 | -0.1 | 57 | 0.3 | 398 | 0.7 | 549 | 2.5 |
Damon was one of the better baserunners in the league in 2007 but fell to average in 2008. He should probably be somewhere close to that projection if he's healthy.
Value
Well, we already touched on Damon's value to this point, so let's see what the projections see as the final verdict on the Damon contract.
| Category | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 23 | 2.3 |
| Defense | 2 | 0.2 |
| Baserunning | 3 | 0.3 |
| Total | 28 | 2.8 |
| 2009 Salary | $13,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $8,271,727 | ($4,728,273) |
| $3,500,000 | $9,650,348 | ($3,349,652) |
| $4,000,000 | $11,028,969 | ($1,971,031) |
| $4,500,000 | $12,407,590 | ($592,410) |
| $5,000,000 | $13,786,212 | $786,212 |
| $5,500,000 | $15,164,833 | $2,164,833 |
| $6,000,000 | $16,543,454 | $3,543,454 |
It looks like the Yankees will end up ahead on the Damon deal unless disaster strikes.
Conclusion
Damon's possibly playing for his last MLB contract so I think he'll do whatever he can to have a big year. The news that Joe Girardi is going to bat him 2nd this year behind Derek Jeter seems like a smart move. I'd be curious to see the stats of lefty batters with 1B occupied, but I don't have time to run the data right now. Anyway, it makes sense because it splits up the possible Gardner/Damon lefty bottleneck between 9 and 1 and it moves Damon's power down a slot where it should be more advantageous, since he should see more opportunities with runners on.
I didn't think it would happen, but I've warmed up to Damon. I probably wouldn't bring him back in 2010, but he's been solid as a Yank.
It looks like the season is dawning on us faster than I'll be able to get through all the players, but I'll try to double and triple them up to get through them. Also, I expect to have the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout posted early next week.
Page 1 of 1 pages: