Saturday, April 4, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Hughes, Aceves and IPK
The odds of each of the Yankees’ starting five making the post for all their games this season are slim, so here’s a look at the guys backing them up, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and Ian Kennedy.
2008| phil hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 104 | 103 | 53 | 49 | 12 | 41 | 90 | 4.24 | 4.15 | 3 | 13 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 96 | 90 | 50 | 46 | 10 | 35 | 77 | 4.31 | 4.04 | 2 | 12 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 152 | 146 | 82 | 75 | 16 | 65 | 129 | 4.42 | 4.17 | 1 | 17 |
| 2008 zips projection | 141 | 136 | 63 | 58 | 13 | 40 | 106 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 13 | 27 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 78 | 71 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 25 | 61 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 6 | 14 |
| 2008 average projection | 114 | 109 | 56 | 52 | 12 | 41 | 93 | 4.10 | 3.98 | 5 | 17 |
| 2008 actual totals | 70 | 80 | 40 | 38 | 5 | 26 | 60 | 4.86 | 3.53 | -3 | 4 |
| difference | -44 | 143% | 97% | 105% | 0.77 | -0.45 | -8 | -12 |
I've included the MLEs(major league equivalencies) for these players in their 2008 actual totals. After a reasonably successful MLB debut in 2007, big things were expected for Phil Hughes in 2008. He broke camp as one the Yankees' five starters and pitched pretty well in his first start of the year, allowing two earned runs over 6 innings in a 3-2 win over Toronto. Unfortunately, that was the high point of Hughes's season until September as he struggled with his effectiveness and then injury. Hughes's final major league line had him putting up a 6.62 ERA and allowing 4.6 runs more than a replacement level pitcher. The good news is his FIP was a respectable 4.32.
| ian kennedy | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 92 | 92 | 50 | 46 | 11 | 44 | 82 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 0 | 9 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 69 | 66 | 34 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 53 | 3.91 | 4.11 | 5 | 11 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 141 | 129 | 72 | 66 | 16 | 68 | 120 | 4.24 | 4.42 | 4 | 18 |
| 2008 zips projection | 148 | 158 | 79 | 72 | 16 | 42 | 94 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 2 | 17 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 46 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 34 | 4.50 | 4.53 | 0 | 5 |
| 2008 average projection | 99 | 98 | 52 | 47 | 11 | 40 | 77 | 4.31 | 4.33 | 2 | 12 |
| 2008 actual totals | 111 | 106 | 65 | 62 | 9 | 48 | 90 | 5.03 | 3.93 | -6 | 5 |
| difference | 12 | 141% | 92% | 104% | 0.72 | -0.40 | -9 | -7 |
Although not as highly regarded as Hughes as a prospect, Kennedy had high expectations borne out of his successful professional debut in 2007. Kennedy was awful in the majors, putting up an ERA of 8.16(albeit with a 5.44 FIP) and allowing 12 runs more than a replacement level pitcher over 39.2 innings.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 actual totals | 164 | 165 | 76 | 72 | 16 | 73 | 123 | 3.95 | 4.30 | 10 | 26 |
Alfredo Aceves came out of nowhere in 2008, as proven by the fact that no projection system forecast him. He's not young, but put up a solid year across three levels of the minors before debuting effectively in the majors.
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
2009
| phil hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 82 | 84 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 31 | 68 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 2 | 10 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 84 | 83 | 46 | 43 | 9 | 32 | 65 | 4.61 | 4.19 | -1 | 7 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 85 | 88 | 49 | 45 | 9 | 34 | 67 | 4.74 | 4.27 | -2 | 6 |
| 2009 tht projection | 107 | 105 | 55 | 51 | 12 | 41 | 82 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 3 | 13 |
| 2009 zips projection | 59 | 61 | 30 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 42 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 2 | 7 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 106 | 110 | 57 | 54 | 10 | 35 | 81 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 10 |
| 2009 average projection | 87 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 9 | 33 | 67 | 4.45 | 4.10 | 0 | 9 |
| phil hughes cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 117 | 109 | 54 | 51 | 8 | 32 | 99 | 3.91 | 3.21 | 8 | 19 |
| 65% | 112 | 110 | 56 | 52 | 9 | 34 | 89 | 4.22 | 3.58 | 3 | 15 |
| Baseline | 106 | 110 | 57 | 54 | 10 | 35 | 81 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 10 |
| 35% | 96 | 103 | 55 | 51 | 11 | 34 | 69 | 4.84 | 4.31 | -4 | 6 |
| 20% | 85 | 96 | 52 | 49 | 11 | 33 | 57 | 5.15 | 4.67 | -6 | 2 |
Hughes will begin 2009 in the Scranton/WB rotation waiting for an opportunity to come up to the majors. Hughes is still very young, but this will be an important season for him. The projection systems like him to be right around average as far as his value, but with a better than average FIP which indicates they still believe in his upside. I'd love to see Hughes hit his 80% forecast this season, but right now I'd probably settle for him staying healthy all season.
| ian kennedy | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 100 | 101 | 53 | 49 | 12 | 43 | 83 | 4.41 | 4.39 | 1 | 11 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 79 | 81 | 47 | 44 | 8 | 35 | 59 | 5.01 | 4.35 | -5 | 3 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 137 | 138 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 62 | 108 | 4.71 | 4.52 | -3 | 11 |
| 2009 tht projection | 128 | 123 | 71 | 66 | 17 | 57 | 101 | 4.63 | 4.68 | -2 | 11 |
| 2009 zips projection | 128 | 131 | 70 | 65 | 13 | 57 | 94 | 4.57 | 4.39 | -1 | 12 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 140 | 149 | 83 | 75 | 18 | 46 | 95 | 4.84 | 4.48 | -5 | 9 |
| 2009 average projection | 119 | 121 | 67 | 62 | 14 | 50 | 90 | 4.70 | 4.47 | -3 | 9 |
| ian kennedy cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 154 | 151 | 82 | 73 | 15 | 44 | 115 | 4.28 | 3.80 | 4 | 19 |
| 65% | 147 | 151 | 83 | 75 | 16 | 45 | 105 | 4.56 | 4.14 | -1 | 14 |
| Baseline | 140 | 149 | 83 | 75 | 18 | 46 | 95 | 4.84 | 4.48 | -5 | 9 |
| 35% | 126 | 140 | 79 | 72 | 18 | 45 | 81 | 5.12 | 4.82 | -9 | 4 |
| 20% | 112 | 129 | 74 | 67 | 18 | 43 | 68 | 5.40 | 5.15 | -11 | 0 |
Let's trade ____ and Kennedy for someone awesome! If I have to read that crap any more this season I'm going to throw my computer out the window. The people who want to dump Kennedy while still thinking other teams will give up something of value for him are delusional. Here's what we know about Kennedy. He was drafted with the knowledge that he didn't have a super-high ceiling. He's been dominant in the minors as far as his ERA, but his translated BB rate is a concern for me (97 BB in 213.2 minor league innings when translated to MLEs over 2007-2008, roughly 4.1 per 9). Until he can get his control in line, he will struggle at the major league level. There have been plenty of pitchers with similar or less stuff that have been successful in the majors.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 100 | 112 | 59 | 55 | 15 | 34 | 65 | 4.95 | 4.87 | -5 | 5 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 63 | 61 | 29 | 27 | 7 | 23 | 44 | 3.86 | 4.34 | 5 | 11 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 106 | 119 | 64 | 59 | 15 | 36 | 65 | 5.03 | 4.84 | -6 | 4 |
| 2009 zips projection | 147 | 172 | 92 | 85 | 25 | 40 | 77 | 5.19 | 5.18 | -11 | 3 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 170 | 175 | 98 | 91 | 24 | 24 | 91 | 4.83 | 4.37 | -6 | 11 |
| 2009 average projection | 117 | 127 | 67 | 62 | 17 | 34 | 71 | 4.77 | 4.72 | -4 | 8 |
| alfredo aceves cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 187 | 178 | 97 | 90 | 21 | 21 | 110 | 4.32 | 3.80 | 4 | 22 |
| 65% | 178 | 177 | 98 | 91 | 22 | 23 | 100 | 4.58 | 4.09 | -2 | 16 |
| Baseline | 170 | 175 | 98 | 91 | 24 | 24 | 91 | 4.83 | 4.37 | -6 | 11 |
| 35% | 153 | 164 | 93 | 86 | 24 | 24 | 77 | 5.08 | 4.66 | -10 | 5 |
| 20% | 136 | 151 | 86 | 81 | 23 | 23 | 65 | 5.33 | 4.95 | -13 | 1 |
Aceves doesn't appear to have a ton of upside, but he looks like he should slot in a little below average if he meets his base projections. He doesn't have superior stuff, but he's not a soft-tosser either. That's not bad for your ostensible 7/8 starter.
Value
I didn't bother with the value charts here because a) we have no idea how often any of these guys will pitch and b) they're all still under team control and not arbitration-eligible yet.
Conclusion
With the very realistic odds of A.J. Burnett missing time as well as the innings limit that will be imposed on Joba Chamberlain, as well as the high probability that some of the other pitchers on the staff will miss time, there's a very good chances that the Yankees will be relying on this trio of pitchers at some point in 2009. On paper, that doesn't seem like a bad thing, but then again, it didn't seem like a bad thing entering 2008 to have Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation. Hughes had a strong spring, thinking in terms of how he looked rather than putting any weight on his stats, and that bodes well for 2009 I think. He should be first in line when reinforcements are needed. Aceves and Kennedy essentially project equivalently, so the Yankees will likely go to whichever one is pitching better at the time if the need arises.
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