Friday, April 3, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: C.C. Sabathia & A.J. Burnett
Time to churn through the pitching staff. I’ll start with the Yankees’ two big free agent signings, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.
2008| C.C. Sabathia | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 221 | 216 | 93 | 86 | 20 | 45 | 184 | 3.50 | 3.32 | 25 | 47 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 200 | 194 | 86 | 78 | 17 | 46 | 173 | 3.51 | 3.27 | 22 | 42 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 215 | 210 | 92 | 84 | 20 | 53 | 179 | 3.51 | 3.47 | 24 | 45 |
| 2008 zips projection | 214 | 223 | 95 | 87 | 22 | 37 | 165 | 3.66 | 3.51 | 20 | 41 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 222 | 218 | 97 | 88 | 20 | 47 | 181 | 3.57 | 3.38 | 23 | 45 |
| 2008 average projection | 214 | 212 | 93 | 85 | 20 | 46 | 176 | 3.55 | 3.39 | 23 | 44 |
| 2008 actual totals | 253 | 223 | 85 | 76 | 19 | 59 | 251 | 2.70 | 2.89 | 51 | 76 |
| difference | 39 | 122% | 92% | 121% | -0.85 | -0.50 | 28 | 32 |
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
After winning the American League Cy Young award in 2007, C.C. Sabathia headed into his final year before free agency poised to become a very wealthy man as long as he was able to pitch as well as he had in the previous few seasons. Sabathia's projections expected him again be one of the better pitchers in the league, somewhere around four and a half wins above replacement.
Sabathia got off to a horrific start, allowing 32 hits and 27 runs over 18 innings in his first four starts. He righted the ship in start number five, going six scoreless innings and fanning 11. From that start through the end of his time in Cleveland he pitched 104 innings, striking out 109 and putting up an ERA of 2.16 while holding opposing hitters to a line of .223/.264/.327. Of course what Sabathia then did going to Milwaukee has been well documented, as he dominated the National League over 130.2 innings with a 1.65 ERA and 128 Ks, holding opposing hitters to an even worse line of .222/.265/.289.
Sabathia blew away his projection, being worth almost eight wins above a replacement level pitcher.
| A.J. Burnett | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 165 | 154 | 80 | 74 | 17 | 65 | 153 | 4.04 | 3.87 | 9 | 25 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 156 | 143 | 76 | 69 | 17 | 58 | 146 | 3.98 | 3.86 | 9 | 25 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 183 | 164 | 82 | 74 | 16 | 67 | 163 | 3.64 | 3.62 | 18 | 36 |
| 2008 zips projection | 178 | 164 | 82 | 75 | 20 | 61 | 158 | 3.79 | 3.91 | 14 | 32 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 159 | 150 | 79 | 72 | 19 | 55 | 152 | 4.08 | 3.88 | 8 | 23 |
| 2008 average projection | 168 | 155 | 80 | 73 | 18 | 61 | 155 | 3.90 | 3.83 | 11 | 28 |
| 2008 actual totals | 221 | 211 | 109 | 100 | 19 | 86 | 231 | 4.07 | 3.39 | 11 | 33 |
| difference | 53 | 123% | 94% | 114% | 0.16 | -0.43 | 0 | 5 |
A.J. Burnett has top-shelf stuff, as good as anyone in baseball. However, in his career he's been considered a disappointment in many seasons, primarily due to a long history of missed time and results not matching his stuff and peripherals. In general, his projections expected him to be a solid #2 type starter who would miss about five starts or so.
On a rate basis, Burnett underperformed his projections when looking at his ERA. However, his FIP was 3.39 and he struck out batters at a rate 14% higher than expected, while allowing homers at a rate 23% lower than projected. Unfortunately he also walked more batters than projected, but it was a very good season for Burnett if you look at his numbers besides ERA. Burnett's 221 innings were a career high.
2009
Here's how Sabathia and Burnett project for 2009.
| C.C. Sabathia | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 211 | 205 | 87 | 80 | 19 | 43 | 185 | 3.41 | 3.23 | 26 | 47 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 211 | 194 | 81 | 72 | 18 | 50 | 199 | 3.07 | 3.13 | 34 | 55 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 231 | 222 | 96 | 88 | 22 | 53 | 201 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 27 | 51 |
| 2009 tht projection | 214 | 197 | 83 | 77 | 20 | 45 | 189 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 30 | 51 |
| 2009 zips projection | 223 | 214 | 82 | 76 | 21 | 47 | 204 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 36 | 58 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 229 | 222 | 99 | 88 | 21 | 61 | 199 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 26 | 49 |
| 2009 average projection | 220 | 209 | 88 | 80 | 20 | 50 | 196 | 3.29 | 3.28 | 30 | 52 |
| C.C. Sabathia cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 252 | 227 | 98 | 87 | 18 | 58 | 234 | 3.11 | 2.95 | 39 | 64 |
| 65% | 240 | 225 | 98 | 88 | 19 | 60 | 216 | 3.30 | 3.19 | 32 | 56 |
| Baseline | 229 | 222 | 99 | 88 | 21 | 61 | 199 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 26 | 49 |
| 35% | 206 | 206 | 93 | 84 | 21 | 58 | 173 | 3.67 | 3.68 | 19 | 40 |
| 20% | 183 | 189 | 87 | 78 | 20 | 55 | 148 | 3.85 | 3.92 | 13 | 32 |
Sabathia projects as the best or second most valuable pitcher in baseball in almost all the projection systems, jockeying with Roy Halladay. While there's some possible concern about his end of year workload in Milwaukee, his stuff didn't suffer at the end of the season and he passed his physical with the Yankees. As for the people who think that Sabathia "just replaces Mussina", they're wrong. Sabathia projects as 12 runs better than Mussina was in 2008.
| A.J. Burnett | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 167 | 160 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 63 | 164 | 3.88 | 3.61 | 12 | 28 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 187 | 174 | 91 | 83 | 19 | 71 | 181 | 3.99 | 3.72 | 11 | 29 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 197 | 187 | 92 | 84 | 19 | 73 | 178 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 15 | 35 |
| 2009 tht projection | 188 | 175 | 87 | 80 | 19 | 70 | 176 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 14 | 32 |
| 2009 zips projection | 179 | 172 | 85 | 79 | 20 | 66 | 170 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 11 | 28 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 192 | 183 | 95 | 87 | 20 | 58 | 180 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 9 | 28 |
| 2009 average projection | 185 | 175 | 88 | 81 | 19 | 67 | 175 | 3.93 | 3.71 | 12 | 30 |
| A.J. Burnett cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 211 | 186 | 94 | 85 | 17 | 55 | 213 | 3.64 | 3.02 | 20 | 41 |
| 65% | 201 | 185 | 95 | 86 | 19 | 57 | 196 | 3.86 | 3.30 | 14 | 35 |
| Baseline | 192 | 183 | 95 | 87 | 20 | 58 | 180 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 9 | 28 |
| 35% | 172 | 171 | 90 | 82 | 20 | 55 | 156 | 4.29 | 3.86 | 4 | 21 |
| 20% | 153 | 157 | 84 | 77 | 20 | 52 | 133 | 4.51 | 4.14 | 0 | 15 |
Burnett's projections are basically similar to what he did in 2008, although they expect him to pitch a little better on a rate basis while pitching fewer innings. For all the consternation about his durability, his average projection expects him to pitch 185 innings. According to CAIRO, that makes him one of the 30 most durable starters heading into 2009.
Value
Sabathia
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 52 | 5.2 |
| 2009 Salary | $23,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $15,493,846 | ($7,506,154) |
| $3,500,000 | $18,076,154 | ($4,923,846) |
| $4,000,000 | $20,658,461 | ($2,341,539) |
| $4,500,000 | $23,240,769 | $240,769 |
| $5,000,000 | $25,823,077 | $2,823,077 |
| $5,500,000 | $28,405,384 | $5,405,384 |
| $6,000,000 | $30,987,692 | $7,987,692 |
Burnett
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 30 | 3.0 |
| 2009 Salary | $16,500,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $9,054,893 | ($7,445,107) |
| $3,500,000 | $10,564,042 | ($5,935,958) |
| $4,000,000 | $12,073,191 | ($4,426,809) |
| $4,500,000 | $13,582,340 | ($2,917,660) |
| $5,000,000 | $15,091,488 | ($1,408,512) |
| $5,500,000 | $16,600,637 | $100,637 |
| $6,000,000 | $18,109,786 | $1,609,786 |
Conclusion
I had Sabathia and Burnett projected as the most valuable free agents available in 2009. I wanted the Yankees to sign Sabathia as soon as I knew he was filing for free agency and the Yankees apparently agreed.
As far as Burnett, I'm not as down on his signing as most analysts. His projected value is in line with his contract if a marginal win is worth $5.5M to the Yanks. Is he an injury risk? Yeah, but so is ANY pitcher. As a fan, I hated when the Yankees faced Burnett because when he was on his game, he was unhittable. It'll be fun to be on the other side now. Drilling Burnett down to his wins above replacement is important, but as far as entertainment value, Burnett starts will be a blast to watch.
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