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Thursday, March 27, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Rest of the Pen

I've pretty much hit the key pitchers on the Yankees individually, so now it's time to close out the Looking Ahead to 2008 series with the guys in the back of the bullpen. THere's quite a few candidates for just a few slots, so I'll just give the projections and a little summary about each guy.

Jonathan Albaladejo
Jonathan Albaladejo G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 37 2 59 64 33 31 7 23 45 4.73 4.39 -2 4 0 5
marcel 17 10 32 30 15 14 3 11 25 3.94 3.89 2 5 2 4
pecota 49 4 58 59 31 28 7 23 40 4.36 4.57 1 6 -1 4
zips 42 2 75 79 46 42 15 25 56 5.04 5.31 -5 3 -8 -2
cairo 18 0 29 27 14 14 4 9 21 4.34 4.48 0 3 0 2
average 33 3 51 52 28 26 7 18 37 4.59 4.65 -1 4 -2 3
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 18 0 29 22 10 10 2 6 26 3.18 2.95 4 7 5 7
65% 18 0 29 24 12 12 3 8 23 3.76 3.71 2 5 2 5
Baseline 18 0 29 27 14 14 4 9 21 4.34 4.48 0 3 0 2
35% 18 0 29 30 16 16 5 11 19 4.93 5.24 -1 1 -3 0
20% 18 0 29 32 18 18 6 12 16 5.51 6.00 -3 0 -5 -3


RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement
FRSAA: FIP runs saved above average
FRSAR: FIP runs saved above replacement

Albaladejo came over from the Washington Nationals for Tyler Clippard in the offseason. According to his scouting report here his fastball has been clocked as high as 95 mph at times but varies a lot. His projections aren't particulary impressive, but he's relatively young and his stuff supposedly grades well. My guess is he won't break camp with the team but will see some time over the course of the season.

Chris Britton
Chris Britton G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 53 0 66 67 33 31 7 23 53 4.23 4.02 2 8 2 8
marcel 22 12 37 35 18 16 4 13 27 3.89 4.20 2 6 1 4
pecota 51 2 56 55 29 27 7 22 42 4.26 4.60 1 7 -2 3
zips 56 0 78 74 35 32 9 22 67 3.69 3.83 7 14 5 11
cairo 35 0 51 52 23 22 5 14 37 3.88 3.85 3 8 3 7
average 44 3 58 57 28 26 6 19 45 3.99 4.07 3 9 2 7
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 35 0 51 45 18 17 3 10 43 3.05 2.82 8 13 9 13
65% 35 0 51 48 21 20 4 12 40 3.47 3.33 6 11 6 10
Baseline 35 0 51 52 23 22 5 14 37 3.88 3.85 3 8 3 7
35% 35 0 51 56 25 24 6 16 34 4.30 4.36 1 6 0 4
20% 35 0 51 59 28 27 7 18 31 4.71 4.88 -1 4 -3 1


There must be something about Britton that the Yankees don't like. He's done nothing but get batters out in the minors (2.90 ERA) and majors (3.39 ERA) but he only got 12.2 innings with the Yanks in 2007 and has been assigned to Scranton to start the season. He's in a similar situation as Albaladejo I"d guess, competing for the role of first callup.

Brian Bruney
Brian Bruney G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 51 0 50 50 28 26 6 27 43 4.68 4.66 -1 4 -2 3
marcel 43 18 52 50 28 26 5 28 44 4.50 4.37 0 5 0 4
pecota 27 0 30 27 16 15 4 19 27 4.60 4.86 0 3 -2 1
zips 62 0 61 62 39 36 8 37 48 5.31 5.15 -6 0 -5 0
cairo 41 0 42 40 25 24 5 27 34 5.14 5.06 -3 1 -3 0
average 45 4 47 46 27 25 6 28 39 4.88 4.82 -2 3 -2 2
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 41 0 42 34 20 19 3 22 40 4.09 3.72 2 6 3 7
65% 41 0 42 37 23 22 4 24 37 4.62 4.39 -1 3 0 3
Baseline 41 0 42 40 25 24 5 27 34 5.14 5.06 -3 1 -3 0
35% 41 0 42 43 28 26 6 30 31 5.67 5.73 -6 -1 -6 -3
20% 41 0 42 46 30 29 7 32 28 6.19 6.40 -8 -4 -10 -6


Great fastball, awful command. Bruney lost about 20 lbs this offseason AND grew a mullet. If Bruney can throw with better control he could be great in the pen, but to this point there's nothing in his track record that suggests he will. If he does what he's projected, he's a below average reliever, but he has the talent to be better than that and he's young enough that improvement is a very real possibility.

Sean Henn
Sean Henn G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 33 9 70 79 44 41 9 33 49 5.27 4.89 -6 1 -4 2
marcel 20 13 47 51 30 28 6 23 35 5.36 4.84 -5 0 -3 1
pecota 39 1 43 43 25 23 5 21 31 4.72 4.73 -1 3 -2 2
zips 32 12 90 101 58 53 11 43 55 5.30 5.00 -8 1 -7 1
cairo 20 3 38 45 25 23 4 20 25 5.45 4.83 -4 0 -2 1
average 29 8 58 64 36 34 7 28 39 5.24 4.88 -5 1 -3 2
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 20 3 38 38 20 18 2 16 30 4.31 3.53 1 4 3 7
65% 20 3 38 42 23 21 3 18 28 4.88 4.18 -2 2 1 4
Baseline 20 3 38 45 25 23 4 20 25 5.45 4.83 -4 0 -2 1
35% 20 3 38 48 28 25 5 22 23 6.02 5.48 -7 -3 -5 -2
20% 20 3 38 52 30 28 6 24 20 6.58 6.13 -9 -5 -8 -4


I'm only listing him here because he's still in the organization. He is expected to start the season on the DL, but I don't see a spot for him when he comes off. Unfortunately for Henn, Tommy John surgery robbed him of some of his velocity and he hasn't been able to compensate by improving his secondary pitches or throwing more strikes. Those projections are decidedly ugly.

Kei Igawa
Kei Igawa G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 26 26 155 174 95 88 24 60 121 5.11 4.81 -11 4 -8 5
marcel 16 15 89 96 54 52 14 40 67 5.26 5.09 -8 1 -7 0
pecota 33 13 90 98 56 52 14 38 67 5.16 4.92 -7 2 -6 2
zips 27 26 168 188 108 97 29 53 114 5.20 5.03 -14 3 -13 2
cairo 21 20 132 151 83 82 28 38 93 5.59 5.41 -16 -3 -16 -4
average 25 20 127 141 79 74 22 46 92 5.26 5.05 -11 1 -10 1
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 21 20 132 139 74 73 23 32 103 4.97 4.60 -7 6 -4 8
65% 21 20 132 145 78 77 25 35 98 5.28 5.01 -12 1 -10 2
Baseline 21 20 132 151 83 82 28 38 93 5.59 5.41 -16 -3 -16 -4
35% 21 20 132 157 88 87 31 41 88 5.90 5.82 -21 -8 -21 -10
20% 21 20 132 163 92 91 33 44 83 6.21 6.22 -25 -12 -27 -16


Not sure what to say about Igawa except that the more he pitches in the bigs this year, the more trouble the Yankees will obviously be in. Unless he can consistently keep the ball down he'll keep giving up too many HRs.

Jeff Karstens
Jeff Karstens G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 23 20 110 129 71 66 17 43 66 5.40 5.18 -11 0 -10 -1
marcel 13 11 56 61 34 31 7 21 35 4.98 4.70 -3 2 -2 3
pecota 31 10 82 96 59 55 15 36 48 6.01 5.72 -14 -6 -12 -5
zips 28 26 160 190 111 101 30 49 91 5.68 5.42 -22 -6 -19 -5
cairo 10 8 50 58 31 30 8 17 30 5.40 5.10 -5 0 -4 0
average 21 15 92 107 61 57 15 33 54 5.56 5.29 -11 -2 -10 -2
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 10 8 50 50 25 25 5 13 35 4.41 3.90 0 5 3 7
65% 10 8 50 54 28 27 7 15 33 4.91 4.50 -2 3 -1 3
Baseline 10 8 50 58 31 30 8 17 30 5.40 5.10 -5 0 -4 0
35% 10 8 50 62 34 33 9 19 27 5.89 5.70 -8 -3 -8 -3
20% 10 8 50 66 37 35 11 21 25 6.39 6.30 -11 -6 -11 -7


Karstens is kind of in the same boat as Henn Igawa. He's on the team and he'll probably get some time this year, but it won't be good if he does.

Ross Ohlendorf
Ross Ohlendorf G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 26 17 109 135 74 68 16 42 66 5.61 5.05 -14 -3 -9 1
marcel 7 6 28 28 14 13 3 10 22 4.18 4.09 1 4 1 3
pecota 26 7 63 79 45 42 9 24 37 5.94 5.08 -10 -4 -5 0
zips 27 23 162 198 105 96 24 42 81 5.33 4.90 -16 1 -10 4
cairo 23 16 109 141 68 67 17 29 60 5.53 4.92 -13 -2 -7 2
average 22 14 94 116 61 57 14 29 53 5.46 4.92 -10 -1 -6 2
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 23 16 109 129 60 59 13 24 68 4.86 4.14 -5 6 3 12
65% 23 16 109 135 64 63 15 26 64 5.19 4.53 -9 2 -2 7
Baseline 23 16 109 141 68 67 17 29 60 5.53 4.92 -13 -2 -7 2
35% 23 16 109 147 72 71 19 32 56 5.87 5.32 -17 -6 -12 -2
20% 23 16 109 153 76 75 21 34 52 6.21 5.71 -21 -10 -16 -7
Relief Projection G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
65 0 71 78 37 34 10 24 47 4.37 4.79 -8 -1 -4 2


Ohlendorf's projections are pretty bad, but if we convert them to relief they're not that bad. He doesn't have much experience coming of the pen yet but I think with some work in AAA he could possibly be a big contributor in the second half. He has very good stuff coming out of the pen.

Scott Patterson
Scott Patterson G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 35 2 48 51 27 25 5 20 41 4.69 4.10 -1 4 1 5
zips 41 0 52 52 26 24 7 14 43 4.15 4.10 2 7 1 6
cairo 39 2 64 63 29 28 8 17 51 3.94 4.03 4 10 2 8
average 23 1 33 33 16 15 4 10 27 4.23 4.07 1 4 1 4
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 39 2 64 55 24 23 5 13 58 3.19 3.04 9 15 9 15
65% 39 2 64 59 26 25 7 15 55 3.57 3.53 6 13 6 11
Baseline 39 2 64 63 29 28 8 17 51 3.94 4.03 4 10 2 8
35% 39 2 64 67 32 31 9 19 47 4.31 4.52 1 7 -1 4
20% 39 2 64 71 34 33 11 21 44 4.68 5.02 -2 5 -5 1


Patterson came out of the independent leagues and put up a very good year in Trenton last year. His stuff isn't overwhelming, but he has very good deception with his delivery and frame and has excelled this spring. While spring training status are too small of a sample to make any definitive assessment of a player's ability, Patterson has looked really good.

Edwar Ramirez
Edwar Ramirez G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 40 0 53 46 23 21 5 23 64 3.57 3.31 5 11 6 11
marcel 24 13 35 37 21 20 5 15 31 5.14 4.57 -3 1 -1 2
pecota 58 1 61 48 26 24 7 31 76 3.61 3.65 6 12 5 10
zips 49 0 64 64 37 34 11 27 65 4.78 4.67 -2 4 -2 3
cairo 21 0 33 29 14 13 4 13 37 3.55 3.72 3 7 2 5
average 38 3 49 45 24 22 6 22 55 4.12 3.98 2 7 2 6
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 21 0 33 24 10 9 2 9 43 2.56 2.23 7 10 8 11
65% 21 0 33 26 12 11 3 11 40 3.05 2.97 5 8 5 8
Baseline 21 0 33 29 14 13 4 13 37 3.55 3.72 3 7 2 5
35% 21 0 33 32 16 15 5 15 34 4.04 4.46 2 5 0 2
20% 21 0 33 34 18 17 6 17 31 4.53 5.20 0 3 -3 0


Another Indy league signing, Edwar has an outstanding changeup which he used to good effect to tear up the minors last year. At the major league level Edwar struggled last year and will likely continue to struggle until he is able to better set up the changeup by getting ahead in the count with his fastball and slider. His fastball is about 88-90, which is fine if he can put it where he wants. Hell, it's worked for Trevor Hoffman for a long time. His projections aren't too bad, but I think his MLEs probably overstate his ability against major leaguers and he needs some more time in the minors to get his fastball command where it needs to be.

Darrell Rasner
Darrell Rasner G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 17 14 73 87 45 42 10 23 41 5.18 4.80 -6 2 -4 3
marcel 21 14 64 66 34 31 7 22 43 4.36 4.31 1 7 0 6
pecota 22 8 60 71 38 35 8 21 30 5.24 5.01 -5 1 -4 1
zips 23 19 114 135 71 65 15 27 54 5.13 4.67 -8 3 -4 6
cairo 8 7 38 44 22 21 5 11 22 4.97 4.62 -2 2 -1 2
average 18 12 70 81 42 39 9 21 38 5.00 4.69 -4 3 -3 3
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 8 7 38 37 17 16 3 8 27 3.89 3.35 2 6 4 7
65% 8 7 38 41 20 19 4 9 24 4.43 3.98 0 4 2 5
Baseline 8 7 38 44 22 21 5 11 22 4.97 4.62 -2 2 -1 2
35% 8 7 38 47 24 23 6 13 20 5.52 5.26 -4 -1 -4 -1
20% 8 7 38 51 27 26 7 14 17 6.06 5.89 -7 -3 -7 -3


Rasner's a guy who probably deserves a role in the majors somewhere as a swingman. He doesn't have much upside but he's above replacement level. If the Yankees are insistent on taking a long man, he's a better choice than Karstens or Igawa IMO.

Billy Traber
Billy Traber G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 34 15 107 117 57 53 12 33 71 4.46 4.26 0 11 1 10
marcel 16 11 56 63 32 30 6 20 39 4.82 4.27 -2 3 0 5
pecota 28 3 40 45 23 21 5 14 26 4.65 4.54 -1 3 -1 3
zips 35 19 133 150 82 75 19 40 64 5.08 5.00 -9 4 -10 2
cairo 22 10 77 87 41 40 8 22 51 4.68 4.08 -2 6 2 9
average 27 12 83 92 47 44 10 26 50 4.77 4.49 -3 5 -1 6
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 22 10 77 78 35 34 5 17 58 3.94 3.24 5 12 10 16
65% 22 10 77 82 38 37 7 20 55 4.31 3.66 1 9 6 12
Baseline 22 10 77 87 41 40 8 22 51 4.68 4.08 -2 6 2 9
35% 22 10 77 92 44 43 9 24 47 5.04 4.51 -5 3 -1 5
20% 22 10 77 96 47 46 11 27 44 5.41 4.93 -8 0 -5 2
Career Splits AVG OBP SLG PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HR/BF BB/BF K/BF
Overall .299 .361 .461 887 786 235 53 1 24 67 140 0.03 0.08 0.16
Vs RHB .329 .382 .512 655 586 193 45 1 20 44 87 0.03 0.07 0.13
Vs LHB .210 .303 .310 232 200 42 8 0 4 23 53 0.02 0.10 0.23
Platoon Differential 157% 126% 165% 177% 68% 172%
Projected Splits AVG OBP SLG PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HR/BF BB/BF K/BF
Overall .292 .343 .442 391 355 104 20 1 11 26 56 0.03 0.07 0.14
Vs RHB .321 .366 .491 289 265 85 17 1 9 17 35 0.03 0.06 0.12
Vs LHB .205 .280 .298 102 90 19 3 0 2 9 21 0.02 0.09 0.21
Platoon Differential 157% 130% 165% 177% 68% 172%


Billy Traber is a failed starter who's always done pretty well against lefties. He's been added to the 40 man roster and it looks like he has a very good chance to make the team. I added his projected lines against LHB and RHB, which I calculated by using his projected overall line against and then applying his career platoon ratios to it. If he really can hold lefties to a .205/.280/.298 then he's a very good tactical option in a role where he has to get a key lefty out. What's scary is righties hit him like 2006 Robinson Cano.

Jose Veras
Jose Veras G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 40 0 44 45 24 22 5 20 37 4.50 4.36 0 4 0 4
marcel 26 12 31 30 17 16 3 12 22 4.65 4.20 -1 2 1 3
pecota 41 2 47 48 27 25 5 24 39 4.66 4.41 -1 4 0 4
zips 54 0 61 67 38 35 9 25 41 5.16 5.00 -5 1 -4 1
cairo 24 0 33 36 17 17 4 13 26 4.64 4.38 -1 3 0 3
average 37 3 43 45 25 23 5 19 33 4.76 4.53 -1 3 -1 3
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 24 0 33 30 13 13 2 9 31 3.51 2.96 4 7 5 8
65% 24 0 33 33 15 15 3 11 29 4.07 3.67 1 5 2 5
Baseline 24 0 33 36 17 17 4 13 26 4.64 4.38 -1 3 0 3
35% 24 0 33 39 19 19 5 15 23 5.20 5.09 -3 1 -3 0
20% 24 0 33 42 21 21 6 17 21 5.76 5.81 -5 -1 -5 -3


Veras is basically the same story as Bruney, with maybe a little less velocity and a little bit better breaking pitch. He's another guy who can't seem to put the ball where he wants and unless he can learn to do that he's not much more than a back-end of the pen guy.

The Yankees are likely going with 12 man pitching staff this year. Here are the guys who seemingly have spots locked up:

SP - Wang
SP - Pettitte
SP - Mussina
SP - Hughes
SP - Kennedy
CL - Mo
SU - Joba
MR - Farnsworth
MR - Hawkins

That's nine, which leaves 3 more slots open. WIth Hughes and Kennedy's workload being closely monitored one slot should go to a longman, which is probably Rasner. They may not take Traber, but I can't see why they wouldn't, so that leaves one more slot to one of Albaladejo, Britton, Bruney, Ohlendorf, Patterson, Ramirez or Veras. I am fairly certain that all but Bruney have options so that may end up keeping Bruney on the team, although injuries and/or ineffectiveness will surely lead to some shuffling along the way. Based on the projections the best of the group is Britton, although the difference between him, Patterson and Ramriez is negligble.

Conclusion
There's some intriguing talent in some of the names listed above, but a lot of uncertainty about how good they may be in 2008. My WAG is they go with Bruney, Traber, and Rasner. One thing the Yankees should have is the flexibility to mix and match with people until they find a combination that works, and hopefully with Joe Girardi they have a manager who's willing to be flexibile with his bullpen.

Tomorrow I wrap up the pitching staff and look at how the Yankees as a team project.

--Posted at 8:45 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (690)


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