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Friday, March 7, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench

We've gone through the likely starters for the 2008 Yankees, so now it's time to take a look at the guys on the bench. I won't look back at 2007 for these guys, I'll just look at what they project to do this year.

Wilson Betemit
Scott Proctor and his tattered arm were shipped to Los Angeles of Los Angeles last season to acquire Betemit. Betemit's a fairly young player who was once a highly touted prospect in the Braves' farm system. Although he's a switch-hitter, he has exhibited a very significant platoon split in his career.

Vs RHP: .268/.347/.464 in 800 PA
Vs LHP: .232/.281/.353 in 227 PA

Now, 227 plate appearances aren't enough to give us a solid window of Betemit's actual skill vs LHP. The sigma on his OPS vs lefties is .149, so we can say we can estimate his true talent OPS against lefties to be somewhere in the range of .485 - .783. So it's tough to say that Betemit is really a platoon player just yet.

Here's how Betemit's 2008 projections look. I am comparing him to the average 3B here.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	368	331	46	84	17	1	14	41	2	1	36	89	1	.254	.329	.438	-1	9
marcel	383	338	47	90	19	1	14	51	3	1	39	89	1	.266	.339	.453	2	12
pecota	265	234	31	60	13	1	9	36	2	1	27	69	1	.255	.331	.437	-1	6
zips	336	301	42	78	17	1	14	46	1	1	34	86	1	.259	.336	.462	2	11
cairo	228	200	30	51	10	1	8	27	1	1	22	51	1	.254	.326	.428	-2	4
average	316	281	39	72	15	1	12	40	2	1	32	77	1	.258	.332	.443	0	8
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	228	200	35	58	13	2	11	32	1	0	27	44	2	.290	.382	.530	9	15
65%	228	200	33	55	11	1	9	30	1	0	25	47	1	.272	.354	.479	3	9
Baseline	228	200	30	51	10	1	8	27	1	1	22	51	1	.254	.326	.428	-2	4
35%	228	200	27	47	8	0	6	24	0	1	20	54	0	.236	.298	.377	-7	-1
20%	228	200	24	44	7	0	5	22	0	2	18	58	0	.219	.270	.326	-13	-7

Betemit projects to hit about as well as an average 3B. which is pretty damn good for a backup IF.

Defensively, Betemit could see some time at first base depending on how the great Giambi experiment pans out, or in the late innings for defense, but right now his primarily role will be backing up the entire infield. He's a good bat for an infielder, but reviews are mixed on his defense. The numbers aren't great, but we have the small sample size issue to contend with.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2007	AL	NYY	1B	Wilson Betemit	26	14	9	74	67	4	0	9	14	18	.778	-1	-1	-18
2005	NL	Atl	2B	Wilson Betemit	23	1	1	8	1	3	0	0	3	3	1.000	1	0	77
2006	NL	Atl	2B	Wilson Betemit	24	10	9	69	26	20	0	7	17	22	.773	-1	-1	-15
2007	AL	NYY	2B	Wilson Betemit	26	2	2	17	3	7	0	1	6	7	.857	0	0	15
2007	NL	LA	2B	Wilson Betemit	26	1	1	6	1	0	0	1	0	2	.000	-2	-1	-291
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	22	7	4	39	2	6	0	2	7	7	1.000	2	1	47
2005	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	23	63	46	431	26	94	6	6	103	124	.831	5	4	13
2006	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	24	30	20	204	8	40	3	9	41	51	.804	1	1	6
2006	NL	LA	3B	Wilson Betemit	24	49	45	398	24	83	4	9	83	109	.761	-3	-2	-7
2007	AL	NYY	3B	Wilson Betemit	26	14	5	56	1	14	2	3	15	19	.789	1	0	11
2007	NL	LA	3B	Wilson Betemit	26	53	39	353	20	60	4	6	62	86	.721	-4	-4	-15
2004	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	22	11	7	75	12	30	3	5	29	35	.829	0	0	-6
2005	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	23	25	10	136	24	40	1	10	36	48	.750	-4	-3	-36
2006	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	24	18	10	92	20	33	5	10	27	40	.675	-6	-5	-75
2007	AL	NYY	SS	Wilson Betemit	26	8	4	39	9	9	1	2	8	9	.889	1	0	17
2007	NL	LA	SS	Wilson Betemit	26	2	0	7	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	26
Projection			1B			14	9	223	67	4	0	9	14	18	.778	0	0	0
Projection			2B			4	4	92	10	10	0	3	8	10	.791	-2	-2	-27
Projection			3B			43	32	896	17	59	4	6	62	79	.779	-1	0	-1
Projection			SS			15	7	239	15	26	2	6	23	30	.750	0	0	-3

I debated including the defensive numbers for any of the bench candidates since there are sample size issues, but I'll present them with the caveat that there is not enough data to make any definitive assessment of what they may tell us. I'd say Betemit is a decent glove at third and first and probably a bit stretched in the middle infield although he can handle it. Betemit's a lock to be on the roster, and for good reason. He could very well be the best backup infielder in baseball.

Jose Molina
After the Wil Nieves Experience™ got to be too much, the Yankees picked up Molina mid-season from the hated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jeff Kennard. Molina's not a good hitter, but that's why he's a backup catcher. Here are his projections for 2008, prepare to be underwhelmed.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	267	254	28	61	13	1	6	30	2	1	12	57	1	.240	.277	.370	-3	3
marcel	326	299	30	74	17	1	6	34	3	1	17	64	2	.247	.285	.371	-2	4
pecota	170	155	14	37	8	0	3	18	2	1	9	36	1	.240	.278	.346	-3	1
zips	203	194	17	47	10	0	3	23	2	0	8	44	1	.242	.276	.340	-4	1
cairo	222	203	21	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	-2	2
average	238	221	22	54	12	0	4	26	2	1	12	49	1	.242	.279	.358	-3	2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	222	203	25	56	14	1	6	29	3	0	15	37	3	.276	.333	.450	7	12
65%	222	203	23	53	12	1	5	26	2	0	14	40	2	.259	.307	.406	2	7
Baseline	222	203	21	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	-2	2
35%	222	203	18	46	9	0	3	21	1	1	10	47	1	.224	.254	.318	-7	-3
20%	222	203	16	42	7	0	2	19	0	1	8	50	0	.207	.228	.274	-12	-7

Pray for Jorge Posada's continued good health, although to be fair Molina's defense might make him worthy of a roster spot.

Year	Last	First	Tm	Lg	Inn	SB	CS	CS%	PBWPR	TER	FER	Tot R	R/140
2004	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	524	23	19	45%	1	1	0	6	14
2005	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	480	19	18	49%	-3	0	0	2	6
2006	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	603	27	19	41%	-5	0	-2	-4	-8
2007	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	323	18	7	28%	0	-1	0	-2	-8
2007	Molina	Jose	NYA	AL	169	13	5	28%	0	1	0	1	6
Projection	Molina	Jose	NYA	AL	428	20	14	40%	-2	0	0	-3	-8

Molina projects to be below average defensively, mainly due to a poor projection on passed balls and wild pitches. His throwing and error rate are about average. Maybe he can recover some of that 2004 defensive magic.

Although Francisco Cervelli has had a couple of promising seasons in the minors, Molina's probably got his spot on the bench locked up this year.

Morgan Ensberg
Ensberg is coming off a very disappointing season after hitting 59 HRs and walking 186 times combined over 2005 and 2006. His performance was attributed at least partially to a shoulder injury. If that was indeed the case and he is healthy now, he has a lot of upside as not just a bench player, but as a potential starting first baseman. Here's how Ensberg projects for 2008 as compared to an average 1B.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	420	356	54	86	16	1	15	46	2	2	61	82	3	.242	.357	.419	-3	8
marcel	412	346	56	87	17	1	17	54	3	3	59	81	3	.251	.362	.454	1	12
pecota	277	229	38	57	11	1	12	38	2	1	42	57	2	.249	.367	.457	2	9
zips	475	395	60	96	18	1	20	59	1	3	76	105	4	.243	.371	.446	1	14
cairo	431	363	56	93	18	1	18	58	2	3	62	77	3	.255	.366	.459	2	14
average	403	338	53	84	16	1	16	51	2	2	60	81	3	.248	.365	.447	0	12
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	431	363	63	102	22	3	22	65	3	1	70	68	5	.282	.411	.538	17	29
65%	431	363	59	97	20	2	20	62	3	2	66	73	4	.268	.388	.499	10	22
Baseline	431	363	56	93	18	1	18	58	2	3	62	77	3	.255	.366	.459	2	14
35%	431	363	52	88	16	1	16	54	1	4	58	82	2	.242	.344	.419	-6	6
20%	431	363	48	83	13	0	14	50	1	5	54	86	1	.229	.321	.379	-14	-2

Again, we don't know how healthy he is, but the projections are pretty encouraging and there is some upside here.

Also of note are Ensberg's career splits. Versus lefties he has hit .284/.406/.530 in his career over 686 PA, compared to .258/.350/.456 versus righties. Even in his down 2007 he hit .257/.345/.486 versus lefties.

Ensberg's primarily played 3B in his career, but I think he should be reasonably competent at first base because of that infield experience. Here are his career defensive numbers at 3B.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2002	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	27	43	37	328	28	76	8	5	80	110	.727	-5	-4	-16
2003	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	27	111	89	818	77	184	9	18	195	248	.786	6	5	9
2004	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	28	118	103	921	80	164	13	23	180	243	.741	-7	-6	-9
2005	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	29	148	147	1286	100	296	15	31	324	403	.804	5	4	5
2006	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	30	117	106	975	80	230	12	25	247	301	.821	11	9	13
2007	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	32	68	52	492	36	107	11	12	118	161	.733	-6	-5	-15
2007	NL	SD	3B	Morgan Ensberg	32	12	10	93	3	29	1	3	29	32	.906	4	3	53
			3B			102	91	2474	67	183	11	20	198	252	.786	2	1	1

I'd worry about how Ensberg may handle scooping throws, but other than that I think anyone that can play an average 3B should at the very least be average at 1B. Couple that with a bat that projects around average and with a tendency for lefty-mashing, and Ensberg seems like a good guy to have on the bench as well.

Shelley Duncan
The man, the myth, the legend. Duncan scuffled around the minors for most of his career until breaking through in 2007 and getting a shot at the majors as a 27 year old rookie. Duncan slammed 7 HRs in 74 MLB at bats and ended the season with a line of .257/.329/.554. Duncan's projections for 2008 aren't very good because of his lackluster performance in the minors before 2007.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	465	425	58	98	19	1	21	60	2	2	36	113	4	.231	.297	.428	-11	2
marcel	242	215	35	58	10	1	10	34	3	1	22	45	2	.270	.339	.465	0	7
pecota	460	412	51	98	19	1	21	70	3	1	39	112	4	.239	.308	.439	-7	5
zips	446	405	45	98	18	1	24	74	1	2	38	103	3	.242	.312	.469	-4	9
cairo	369	334	44	84	16	1	19	58	0	0	30	77	2	.250	.316	.477	-2	9
average	396	358	48	88	16	1	19	59	2	1	33	88	3	.246	.314	.456	-4	7
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	369	334	51	93	20	2	24	66	1	0	36	69	4	.278	.360	.560	12	23
65%	369	334	47	88	18	1	22	62	0	0	33	73	3	.264	.338	.518	5	16
Baseline	369	334	44	84	16	1	19	58	0	0	30	77	2	.250	.316	.477	-2	9
35%	369	334	41	79	14	0	17	55	0	1	28	82	2	.236	.294	.435	-9	2
20%	369	334	37	74	12	0	15	51	0	1	25	86	1	.223	.272	.393	-16	-5

I think Duncan may be better than what those numbers show because I think he made some adjustments in his game that allowed him to play like he did in 2007. I can see him as a .250/.320/.480 type hitter with HR power, and that's a damn fine bench player.

Defensively, we don't have much data on Duncan, but the scouting reports see him as a below average defender at either first base or the OF corners.

Jason Lane
Lane's a long-shot to make the roster. He's a similar player to Shelley Duncan, but 3 years older and with a couple of bad seasons in his recent past (.201/.318/.392 in 2006 and .175/.254/.345 in 2007). Despite being a righty he doesn't have a huge platoon split (.768 OPS vs RPH, .779 vs LHP). His projections for 2008, as you may imagine, are a little ugly.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	407	363	48	87	18	1	14	46	2	2	40	74	4	.240	.322	.410	-8	3
marcel	332	294	39	68	14	1	13	44	3	2	30	63	3	.231	.304	.418	-7	2
pecota	321	285	35	66	14	1	11	43	4	1	28	61	3	.232	.302	.404	-8	1
zips	434	391	46	90	20	1	15	56	2	2	38	88	5	.230	.306	.402	-11	1
cairo	342	302	39	74	16	1	13	46	2	1	32	62	3	.245	.319	.434	-4	5
average	367	327	41	77	16	1	13	47	3	2	34	69	4	.236	.311	.413	-8	2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	342	302	45	83	20	2	17	53	3	0	38	54	5	.274	.365	.518	9	18
65%	342	302	42	78	18	2	15	49	3	1	35	58	4	.259	.342	.476	2	12
Baseline	342	302	39	74	16	1	13	46	2	1	32	62	3	.245	.319	.434	-4	5
35%	342	302	36	70	14	1	11	43	1	2	29	66	2	.231	.295	.392	-11	-2
20%	342	302	33	65	12	0	9	39	1	2	26	70	1	.217	.272	.350	-18	-9

Defensively, Lane does have the ability to play CF which Duncan does not. However, he doesn't grade well defensively if you believe zone rating.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2004	NL	Hou	1B	Jason Lane	27	3	1	13	13	1	1	3	2	2	1.000	0	0	27
2006	NL	Hou	1B	Jason Lane	29	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2002	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	26	1	1	12	4	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	0	53
2003	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	26	6	2	23	2	0	0	0	2	4	.500	-1	-1	-78
2004	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	27	17	3	49	8	0	0	0	7	10	.700	-2	-1	-39
2005	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	28	6	4	37	11	0	0	0	11	13	.846	0	0	-13
2006	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	29	5	1	17	5	0	0	0	5	6	.833	0	0	-15
2007	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	31	36	27	261	80	2	0	1	77	88	.875	0	0	0
2007	NL	SD	CF	Jason Lane	31	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	137
2002	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	26	11	1	22	4	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	0	28
2003	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	26	3	1	14	3	0	0	0	3	3	1.000	0	0	33
2004	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	27	35	6	102	24	2	1	0	22	24	.917	1	1	16
2005	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	28	4	3	24	3	0	0	0	3	7	.429	-3	-3	-153
2006	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	29	6	1	23	6	0	0	0	6	6	1.000	1	1	43
2007	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	31	4	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2002	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	26	27	16	151	39	3	1	1	39	49	.796	-4	-4	-35
2003	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	26	2	0	6	2	0	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	51
2004	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	27	24	13	141	28	0	0	0	27	31	.871	0	0	1
2005	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	28	137	126	1116	225	4	6	0	203	248	.819	-13	-11	-14
2006	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	29	89	73	679	155	1	0	0	149	183	.814	-11	-9	-19
2007	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	31	18	15	128	43	0	0	0	40	47	.851	-1	-1	-13
2007	NL	SD	RF	Jason Lane	31	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	1B		32	2	0	17	7	0	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	CF		32	16	9	285	28	1	0	0	27	31	.859	-4	-3	-17
Projection	AL	NYY	LF		32	9	2	86	6	0	0	0	6	7	.843	-4	-4	-62
Projection	AL	NYY	RF		32	57	48	1314	98	1	1	0	91	111	.823	-6	-5	-5

I'd have a tough time building a case for Lane over Ensberg or Duncan, unless the Yankees need an OF more than they need a backup corner IF.

Nick Green
The triumphant return of a Yankee legend. Green's the prototypical utility player. He projects to be bad on offense.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	388	358	43	85	16	2	12	44	3	3	25	101	5	.237	.296	.394	-9	1
marcel	216	189	27	45	9	1	4	19	3	2	19	49	4	.238	.315	.360	-5	0
pecota	457	410	47	97	21	2	12	51	6	4	34	129	6	.237	.300	.385	-10	1
zips	370	341	36	88	17	2	11	38	3	3	25	90	4	.258	.316	.416	-4	6
cairo	265	237	30	63	11	2	7	28	2	1	18	57	4	.266	.321	.418	-2	5
average	339	306	37	76	15	2	9	35	3	3	25	83	5	.247	.310	.395	-6	3
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	265	237	35	71	14	3	10	33	3	0	22	49	6	.299	.374	.511	10	16
65%	265	237	33	67	13	3	8	31	3	1	20	53	5	.283	.348	.464	4	10
Baseline	265	237	30	63	11	2	7	28	2	1	18	57	4	.266	.321	.418	-2	5
35%	265	237	27	59	9	1	6	25	1	2	16	61	3	.249	.294	.371	-8	-1
20%	265	237	24	55	8	1	4	23	1	2	14	65	2	.232	.267	.325	-14	-7

He can play pretty much any infield position, although not necessarily all that well.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2006	AL	NYY	1B	Nick Green	27	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	194
2004	NL	Atl	2B	Nick Green	25	75	61	572	137	203	8	44	187	222	.842	4	3	8
2005	AL	TB	2B	Nick Green	26	91	83	731	141	195	4	44	186	240	.775	-11	-8	-16
2006	AL	TB	2B	Nick Green	27	4	4	32	7	8	0	3	7	9	.778	0	0	-14
2006	AL	NYY	2B	Nick Green	27	19	11	103	37	29	1	6	26	35	.743	-3	-2	-30
2007	AL	Sea	2B	Nick Green	29	2	1	8	2	2	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0	24
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Nick Green	25	5	0	12	0	2	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	0
2005	AL	TB	3B	Nick Green	26	13	11	104	4	21	3	2	23	30	.767	0	0	-2
2006	AL	NYY	3B	Nick Green	27	17	8	80	7	18	2	4	19	27	.704	-2	-1	-25
2006	AL	TB	SS	Nick Green	27	10	7	67	10	21	0	6	22	28	.786	-1	-1	-17
2006	AL	NYY	SS	Nick Green	27	10	3	35	10	11	2	4	11	15	.733	-1	-1	-42
2007	AL	Sea	SS	Nick Green	29	3	0	6	0	2	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	65
Projection	AL	NYY	1B			1	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	2B			38	32	853	63	85	2	19	79	99	.799	-2	-2	-3
Projection	AL	NYY	3B			13	7	213	4	15	2	2	16	22	.739	-1	0	-3
Projection	AL	NYY	SS			6	3	86	5	9	0	2	9	12	.795	0	0	-8

Green is probably the best choice if the Yankees decide they want a second backup middle infielder, although if they carry 12 pitchers that may make it tough to squeeze him on.

Chris Woodward
Take Nick Green and make him worse and make him a few years older and you have Chris Woodward.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	242	222	23	52	11	1	3	22	1	1	19	51	1	.234	.298	.333	-9	-3
marcel	301	268	32	64	13	1	5	29	2	1	24	61	2	.239	.299	.351	-10	-2
pecota	84	75	8	18	4	0	1	8	1	0	7	17	1	.240	.310	.333	-3	0
zips	179	165	18	37	8	1	2	16	1	0	13	40	1	.224	.285	.321	-8	-3
cairo	238	212	23	49	10	1	3	22	1	0	18	48	1	.231	.286	.330	-10	-4
average	209	188	21	44	9	1	3	19	1	0	16	43	1	.234	.295	.334	-8	-2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	238	212	28	56	13	2	5	27	2	0	22	41	2	.264	.337	.412	0	6
65%	238	212	25	53	12	2	4	24	2	0	20	45	2	.248	.311	.371	-5	1
Baseline	238	212	23	49	10	1	3	22	1	0	18	48	1	.231	.286	.330	-10	-4
35%	238	212	21	46	8	1	2	20	1	0	16	51	1	.215	.260	.289	-14	-8
20%	238	212	18	42	7	0	1	17	0	0	14	55	0	.198	.234	.248	-19	-13

Woodward has seen some spot duty in the OF which could theoretically give him an edge on Green.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2002	AL	Tor	1B	Chris Woodward	26	3	1	10	9	0	0	1	2	2	1.000	0	0	37
2005	NL	NYM	1B	Chris Woodward	29	34	21	199	206	10	2	16	30	33	.909	1	1	7
2006	NL	NYM	1B	Chris Woodward	30	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2007	NL	Atl	1B	Chris Woodward	31	6	4	35	28	1	1	3	7	8	.875	0	0	6
2002	AL	Tor	2B	Chris Woodward	26	6	3	26	8	14	2	4	11	13	.846	0	0	6
2005	NL	NYM	2B	Chris Woodward	29	5	3	30	4	7	2	1	7	10	.700	-1	-1	-41
2006	NL	NYM	2B	Chris Woodward	30	39	33	292	72	93	4	20	76	91	.835	2	1	7
2007	NL	Atl	2B	Chris Woodward	31	11	6	54	12	16	0	4	15	23	.652	-4	-3	-70
2002	AL	Tor	3B	Chris Woodward	26	2	1	9	2	3	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	1	121
2005	NL	NYM	3B	Chris Woodward	29	6	2	25	1	11	0	0	12	13	.923	2	1	79
2006	NL	NYM	3B	Chris Woodward	30	11	6	66	3	17	0	2	16	16	1.000	3	3	60
2007	NL	Atl	3B	Chris Woodward	31	24	6	100	5	16	3	2	13	16	.813	1	1	7
2002	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	26	79	77	678	134	231	13	64	208	240	.867	4	3	7
2003	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	27	103	98	871	161	300	17	69	279	335	.833	-3	-3	-4
2004	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	28	64	60	515	87	171	5	42	163	195	.836	-1	0	-1
2005	NL	NYM	SS	Chris Woodward	29	7	3	33	5	7	1	1	6	7	.857	0	0	3
2006	NL	NYM	SS	Chris Woodward	30	13	11	97	13	33	1	10	29	35	.829	0	0	-2
2007	NL	Atl	SS	Chris Woodward	31	13	5	67	7	20	2	5	17	20	.850	0	0	7
Projection	AL	NYY	1B			11	7	192	63	3	1	5	10	11	.901	0	0	2
Projection	AL	NYY	2B			18	14	362	29	38	2	8	32	40	.788	-1	-1	-4
Projection	AL	NYY	3B			14	5	196	3	14	1	1	13	15	.905	2	2	12
Projection	AL	NYY	SS			31	26	712	40	79	4	20	73	87	.839	0	0	0

Woodward brings a slightly better glove than Green it would appear, but a worse bat. He's probably not a good bet to make the team although I have a hunch he could sneak his way on with a hot spring.

Brett Gardner
Gardner's a long shot to start the season in the Bronx. He's shown pretty good OBP skills in the minors and he's supposed to be top of the scouting scale fast, but he has no power at all which is not a good sign for his major league future.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	469	427	55	108	18	4	2	43	35	9	40	91	2	.253	.320	.328	-13	-1
marcel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0
pecota	483	428	58	102	17	4	3	31	25	7	44	100	3	.238	.308	.318	-18	-5
zips	468	417	73	112	15	4	1	27	28	9	49	87	2	.269	.348	.331	-10	2
cairo	325	292	46	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.326	.342	-9	-1
average	349	313	43	79	12	3	2	25	19	5	33	68	2	.253	.326	.330	-10	-1
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	325	292	53	83	14	5	5	28	12	1	35	53	3	.283	.374	.413	3	11
65%	325	292	50	78	13	4	4	25	11	2	33	57	3	.268	.350	.378	-3	5
Baseline	325	292	46	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.326	.342	-9	-1
35%	325	292	43	70	9	2	2	21	8	4	27	65	1	.239	.302	.307	-16	-7
20%	325	292	39	65	8	1	1	18	6	5	25	69	1	.224	.278	.272	-22	-13

Gardner's defense is apparently not as good as it should be with his speed because of some questionable reads, but I think he's still likely to be a plus defender.

Conclusion
We can probably assume the Yankees start the season with this lineup:

LF - Damon
SS - Jeter
RF - Abreu
3B - Rodriguez
1B - Giambi
C - Posada
DH - Matsui
2B - Cano
CF - Cabrera

We can probably also safely assume that they'll start the season with a 12 man pitching staff, which leaves four roster spots for the bench. Betemit and Molina are locks. I think Ensberg is pretty close to a lock as well, which leaves one spot for Jason Lane or Shelley Duncan or Nick Green or Chris Woodward. Duncan gives them the better bat, although Green and Woodward give them more infield flexibility. Lane is probably the best OF backup defensively since he can play CF, but he seems like the odd man out. If it was me I'd go with Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. Any situation that would require Green or Duncan could be handled without them. If you lose Alex Rodriguez, Ensberg or Betemit can play third. If you lose one of Jeter or Cano, Betemit can cover them. If you lose both Jeter and Cano, Betemit slides to second, Rodriguez to short, and Ensberg to third. If it's a long-term issue the Yankees would have Alberto Gonzalez available to backup around the IF.

The Yankees have similar OF flexibility with Damon as the backup CF, Matsui as the backup corner OF and emergency CF, and Duncan as a fifth OF who can cover the corners in a pinch.

I suppose a pinch runner for Giambi or Posada would be nice, but is that worth a roster spot? If it is I could see Gardner or Justin Christian sneaking on.

I'll take a look at what the Yankee position players add up to as far as runs and wins in my next entry and then it's on to the pitching.

So, like I said, my bench would be Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. There's a possibility Hideki Matsui may start the year on the DL which would open up another spot, but let's assume that's not the case for now. If you could take four players for the Yankee bench, who would they be?