Thursday, February 21, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Robinson Cano
Today we look at Robinson Cano.For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
2007
Cano took a circuitious route to get there, but he ended up hitting almost exacly as he was projected to hit in 2007.
| 2007 | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| Avg Projection | 564 | 531 | 74 | 167 | 37 | 3 | 16 | 81 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 66 | 3 | .314 | .347 | .487 | 94 |
| Actual | 669 | 617 | 93 | 189 | 41 | 7 | 19 | 97 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 85 | 8 | .306 | .353 | .488 | 93 |
| % Diff | 19% | 16% | 6% | -4% | -8% | 123% | -2% | 1% | -10% | 94% | 26% | 9% | 134% | -2% | 2% | 0% | -1% |
Cano traded some singles for walks and hit for a little more power than projected, but his net value was around the same overall.
So what's the circuitous route he took? From April 2 to May 20, Cano hit just .241/.278/.342. Not coincidentally, the Yankees wer 17-23 through that point. He had walked 7 times in 169 plate appearances, which was a rate of a 4.1%. He was projected to walk at a rate of 4.6%. He had also struck out 32 times in those 169 plate appearances, a rate of 18.9%. His projected K rate coming into the season was 11.7%.
We can't ignore that part of the season, but we can take heart in what happened after. From May 21 on, Cano hit .329/.379/.538. He walked 32 times (4 intentional) over 500 plate appearances, an unintentional walk rate of 5.6%. He also cut his strikeout rate down to 10.6%. Cano's walk rate did improve, but it's still below average. While I'd love to see him walk 80 times a year, it's just not his game and it probably never will be. Like I always say when it comes to Cano, you don't have to walk all the time to be a good player. Not if you do enough other stuff well, although better discipline at the plate should help him make better use of his swings. I also think in some ways it's good to have a free swinger in a lineup full of take and rake guys, because of matchups, but that's just an off-the-wall theory of mine which I haven't tried to do any analysis on.
Offense
So how does Cano project for 2008?
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 596 | 560 | 79 | 172 | 38 | 4 | 19 | 86 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 71 | 4 | .307 | .349 | .491 | 13 | 28 |
| marcel | 585 | 543 | 80 | 171 | 39 | 4 | 16 | 82 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 74 | 5 | .315 | .354 | .490 | 13 | 28 |
| pecota | 613 | 569 | 78 | 170 | 36 | 3 | 15 | 82 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 77 | 5 | .299 | .339 | .455 | 5 | 20 |
| zips | 622 | 584 | 87 | 180 | 41 | 5 | 18 | 98 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 73 | 4 | .308 | .350 | .488 | 12 | 28 |
| cairo | 590 | 549 | 0 | 171 | 38 | 4 | 17 | 81 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 73 | 5 | .311 | .348 | .486 | 11 | 26 |
| average | 601 | 561 | 81 | 173 | 38 | 4 | 17 | 86 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 74 | 5 | .308 | .348 | .482 | 11 | 26 |
That's a remarkably consistent projection with the exception of PECOTA. CAIRO actually comes in as pessimistic here, although not egregiously so. Here's the range of CAIRO projections for Cano.
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 590 | 549 | 0 | 184 | 44 | 6 | 21 | 90 | 5 | 1 | 35 | 64 | 7 | .335 | .383 | .551 | 29 | 44 |
| 65% | 590 | 549 | 0 | 177 | 41 | 5 | 19 | 86 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 68 | 6 | .323 | .365 | .519 | 20 | 35 |
| Baseline | 590 | 549 | 0 | 171 | 38 | 4 | 17 | 81 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 73 | 5 | .311 | .348 | .486 | 11 | 26 |
| 35% | 590 | 549 | 0 | 164 | 35 | 3 | 15 | 77 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 77 | 4 | .299 | .330 | .454 | 2 | 17 |
| 20% | 590 | 549 | 0 | 158 | 32 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 81 | 3 | .287 | .313 | .422 | -7 | 8 |
I have no scientific basis for it, but dammit it's spring training so I'm going to go out on a limb. I think Cano will hit that 65% projection at the very least.
Defense
Cano did what was expected on offense, but defense was where he really took a big step forward in 2007. He had graded as roughly average in 2005 and 2006 by zone rating, but in 2007 he was the third best defensive second baseman in the league.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2005 | 2B | 131 | 1143 | 259 | 391 | 17 | 77 | 360 | 441 | .816 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| 2006 | 2B | 118 | 1009 | 230 | 333 | 9 | 73 | 310 | 375 | .827 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | 2B | 159 | 1409 | 320 | 497 | 13 | 136 | 438 | 518 | .846 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Projection | 138 | 1209 | 275 | 416 | 13 | 100 | 376 | 451 | .833 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
We should project Cano to regress back towards average a little based on 2005-6 as well as the typical regression to the mean, but he should still be solidly average to slightly above.
Baserunning
Despite being a middle infielder, Cano's not a fast runner, or a particularly good or bad baserunner. Lee Panas sent me the full baserunning numbers for the Yankees. Since the questions have been coming up, here are the components that he used to assess baserunning:
1) Bases gained above average on hits (first to third, first to home on a 2B, etc.,)
2) Bases gained above average on grounders
3) Bases gained above average on fly outs
4) Bases gained above average on other events (wild pitches, passed balls)
I multiply the total BGAA by .28 to get a run value. .28 is the average linear weights value of an extra base. For 2007 we'd want to use the actual base/out state of the game but for projecting the average value is what we should use.
So for Cano, he was:
BGAA Hits: 4.6
BGAA Ground: 6.0
BGAA Air: -5.3
BGAA Other: -8.7
BGAA Total: -3.4
That -8.7 BGAA Other includes Cano's 4 SB and 5 CS, which I am already including in his linear weights, so I'll exclude those, which makes Cano actually 5.3 BGAA, so he gets a +1 for baserunning. Color me surprised.
Value
Cano is one of the top second basemen in the league and the Yankees rewarded him with a four year deal that buys out his arbitration years and two team options which allow them to buy out his first two years of free agency. We need to remember that he can't be a free agent for a few years, so looking at his 'free agent' value is a little misleading.
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 26 | 2.6 |
| Defense | 5 | 0.5 |
| Baserunning | 1 | 0.1 |
| Overall Value | 32 | 3.2 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 13.9 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 3.0 | |
| Difference | 10.9 |
Cano's projected to be worth about 3.2 wins above a replacement 2B, which makes his free agent value $13.9 million. The Yankees will be paying him $3 million. Hooray for efficiency!
Conclusion
If you don't like Cano, you hate freedom. He can be maddeningly streaky at times, but when he's on one of his good streaks he's just so much fun to watch. I am expecting big things from Cano this year, better than his projections. I think he is going to have a power spike, maybe 25-30 HRs. I am hopeful he will keep his defensive level up to where he was in 2007 which adds another half win to his value. If he does both of those things, then he's probably the second-best second baseman in baseball.
Page 1 of 1 pages: