Thursday, March 13, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Phil Hughes
After dominating the minors for two full seasons, Phil Hughes finally made his debut in Yankee pinstripes in 2007. After a middling first start, Hughes flashed some of the dominance that he had in the minors, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers. With one out and facing Mark Teixeira, Hughes tore his hamstring. While re-habbing he rolled his ankle which delayed his return, but he did eventually make it back.2007
Hughes wasn't really expected to pitch much in the majors in 2007, but injuries and ineffectiveness led to him being called up sooner than expected. Hughes's minor league numbers were pretty eye-popping, but there was some question if he was ready. Here's how Hughes's MLEs looked for 2005 and 2006. MLEs are major league equivalencies, which are used to translate minor league performance to comparable major league performance.
| Year | Name | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2005 | Philip Hughes | 19 | CSC | 12 | 12 | 64.0 | 60 | 26 | 6 | 13 | 56 | 3.66 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 7.9 |
| 2005 | Philip Hughes | 19 | Tam | 5 | 4 | 16.0 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 2.81 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 12.9 |
| 2006 | Philip Hughes | 20 | Tam | 5 | 5 | 28.0 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 2.57 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 9.3 |
| 2006 | Philip Hughes | 20 | Tre | 21 | 21 | 107.0 | 96 | 48 | 14 | 36 | 99 | 4.04 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 8.3 |
| 2007 | Philip Hughes | 21 | Tam | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 36.0 |
| 2007 | Philip Hughes | 21 | Tre | 2 | 2 | 7.0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3.86 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 15.4 |
| 2007 | Philip Hughes | 21 | SWB | 5 | 5 | 27.0 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 2.67 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 10.3 |
| Total | 51 | 50 | 250 | 223 | 98 | 22 | 70 | 254 | 3.53 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 9.1 |
Amazing numbers considering Hughes's age, and the three systems that projected him for 2007 expected big things.
| Hughes | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 3.99 | 27 | 131 | 128 | 63 | 58 | 13 | 46 | 104 | 8 | 12 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 7.2 |
| Actual | 4.46 | 13 | 73 | 64 | 39 | 36 | 8 | 29 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 7.2 |
| Difference | 89% | 48% | 56% | 4% | 8% | 111% | 92% | 88% | 100% |
On its surface a 3.99 ERA may not seem like a big deal, but for a 21 year old who hadn't even pitched in AAA yet, that's a very optimistic projection. Hughes came back from his injury after missing almost three months and scuffled over his next six starts.
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | TBF | Stk% |
| 6 | 1 | 2 | 32.3 | 32 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 15 | 29 | 143 | 65.1% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 48.0% | 32.7% | 19.4% | 6.40 | 6.96 | 5.21 | 4.88 | 0.13 | 4.2 | 8.1 | -7.3 | .265 |
Hughes's problem during this stretch were a bad walk rate and a high HR rate. He had a very good BABIP or his performance may have been even worse.
Down the stretch Hughes was more effective.
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | TBF | Stk% |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | 29.7 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 122 | 63.5% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 46.7% | 35.6% | 17.8% | 2.73 | 3.03 | 3.87 | 5.02 | 0.05 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | .256 |
What's interesting here is that Hughes's K rate plummetted from 8.1 per 9 to 5.5 per 9. His ERA was probably lower than you'd expect given his peripherals but his FIP was solid, although his HR/FB rate may have been unsustainably low. Hughes's velocity seemed to be down from the scouting reports in the minors, and the consensus is that he didn't have either full strength or trust in his leg for the remainder of the season.
We have Pitch F/X data for 9 of Hughes's 13 starts. Here's a simple chart showing his average fastball velocity by game.
| Date | FB Velocity |
| 1-May | 92.3 |
| 10-Aug | 91.8 |
| 20-Aug | 91.3 |
| 26-Aug | 90.2 |
| 31-Aug | 91.1 |
| 5-Sep | 91.0 |
| 11-Sep | 93.4 |
| 17-Sep | 90.1 |
| 22-Sep | 91.5 |
If a healthy Hughes can add a couple of MPH to that fastball, he's really going to be something.
Hughes's 2007 ended on an up note with a very good outing against Cleveland in the ALDS, where he pitched 3.2 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and fanning 4.
2008
Despite constant rumors that he was on the verge of being dealt to Minnesota as part of a package for Johan Santana, Hughes remains a Yankee and I'm pretty happy about that. Here's what the projections say we should expect from Hughes in 2008.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 22 | 22 | 104 | 103 | 53 | 49 | 12 | 41 | 90 | 4.24 | 4.15 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 11 |
| marcel | 21 | 21 | 96 | 90 | 50 | 46 | 10 | 35 | 77 | 4.31 | 4.04 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| pecota | 27 | 27 | 152 | 146 | 82 | 75 | 16 | 65 | 129 | 4.42 | 4.17 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 16 |
| zips | 26 | 26 | 141 | 136 | 63 | 58 | 13 | 40 | 106 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 21 |
| cairo | 28 | 28 | 156 | 142 | 70 | 66 | 14 | 50 | 122 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 11 | 27 | 10 | 23 |
| average | 25 | 25 | 130 | 123 | 64 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 105 | 4.07 | 3.96 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 17 |
Most of the systems expect a better Hughes in 2008, although the degree of better-ness varies. ZiPS is the most optimistic with CAIRO second, although Dan and my peripherals line up pretty closely. The average performance would make Hughes worth around 19 runs better than a replacement pitcher, although the innings are limited to 130. Boost that to 170 or so and he'd be worth about 25 runs above a replacement level pitcher. I'm not sure what kind of innings limit the Yankees will have on Hughes, but he did pitch around 150 in 2006 so getting to 170 in 2008 may be realistic.
Here are the percentile ranges of Hughes's CAIRO projection:
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 28 | 28 | 156 | 130 | 62 | 58 | 10 | 43 | 133 | 3.34 | 3.17 | 20 | 35 | 20 | 34 |
| 65% | 28 | 28 | 156 | 136 | 66 | 62 | 12 | 46 | 128 | 3.57 | 3.47 | 16 | 31 | 15 | 29 |
| Baseline | 28 | 28 | 156 | 142 | 70 | 66 | 14 | 50 | 122 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 11 | 27 | 10 | 23 |
| 35% | 28 | 28 | 156 | 148 | 74 | 70 | 16 | 54 | 116 | 4.04 | 4.06 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 18 |
| 20% | 28 | 28 | 156 | 154 | 78 | 74 | 18 | 57 | 111 | 4.28 | 4.35 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13 |
CAIRO loves it some Phil Hughes apparently. Even his 20% projection is pretty good. I think Hughes's range of projections is probably spread more than this. Young pitchers have tended to struggle while getting acclimated to the majors. I still think Hughes could hit that 80% projection though.
Value
Second year player = bargain. If we use the average Hughes projections for runs saved above replacement pro-rated to 170 innings, he'd be worth 25 runs above replacement level.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.5 | $11,250,000 | $400,000 | $10,850,000 |
For comparison's sake, here's what Johan Santana's value looks like:
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 5.7 | $25,650,000 | $19,000,000 | $6,650,000 |
I realize the Yankees first priority is to win and not to maximize their dollars, but in a straight comparison Hughes projects to be the better value in 2008. Of course there is also a greater risk of uncertainty with Hughes.
Conclusion
I was adamently opposed to any form of the Johan Santana trade that would have involved trading Hughes. Even if the Yankees are a win or two worse in 2008 because they didn't pull the trigger, they'll be more fun to watch for me.
I have a hunch that Hughes is going to be the best starter on the Yankees this year. Better than Joba, better than Pettitte, and better than Wang.
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