Thursday, February 28, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Melky Cabrera
After filling in for an injured Hideki Matsui for a large part of 2006, Melky Cabrera seized the starting CF job about a month into 2007. Melky had a streaky season, but held his own for the most part and was an important part of the Yankees' surge to the playoffs. With all the Johan Santana nonsense this offseason it seemed like Melky was a goner, but he survived.2007
Projecting young players is especially difficult since so much of their projection is based on translating their minor league stats. Melky actually underperformed his projections pretty significantly in 2007.
| 2007 | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| Avg Projection | 553 | 498 | 74 | 143 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 65 | 11 | 4 | 49 | 66 | 3 | .288 | .353 | .426 | 84 |
| Actual | 612 | 545 | 66 | 149 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 13 | 5 | 43 | 68 | 5 | .273 | .327 | .391 | 71 |
| % Diff | 11% | 9% | -19% | -6% | -19% | 154% | -41% | 2% | 12% | 11% | -20% | -6% | 63% | -5% | -7% | -8% | -16% |
All percent differences are based on rates except for PA and AB. Melky was worse in just about every category. He hit for a lower than expected average, his walk rate was 20% worse than expected, he struck out more frequently and his overall offense was 16% worse than projected.
As I mentioned earlier, Melky had a streaky season. So let's have some fun with selective end points.
From April 2 through May 1, here's how Melky was hitting:
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 84 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .190 | .238 | .203 | .441 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 70 | 19 | 40 | 11 | 27.1% | 57.1% | 15.7% | -8 | -61 | 4.8% | 10.7% | .214 | .277 | 0.0% | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Some of these numbers may be foreign to you so here's what they are.
IFH: Infield hits
BIP: Balls in play
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
LD: Line drives
FB%: FB/BIP
GB%: GB/BIP
LD%: LD/BIP
BRAA: Batting runs above average
p650: BRAA per 650 PA
BB/PA: Walks/PA
K/PA: Strikeouts/PA
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
xBABIP: Expected BABIP (LD% + .12)
HR/FB: HRs per fly ball
So what does this tell us? Melky wasn't hitting well, although he was having some bad luck as well as his expected BABIP was .063 lower than what it should have been. If we added that back into his .190/.238/.203 line as singles he would have been hittubg .253/.301/.265, which still isn't all that good.
Melky went on a hot streak over his next 341 plate appearances to get his OPS over the magical .800 mark (.803).
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 341 | 312 | 102 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 34 | 50 | 45 | 4 | 12 | .327 | .384 | .510 | .894 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 274 | 77 | 136 | 61 | 28.1% | 49.6% | 22.3% | 13 | 24 | 7.3% | 10.0% | .348 | .343 | 10.4% | 9 | 2 | 7 |
So what changed? He hit line drives about 42% more of the time, he walked about 50% more of the time, and he struck out about 7% less frequently. His BABIP wasn't much higher than his expected BABIP, so he was really doing what you'd expect if you look at his batted ball stats. That stretch of offense would be worth 24 BRAA over an average CF over a full season, or 44 BRAR.
Unfortunately, Melky couldn't sustain that stretch, and slumped ovder his last 173 plate appearances.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 173 | 158 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 26 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 5 | .203 | .272 | .241 | .512 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 132 | 42 | 69 | 21 | 31.8% | 52.3% | 15.9% | -13 | -49 | 8.7% | 15.0% | .242 | .279 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 | 5 |
It could have been fatigue, or it could have been a regression towards his mean. The fact that his ground ball percentage went up some is an indicator that he was swinging early, not late, which means it may not have been fatigue, although the difference isn't statistically significant. An early swing is more likely to result in a ground ball and a late swing is more likely to result in a fly ball
On the season, Melky hit for a .301 BABIP but given his line drive percentage of 19.7% he should have hit for a .317 BABIP. A .317 BABIP would have given Melky a line of .289/.348/.407, which is a little more in line with what he was projected to do.
Offense
So we've looked at 2007, how about 2008?
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 588 | 536 | 72 | 149 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 15 | 6 | 49 | 74 | 3 | .278 | .342 | .397 | -6 | 10 |
| marcel | 558 | 494 | 70 | 140 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 49 | 66 | 4 | .283 | .346 | .409 | -3 | 11 |
| pecota | 573 | 515 | 75 | 146 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 61 | 14 | 5 | 44 | 70 | 4 | .283 | .339 | .404 | -5 | 10 |
| zips | 642 | 580 | 83 | 166 | 29 | 6 | 12 | 89 | 13 | 4 | 59 | 65 | 3 | .286 | .355 | .419 | 0 | 17 |
| cairo | 433 | 385 | 58 | 106 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 37 | 52 | 3 | .276 | .337 | .395 | -6 | 6 |
| average | 559 | 502 | 71 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 47 | 66 | 3 | .281 | .344 | .405 | -4 | 10 |
Melky did not take the step forward expected in 2007, so he projects worse in 2008. It's important to remember that he's still very young which means he has a bigger chance to make a quantum leap forward. His great stretch in the middle of 2007 shows that he has the talent to make that leap, although whether he'll realize it is uncertain. CAIRO is the most pessimistic system. Based on my comparisons with the other players CAIRO seems to like the older guys more and the younger guys less, which is probably something I need to look at next year.
Melky does have a pretty wide range of potential projections in CAIRO.
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 433 | 385 | 66 | 117 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 43 | 44 | 5 | .303 | .379 | .462 | 9 | 21 |
| 65% | 433 | 385 | 62 | 112 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 40 | 48 | 4 | .290 | .358 | .429 | 2 | 13 |
| Baseline | 433 | 385 | 58 | 106 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 37 | 52 | 3 | .276 | .337 | .395 | -6 | 6 |
| 35% | 433 | 385 | 54 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 55 | 2 | .263 | .316 | .361 | -13 | -2 |
| 20% | 433 | 385 | 50 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 59 | 1 | .250 | .295 | .327 | -20 | -9 |
If I were to bet on anyone to hit their 80% projection, it'd be a player who's hit major league pitching passably well at ages 21 and 22. I don't know if Melky can get to that 80% projection, but the 65% projection seems reasonable enough, and would make him an above average offensive CF. Playing time is skewed in CAIRO because of 2006 but if we boost him to 650 plate appearances he'd be 31 BRAR at his 80% projection, 20 BRAR at his 65% projection, and 9 BRAR at his baseline projection.
For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
Defense
Melky's defense is one area where different defensive metrics disagree. This is one of the problems with getting defensive metrics more widely accepted. When two systems purported to measure the same thing show a 40 run difference, that's pretty tough to justify.
I still like zone rating, so I'm using it for these previews, but keep in mind that there are other defensive metrics out there and they may tell different stories.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2005 | CF | 6 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | .636 | -3 | -2 | -72 |
| 2006 | CF | 4 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | .800 | -1 | -1 | -37 |
| 2007 | CF | 131 | 1073 | 346 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 343 | 380 | .903 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Projection | CF | 143 | 1161 | 372 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 368 | 410 | .898 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Zone rating says Melky was solidly above average last year, and I'd project him to be above average again in 2008, with a couple of dings for 2005 and 2006 but with some improvement since he's still young enough to be getting better defensively.
Zone rating just looks at fly balls caught, but another aspect of Melky's game that is very important to his value is one of the best outfield arms in the majors. According to this article, Melky's arm was worth about four runs above average in CF. That's right near the top. I'll assume that we can carry that into 2008 as well, so Melky's total defensive value projects to be around +9 runs.
Baserunning
Melky's not particularly fast, although he's not slow. Without looking at the numbers I think he's what I'd call a heady baserunner. According to Lee Panas's bases gained above average, Melky's about average. He had 4.9 BGAA on hits, 2.6 BGAA on grounders, -6.9 BGAA on fly balls, and -1.4 BGAA on other events (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,). I don't recall Melky running particularly poorly on fly balls, although I'll trust the numbers over my memory. So Melky was rated overall at -.8 BGAA, which is like -.2 runs. I'll consider Melky an average baserunner here.
Value
Melky's still years away from free agency, so his free agent value is going to be way higher than his salary.
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 10 | 1.0 |
| Defense | 9 | 0.9 |
| Baserunning | 0 | 0.0 |
| Overall Value | 19 | 1.9 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 8.2 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 0.4 | |
| Difference | 7.7 |
Melky should be in the neighborhood of two wins above a replacement level CF, which is right around average at a cost of 430K. What a bargain! That is a bargain for me.(extra credit for anyone that gets that reference)
Conclusion
More than any position player on the Yankees, Melky has upside. While I think Robinson Cano is more talented, two years is a big difference. If you look at some of the work on aging patterns by TangoTiger, the leap from age 22 to age 23 is a key one.
I enjoy watching Melky play, even with his limitations. Even if he doesn't get any better than he is right now, he's serviceable in CF until someone else comes along, be it Austin Jackson or a free agent. But I think he'll get better and I think the Yankees will be glad they didn't trade him.
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