Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera's contract was up at the end of 2007 and for a brief time it looked like he may test free agency. Mo eventually got a huge contract to stay through 2010, which could very possibly be his last deal. The Yankees may have overpaid in a strict dollar sense, but Rivera is more than his stat line. He's one of the main faces of the late 90s Yankee dynasty and a mentor in the bullpen, and he's still a pretty fair reliever.2007
| Mariano Rivera | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 2.76 | 63 | 71 | 63 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 16 | 58 | 15 | 43 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 7.3 |
| Actual | 3.15 | 67 | 71 | 68 | 25 | 25 | 4 | 12 | 74 | 13 | 38 | 8.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 9.3 |
| Difference | 88% | 106% | 100% | 88% | 82% | 94% | 123% | 136% | 127% |
Mo is what I like to call an outlier in the projection sense. He's been so consistently good that his projections are usually way off. 2007 broke that trend. Mo's ERA of 3.15 was equivalent to an ERA+ of 142, which is the worst relief ERA+ of his career. What's interesting is that Rivera had better peripherals than projected in every area except hits allowed and and runs allowed. He gave up fewer HRs than projected, walked fewer people and struck out more people. Still, Mo started the year of shakily. Here's his line through the first eight games:
| G | W | L | SV | BS | IP | TBF | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.7 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| BIP | BABIP | FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA |
| 21 | .429 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 38.1% | 12.15 | 12.15 | 4.10 | 3.65 | 0.14 | 4.1 | 10.8 | -5.4 |
The walk rate was high, but more telling is that 38% line drive percentage. They were hitting Mo, and they were hitting him hard. It may have been partly a function of the Yankees stinking up the early part of the season which meant he wasn't getting enough work, but there were times where his stuff just wasn't quite as good. His cutter wasn't moving as much and his velocity was down from time to time. That will likely start to happen more and more, Rivera's not as young as he used to be.
He may be aging, but Mo finished the year off in fine fashion.
| G | W | L | SV | BS | IP | TBF | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB |
| 59 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 2 | 64.7 | 263 | 58 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 66 | 9 |
| BIP | BABIP | FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA |
| 179 | .307 | 27.9% | 55.9% | 16.2% | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.18 | 2.68 | 0.06 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 19.4 |
That looks like typical Rivera.
2008
Mo's peripherals are a good indicator that he's still got something left in the tank. He projects pretty well for next year.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 66 | 0 | 72 | 69 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 3.25 | 3.03 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| marcel | 49 | 28 | 68 | 65 | 27 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 58 | 3.31 | 3.20 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 14 |
| pecota | 53 | 0 | 61 | 54 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 51 | 2.69 | 3.05 | 12 | 18 | 9 | 14 |
| zips | 67 | 0 | 75 | 65 | 22 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 66 | 2.40 | 2.52 | 17 | 25 | 15 | 22 |
| cairo | 67 | 0 | 78 | 69 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 2.77 | 2.78 | 15 | 22 | 14 | 20 |
| average | 60 | 6 | 71 | 64 | 25 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 61 | 2.88 | 2.90 | 13 | 20 | 11 | 17 |
The consensus is a bit of a bounceback, which I'd agree with. Here's Rivera's range of CAIRO projections:
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 67 | 0 | 78 | 61 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 73 | 2.20 | 2.09 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 26 |
| 65% | 67 | 0 | 78 | 65 | 23 | 22 | 3 | 13 | 69 | 2.49 | 2.43 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 23 |
| Baseline | 67 | 0 | 78 | 69 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 2.77 | 2.78 | 15 | 22 | 14 | 20 |
| 35% | 67 | 0 | 78 | 73 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 17 | 61 | 3.05 | 3.12 | 12 | 20 | 11 | 17 |
| 20% | 67 | 0 | 78 | 77 | 31 | 29 | 6 | 19 | 57 | 3.33 | 3.47 | 10 | 18 | 8 | 14 |
None of those would surprise me this year, although I think the 65% is reasonable.
If Rivera pitches 47 innings this season he reaches 1000 innings for his career. Why is that important? Because it would put him on Baseball Reference's ERA+ career leaderboard. If he gets there while piching as well as projected, he'll be the all-time leader in ERA+, which makes him the single best run preventer relative to his era and ballpark ever. Granted, relieving is easier than starting, but no one has done it any better on a pure batter by batter basis for as long as Rivera has.
Value
A run saved by Rivera is more valuable than a run saved by any other pitcher on the Yankees because of leverage. If we multiply his baseline RSAR by a leverage index of 1.5, we get a RSAR of 30.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 3.0 | $13,500,000 | $15,000,000 | -$1,500,000 |
So Mo's contract overpays him by about $1.5 million for 2008. Consider that a bonus for 12 years of dominance.
Conclusion
Rivera's my favorite Yankee of all time, and I was very happy that he was brought back, even if it was for too much and too long. He's realistically no longer the best closer in the game, but he's still damn good. I will really miss the strains of 'Enter Sandman' when Rivera finally hangs it up.
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