Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins
With the season speedily approaching it's time to zip through the rest of the bullpen members. I'll look at Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins today and the rest of the candidates tomorrow. Friday I'll wrap up the pitching as a whole and look at my overall team projection.Farnsworth has always had a great fastball as far as velocity, but his command of it is spotty which makes him a middling reliever. The Yankees signed him after his career year in 2005 on the hopes he'd harnessed his physical talent but so far instead they've gotten the Farns that Cubs fans warned us about.
2007
| Kyle Farnsworth | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.04 | 68 | 65 | 60 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 12 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 9.3 |
| Actual | 4.80 | 64 | 60 | 60 | 35 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 48 | -3 | -9 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 7.2 |
| Difference | 84% | 95% | 92% | -72% | -71% | 92% | 83% | 91% | 78% |
Farnsworth did worse than expected in every single category. He gave up more hits, walks, HRs and runs while striking out fewer batters than projected. Other than that he was solid.
For whatever reason Farnsworth didn't seem to be throwing as hard as consistently as he usually does last year, especially early in the season. For the games we have Pitch F/X data for, Farnsworth averaged 95 mph with his fastball which may be where he normally sits. Whether it was velocity or Kyle being Kyle, he was a disappointment last season.
2008
For 2008, we probably should expect a slight bounceback from Farnsworth if you look at his projections.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 67 | 0 | 63 | 62 | 32 | 30 | 7 | 27 | 55 | 4.29 | 4.18 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| marcel | 49 | 27 | 62 | 60 | 32 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 55 | 4.35 | 4.15 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| pecota | 47 | 0 | 53 | 48 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 51 | 3.71 | 3.91 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| zips | 69 | 0 | 65 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 9 | 27 | 64 | 4.02 | 4.28 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 6 |
| cairo | 63 | 0 | 64 | 62 | 34 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 56 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| average | 59 | 5 | 61 | 58 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 56 | 4.19 | 4.22 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
And here's what CAIRO sees for the Farns's range of projections.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 3.70 | 3.46 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 65% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 58 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 24 | 60 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 8 |
| Baseline | 63 | 0 | 64 | 62 | 34 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 56 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 35% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 66 | 37 | 35 | 11 | 30 | 52 | 4.90 | 5.09 | -3 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 20% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 70 | 40 | 38 | 12 | 32 | 49 | 5.30 | 5.63 | -6 | 0 | -9 | -4 |
I'd be lying if I said had any clue how Farnsworth will do. I don't even have a gut feeling, but none of the above lines would surprise me.
Value
Farnsworth's average projection is that he will save 8 runs above a replacement level reliever. We can probably give him a little extra credit for leverage, I'll use 1.4 on the assumption he'll pitch some important innings but not as many as Mo. That boosts him to about one win above replacement
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 1.0 | $4,500,000 | $5,500,000 | -$1,000,000 |
Farnsworth not worth his contract? Who'd a thunk it?
Moving on from the Professor, we have Hawkins. I won't look at his 2007 projections because I don't have them handy, but I will touch on his actual performance.
2007
Hawkins had a surprisingly effective season in 2007 for the Rockies after putting up a 4.48 ERA for Baltimore in 2006. Hawkins throws hard but he seems to have lost his ability to strike anyone out. This was credited to a change in his approach, as he's re-defined himself as a sinkerballer who pitches to contact. The contrast between his 2004/2005 and 2006/2006 seems to bear that out.
| Year | G | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA * | FIP | *ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB% |
| 2004 | 77 | 50 | 25 | 82 | 72 | 27 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 69 | 2.63 | 3.69 | 167 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.54 | 7.57 | 36% | 39% | 19% | 6% |
| 2005 | 66 | 21 | 6 | 56.3 | 58 | 27 | 24 | 7 | 24 | 43 | 3.83 | 4.57 | 113 | 1.46 | 1.12 | 3.84 | 6.87 | 42% | 36% | 16% | 5% |
| 2006 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 60.3 | 73 | 30 | 30 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 4.48 | 3.91 | 102 | 1.46 | 0.60 | 2.24 | 4.03 | 42% | 33% | 20% | 4% |
| 2007 | 62 | 10 | 0 | 55.3 | 52 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 3.42 | 4.43 | 140 | 1.23 | 0.98 | 2.60 | 4.72 | 63% | 21% | 16% | 1% |
| 04-05 | 143 | 71 | 31 | 138.3 | 130 | 54 | 48 | 17 | 38 | 112 | 3.12 | 4.05 | 145 | 1.21 | 1.11 | 2.47 | 7.29 | 39% | 38% | 18% | 5% |
| 06-07 | 122 | 22 | 0 | 115.6 | 125 | 51 | 51 | 10 | 31 | 56 | 3.97 | 4.16 | 120 | 1.35 | 0.78 | 2.41 | 4.36 | 51% | 28% | 18% | 2% |
Despite the big drop in his K rate in 2006, Hawkins's GB/FB rate was pretty consistent with 2004 and 2005, so 2007 is the real outlier here. While a pitcher changing his style is certainly not without precedent, Hawkins is a risky bet to replicate his 2007 success.
2008
Here's the projection gauntlet for Hawkins.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 61 | 0 | 54 | 61 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 33 | 4.50 | 4.18 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| marcel | 52 | 28 | 59 | 62 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 36 | 4.12 | 4.32 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| pecota | 44 | 0 | 48 | 56 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 4.76 | 4.50 | -2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| zips | 61 | 0 | 56 | 60 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 31 | 4.34 | 4.56 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| cairo | 58 | 0 | 58 | 63 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| average | 55 | 6 | 55 | 60 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 31 | 4.36 | 4.37 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
Not exactly awe-inspiring, but serviceable. The low K rate scares me, and tells me that Hawkins is probably a guy who's best off starting an inning unless there's a double play opportunity to be had.
And here's the range of CAIRO projections
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 55 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 3.38 | 3.36 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| 65% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 59 | 25 | 24 | 5 | 14 | 34 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 8 |
| Baseline | 58 | 0 | 58 | 63 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 35% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 67 | 31 | 30 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 4.59 | 4.78 | -1 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 20% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 71 | 33 | 32 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 5.00 | 5.25 | -3 | 2 | -6 | -1 |
Hawkins isn't really going to be a key part of the pen, although I suppose that could change if he earns it, so that baseline or even the 35% projection wouldn't be too bad.
Value
Hawkins on average looks to be about six runs better than a replacement level reliever. If we give him a leverage index credit of 1.3 then that's about eight runs better.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 0.8 | $3,600,000 | $3,750,000 | -$150,000 |
Seems like the Hawkins contract is right around where it should be.
Conclusion
I'd view anything that Farnsworth does this year as gravy. I don't have much in the way of expectations for him. I think Hawkins will be passable if unspectacular. Hopefully some of the young arms on the team develop into dependable relievers over the first half of the season which will lessen the need for over-reliance on either of them.
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