Monday, February 18, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jorge Posada
Spring Training has arrived so it's time to start my annual review of the key Yankees and how they project for the upcoming season. Jorge Posada, fresh off a new four year contract, kicks it off.Offense
In 2007, Posada had the best season of his career. How good was Posada? He was worth 43 batting runs above an average catcher using linear weights, and it was one of the top three offensive seasons for a Yankee catcher ever.
Now obviously we can't expect a repeat of that, so let's take a look at the various offensive projections for Posada heading into 2008.
I'll be looking at five different projection systems on offense during these rundowns.
CHONE by Sean Smith who blogs over at Anaheim Angels all the way. I have no love for the Angels, but Sean is one of the best analysts out there in my opinion.
Marcel by Tango Tiger who is also a great sabermetrician.
PECOTA by Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus, although I will only show the batting runs calculated as these are subscriber-only.
ZiPS by Dan Szymborski, who does a lot of good work.
CAIRO my own projection system which is new for 2008. I have no delusions of Cairo being any better than the ones listed above with the possible exception of Marcel, but it gives me more flexibility to do the work I like to do.
So, here's how Jorge projects using these various systems for 2008. In the chart below, BRAA is batting runs above an average catcher, BRAR is batting runs over a replacement-level catcher, over the projected number of plate appearances.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 560 | 483 | 80 | 134 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 70 | 97 | 7 | .277 | .377 | .458 | 24 | 36 |
| marcel | 549 | 476 | 72 | 137 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 63 | 97 | 6 | .288 | .375 | .468 | 26 | 37 |
| pecota | 525 | 450 | 74 | 129 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 66 | 91 | 4 | .287 | .380 | .479 | 26 | 37 |
| zips | 524 | 452 | 67 | 128 | 29 | 0 | 15 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 92 | 6 | .283 | .382 | .447 | 23 | 34 |
| cairo | 566 | 486 | 82 | 142 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 71 | 95 | 7 | .292 | .387 | .491 | 32 | 43 |
| average | 545 | 469 | 74 | 134 | 29 | 1 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 94 | 6 | .286 | .380 | .469 | 26 | 37 |
Posada projects to to be one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball again in 2008, although a fairly significant decline is expected. On average, the projections are expecting him to be worth around 37 runs above a replacement level catcher on offense.
Similar to PECOTA, CAIRO lets us look at a range of possible projections for Posada, so here's what that looks like like:
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 566 | 486 | 0 | 154 | 37 | 2 | 25 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 79 | 85 | 9 | .316 | .428 | .560 | 50 | 61 |
| 65% | 566 | 486 | 0 | 148 | 35 | 2 | 23 | 89 | 2 | 0 | 75 | 90 | 8 | .304 | .408 | .525 | 41 | 52 |
| Baseline | 566 | 486 | 0 | 142 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 71 | 95 | 7 | .292 | .387 | .491 | 32 | 43 |
| 35% | 566 | 486 | 0 | 136 | 29 | 1 | 19 | 80 | 1 | 1 | 67 | 100 | 5 | .280 | .367 | .456 | 23 | 34 |
| 20% | 566 | 486 | 0 | 130 | 26 | 0 | 16 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 62 | 105 | 4 | .267 | .347 | .422 | 14 | 25 |
CAIRO is more bullish than the other projection systems, but for the most part Posada is a good bet to provide above average offense for a catcher, even if he disappoints relative to his own expectations.
Defense
Unfortunately for us as Yankee fans, Posada projects to give back some of his value on defense. It's not that easy to quantify all the things that go into a catcher's defense, but here's how Posada has performed over the last four seasons on the things that can be quantified, and how he projects for 2008.
| Year | Last | First | Tm | Lg | Inn | SB | CS | CS% | PBWPR | TER | FER | Tot R | R/140 |
| 2004 | Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | 1102 | 66 | 23 | 26% | -3 | -2 | 1 | -6 | -7 |
| 2005 | Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | 1077 | 90 | 35 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | 1050 | 64 | 34 | 35% | -1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | 1111 | 101 | 29 | 22% | -4 | 2 | 0 | -9 | -10 |
| Proj | Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | 1085 | 84 | 31 | 27% | -2 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -4 |
SB : Stolen bases allowed
CS : Caught stealings
CS% : Caught stealing percentage
PBWPR : Passed ball and wild pitch runs compared to average
TER : Throwing error runs compared to average
FER : Fielding error runs compared to average
Tot R : Total defensive runs above/below average
R/140 : Tot R pro-rated to 140 defensive games
2007 was a brutal year, although Posada was average in 2005 and 2006. To project 2008 I use a 4/3/2/1 weight and subtract a run for aging, so Posada looks to be around a -5 defender.
Baserunning
Posada's one of the worst baserunners in baseball. Lee Panas over at Detroit Tiger Tales created a stat from Retrosheet called Bases gained above average and he told me he had Posada at -18 last year, which is around 5 runs below average using .28 runs per base. I'd probably knock a run or two off that when projecting 2008 since he won't be on base as much.
Value
A post at The Book blog pointed me to another post at USS Mariner where they tried to quantify the players on the Mariners' roster and if they were worth their 2008 salary. We keep reading about the Yankee payroll, so I thought I'd steal that idea for these previews as well. The average Major League team currently pays about $4.4 million per wins above replacement. Marginal wins are worth more to the Yankees, so I'll up that to $4.5 million. If we look at Posada's expected performance in total, we can see if he's getting paid fairly.
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 37 | 3.7 |
| Defense | -5 | -0.5 |
| Baserunning | -3 | -0.3 |
| Overall Value | 29 | 2.9 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 13.05 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 13.1 | |
| Difference | -0.05 |
Batting runs are compared to replacement level, but defense and baserunning are compared to average. I don't think you should calculate replacement level for all three areas because I don't think any player that is replacement-level at all three areas would ever see major league time.
At least for 2008, Posada's compensation is in line with his expected production.
Conclusion
Posada's been a big asset to the Yankees for 10 full seasons now. At age 36 his best days are likely behind him but there's no indication he won't be one of the better catchers in the league in 2008. From this point on it's a year by year thing. He could fall off the cliff at any time, but there's no sense worrying about it for now.
On a completely unrelated note, the first set of PECOTA standings are out and they have the Yankees projected to win the AL East with 96 wins. Shocking but true.
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