Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Johnny Damon
Year three of the four year Johnny Damon contract is upon us. I hated the contract when it was signed, then I liked it after a successful 2006. Now I hate it again, but let's see if I should.2007
Damon surprised many of us in 2006 by cranking out 24 HRs on his way to a pretty successful year. In 2007, Damon fell hard from an OPS+ of 115 to an OPS+ of 97.
| 2007 | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| Avg Projection | 635 | 570 | 102 | 165 | 30 | 4 | 17 | 75 | 17 | 6 | 59 | 77 | 3 | .289 | .357 | .447 | 90 |
| Actual | 605 | 533 | 93 | 144 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 63 | 27 | 3 | 66 | 79 | 2 | .270 | .351 | .396 | 84 |
| % Diff | -5% | -6% | -4% | -8% | -6% | -52% | -26% | -11% | 68% | -46% | 17% | 8% | -30% | -7% | -2% | -11% | -6% |
Damon reported to camp out of shape and ended up having a disappointing overall season, as he hit for 19 fewer points of batting average and slugged over 50 points lower than expected. Thanks to a higher than expected walk rate and a very successful season stealing bases he was able to salvage a good part of the value that was missing from his bat, and he ended up providing about 6% less offense than projected on a rate basis. Damon spend most of the first half scuffling, and through July 20 he was hitting .234/.338/.322. From July 21 on he hit .319/.370/496, which was nice but couldn't help him recover an overall disappointing season.
Offense
So what do we have to look forward to with Damon in 2008?
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 598 | 535 | 97 | 148 | 26 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 60 | 78 | 3 | .277 | .353 | .426 | -1 | 15 |
| marcel | 570 | 507 | 89 | 142 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 63 | 20 | 4 | 54 | 75 | 3 | .280 | .349 | .424 | -1 | 15 |
| pecota | 534 | 471 | 76 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 55 | 69 | 3 | .278 | .354 | .417 | -2 | 12 |
| zips | 575 | 519 | 93 | 145 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 54 | 73 | 2 | .279 | .350 | .408 | -4 | 11 |
| cairo | 647 | 575 | 98 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 74 | 21 | 5 | 64 | 81 | 3 | .287 | .358 | .437 | 2 | 20 |
| average | 585 | 521 | 91 | 146 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 18 | 4 | 58 | 75 | 3 | .280 | .353 | .423 | -1 | 15 |
Damon projects to be a below average hitter as a left fielder by most projection systems, with only CAIRO thinking he has a chance to better than that and not by much. But he should be above replacement level on offense which may be enough based on how his defense and baserunning look.
Here's is the range of projections that CAIRO sees for Damon:
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 647 | 575 | 108 | 178 | 34 | 6 | 21 | 82 | 26 | 2 | 72 | 72 | 5 | .309 | .393 | .497 | 22 | 39 |
| 65% | 647 | 575 | 103 | 171 | 32 | 5 | 19 | 78 | 24 | 3 | 68 | 76 | 4 | .298 | .375 | .467 | 12 | 30 |
| Baseline | 647 | 575 | 98 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 74 | 21 | 5 | 64 | 81 | 3 | .287 | .358 | .437 | 2 | 20 |
| 35% | 647 | 575 | 93 | 158 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 19 | 6 | 60 | 85 | 2 | .275 | .341 | .407 | -7 | 10 |
| 20% | 647 | 575 | 88 | 152 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 17 | 7 | 56 | 90 | 1 | .264 | .323 | .377 | -17 | 1 |
My guess is he'll be somewhere between his baseline and his 35% projection. I don't see him rebounding all that much but what do I know?
For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
Defense
Projecting Damon's defense as a left fielder is a little tricky since he only played 31 games there and is primarily a CF. However, we can use a positional adjustment for a CF moving to LF to try and give us more data to work with. To do that I'll use some of the information from this post at The Book blog.
TangoTiger's fan scouting report gives us a weighted average of the various components on defense, which he used to create a rough guide for position-neutral skill. So the #s below correspond to the skills in an average fielder at those positions.
C 67
CF 60
SS 59
2B 56
3B 54
RF 50
LF 43
1B 41
Tango estimates that each point difference is worth .7 runs. We can use what Damon's projected CF defense would look like in 2008, convert it to a LF rating and then add in the data we have for LF to try and guess how he'll do in LF in 2008.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2002 | CF | 151 | 1319 | 351 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 343 | 377 | .910 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 2003 | CF | 144 | 1265 | 362 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 355 | 392 | .906 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 2004 | CF | 148 | 1256 | 349 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 341 | 388 | .879 | -2 | -1 | -2 |
| 2005 | CF | 147 | 1225 | 394 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 387 | 440 | .880 | -9 | -7 | -8 |
| 2006 | CF | 131 | 1087 | 306 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 301 | 341 | .883 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 2007 | CF | 48 | 377 | 121 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 134 | .888 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2007 | LF | 32 | 271 | 71 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 68 | 79 | .861 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Projection | 115 | 963 | 284 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 278 | 314 | .886 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Damon projects to be about average as a CF in 2008 as far as catching fly balls. I'll give him a 58 on Tango's scale instead of a 60 due to aging. Comparing that to the average LF we get a a difference of 58-43 = 16. 16 times .7 gives us a run value of +11 in LF. We can add that to Damon's 32 games of average LF play in 2008 and say he projects to be somewhere between 5-10 runs above average in LF. Unfortunately, Damon gives back a fair amount of that with his arm. Based on the data I've seen, Damon's arm would probably cost the Yankees about five runs over a full season. So overall, Damon's probably an average to slightly above average LF defensively. That's actually not bad compared to Hideki Matsui, who regularly rates in the -10 to -15 area defensively.
Baserunning
Damon was the third most valuable baserunner in the league last year using Lee Panas's bases gained above average (33.6 BGAA). I'll knock that down to 25 to account for aging and regression, but that's still about 7 runs of value that Damon provides with his baserunning skill.
Value
The most common thought when Damon originally signed was that he'd give the Yankees two good years then start to decline. Unfortunately his decline started earlier than that, although the Yankees don't make the postseason in 2006 without him.
How Damon's defense ends up looking in LF makes a big difference.
-1 Defense
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 15 | 1.5 |
| Defense | -1 | -0.1 |
| Baserunning | 7 | 0.7 |
| Overall Value | 21 | 2.1 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 8.7 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 13.0 | |
| Difference | -4.3 |
+5 Defense
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 15 | 1.5 |
| Defense | 5 | 0.5 |
| Baserunning | 7 | 0.7 |
| Overall Value | 27 | 2.7 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 11.3 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 13.0 | |
| Difference | -1.7 |
Either way, Damon is being paid more than he is projected to be worth. In other news, the sun rises in the East.
Conclusion
I'm not a huge Damon fan, which is probably obvious from my post. I don't dislike him, but the fact that he couldn't be bothered to come into 2007 in shape really irritated me. Plus I still don't like that whole 2004 thing where they canceled the ALCS after three games and I blame him for that as well.
Putting all that aside, Damon does enough other stuff well besides hit that he should be an asset in LF, even if he's overpaid. His potentially plus defense and his good baserunning give him value that makes up for his likely below average LF offense. He also gives the Yankees some depth by being able to play CF as needed.
In other unrelated news
Brian at the new blog Yankeeblogography asked me to contribute to a roundtable on who should play first base for the Yanks. You can check out the post here.
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