Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jason Giambi
The Yankee hole at first base continues to exist. Right now, it looks like the Yankees are going to make Johnny Damon the primary LF and Hideki Matsui the primary DH, which means that if Jason Giambi is going to play, it'll probably be at 1B. There are plenty of other candidates including Morgan Ensberg, Wilson Betemit, Shelly Duncan and Jason Lane but I'll look at them later on when I look at the potential bench, so let's look at Giambi for now.For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
Offense
Giambi's 2007 was a disaster. He couldn't stay healthy, and when he was he didn't hit well. So what does he project to do in 2008?
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 413 | 333 | 67 | 81 | 13 | 0 | 20 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 69 | 83 | 11 | .243 | .390 | .462 | 6 | 17 |
| marcel | 409 | 331 | 54 | 83 | 15 | 0 | 20 | 63 | 2 | 0 | 65 | 82 | 10 | .251 | .386 | .477 | 7 | 18 |
| pecota | 300 | 247 | 40 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 67 | 5 | .235 | .363 | .453 | 1 | 9 |
| zips | 429 | 340 | 58 | 82 | 13 | 0 | 23 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 86 | 14 | .241 | .399 | .482 | 9 | 21 |
| cairo | 444 | 356 | 0 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 86 | 12 | .252 | .392 | .487 | 9 | 21 |
| average | 399 | 322 | 56 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 20 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 65 | 81 | 10 | .244 | .386 | .472 | 6 | 17 |
Giambi projects for around 400 plate appearances, and worth about 17 runs above a replacement-level 1B. Unlike with Jorge Posada, CAIRO's not overly optimistic here, basically in line with ZiPS. If we look at him as a DH instead he gets another run advantage, which isn't that much. Giambi is only a year removed from a strong .253/.413/.558 so there is some potential upside here, although at age 37 the odds are against him.
Here's CAIRO's range of projections for Giambi:
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 444 | 356 | 0 | 99 | 19 | 1 | 28 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 81 | 76 | 15 | .278 | .441 | .567 | 25 | 37 |
| 65% | 444 | 356 | 0 | 94 | 17 | 0 | 25 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 81 | 13 | .265 | .417 | .527 | 17 | 29 |
| Baseline | 444 | 356 | 0 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 86 | 12 | .252 | .392 | .487 | 9 | 21 |
| 35% | 444 | 356 | 0 | 85 | 13 | 0 | 20 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 90 | 10 | .238 | .368 | .447 | 1 | 13 |
| 20% | 444 | 356 | 0 | 80 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 95 | 8 | .225 | .344 | .407 | -7 | 6 |
Obviously if Giambi can reach that 65% or 80% projection he'd be a big asset in the middle of the order. I wouldn't bet on it, but it is a contract year so you never know...
Defense
Yeah.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2002 | 1B | 92 | 782 | 761 | 35 | 4 | 53 | 130 | 154 | .844 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | 1B | 85 | 743 | 748 | 19 | 4 | 63 | 104 | 129 | .806 | -4 | -3 | -7 |
| 2004 | 1B | 47 | 375 | 372 | 14 | 4 | 30 | 59 | 68 | .868 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 2005 | 1B | 78 | 560 | 581 | 19 | 7 | 50 | 69 | 91 | .758 | -9 | -7 | -19 |
| 2006 | 1B | 68 | 480 | 459 | 11 | 7 | 43 | 52 | 72 | .722 | -8 | -6 | -19 |
| 2007 | 1B | 18 | 121 | 108 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 26 | .808 | -1 | -1 | -8 |
| Projection | 70 | 535 | 533 | 16 | 6 | 46 | 70 | 89 | .784 | -6 | -5 | -11 |
Giambi's not a good defender, although I think he's probably not as bad as his reputation. One pretty significant issue is that he can't really hold up when he plays a lot of first base. For whatever reason the Yankees haven't tried Hideki Matsui at first, which seems like a no-brainer to me. So if Giambi plays first, he gives back a fair amount of his value although not all of it.
Baserunning
According to Lee Panas's bases gained above average, Giambi was -10 BGAA last year, which is around -3 runs. Seems about right to me.
Value
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 17 | 1.7 |
| Defense | -11 | -1.1 |
| Baserunning | -3 | -0.3 |
| Overall Value | 3 | 0.3 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 1.1 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 21.0 | |
| Difference | -19.9 |
Giambi's projection right now as a first baseman is basically replacement-level. If he can DH then he's about a win and half above replacement-level. There's a chance for better than that, but it's not the most likely outcome. This is probably the perfect example of a bad contract, although it's the last season of it.
Conclusion
I like Giambi, warts and all. I know he used steroids and I know he's broken down and had some bad seasons, but he seems like a good guy and he still might be able to surprise us with a good season. I think the Yankees will try him out and see what he has left but they have the bench depth and options to pull the plug if they have to so I don't think he'll hurt the team if he's done. I'll be rooting for him to do well, because I like him, and because if he does well he possibly makes this a historically good lineup.
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