Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Hideki Matsui
Hideki Matsui is currently penciled in as the primary DH for 2008, although I expect he'll get some time in the outfield when Johnny Damon or Melky Cabrera need a rest.2007
After missing the bulk of 2006 with a broken wrist, Matsui missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury but other than that played a full season. He wore down towards the end due to a knee injury but had a typically solid offensive year.
| 2007 | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| Avg Projection | 470 | 415 | 69 | 120 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 62 | 2 | .291 | .369 | .475 | 97 |
| Actual | 634 | 547 | 100 | 156 | 28 | 4 | 25 | 103 | 4 | 2 | 73 | 73 | 3 | .285 | .367 | .488 | 98 |
| % Diff | 35% | 32% | 7% | -4% | -16% | 184% | 12% | 8% | 58% | 58% | 6% | -13% | 3% | -2% | -1% | 3% | 1% |
Matsui basically did what he was projected to do overall, trading in a few singles for some triples, HRs, and walks and basically producing the same amount of offense on a rate basis. However, the shape of Matsui's offense was anything but consistent. There were three parts to Matsui's season.
From April 2 to July 2, Matsui hit below expectations.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 285 | 253 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 34 | 39 | 46 | 2 | 5 | .265 | .347 | .427 | .774 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 223 | 82 | 107 | 34 | 36.8% | 48.0% | 15.2% | 1 | 2 | 10.5% | 11.9% | .280 | .272 | 9.8% | 1 | 1 | 5 |
LF offense was down in the AL last year which made his position-adjusted numbers look ok, but he was about 70 pts below his projected OPS to that point. What followed was a hot streak that had to be seen to be believed.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 148 | 133 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 36 | 34 | 0 | 1 | .346 | .412 | .722 | 1.134 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 117 | 54 | 39 | 24 | 46.2% | 33.3% | 20.5% | 15 | 67 | 10.1% | 12.8% | .313 | .325 | 27.8% | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Hideki Mantle hit 15 HRs in his next 148 plate appearances, while drawing 15 walks and fanning just 19 times. His HR/FB percentage was off the charts and the Yankees went 22-10 over that stretch.
Matsui's power disappeared after that, which could have been related to the knee injury that he fought which necessitated off-season surgery.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 194 | 165 | 44 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 1 | 2 | .267 | .376 | .406 | .782 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 147 | 60 | 62 | 25 | 40.8% | 42.2% | 17.0% | 0 | 2 | 14.4% | 10.8% | .291 | .290 | 5.0% | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Unfortunately, that slump carried into the postseason which left a lot of Yankee fans cursing Matsui.
Offense
Projection systems don't care about streakiness or injuries. They just look at the numbers and the age of the player in question and spit out their expectations. I am considering Matsui's offense relative to DH here, not LF, although the overall difference is only a run or so.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 498 | 440 | 73 | 126 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 64 | 2 | .286 | .369 | .491 | 9 | 23 |
| marcel | 537 | 470 | 81 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 18 | 82 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 67 | 3 | .287 | .363 | .472 | 6 | 21 |
| pecota | 561 | 489 | 79 | 140 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 63 | 67 | 3 | .286 | .366 | .465 | 6 | 21 |
| zips | 614 | 544 | 95 | 158 | 33 | 4 | 20 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 67 | 71 | 3 | .290 | .371 | .476 | 9 | 26 |
| cairo | 539 | 470 | 80 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 68 | 2 | .286 | .367 | .484 | 9 | 23 |
| average | 550 | 483 | 82 | 139 | 27 | 3 | 20 | 86 | 3 | 2 | 61 | 68 | 3 | .287 | .367 | .478 | 8 | 23 |
So Matsui went from being projected to hit .291/.369/.475 in 2007 to being projected to hit .287/.367/.478 in 2008. There's one thing that may affect his projection though, and that's the fact that he'll be DHing more frequently this season.
Career as a LF
PA: 2284, .289/.368/.476
Career as a DH
PA: 288, .308/.382/.555
Small sample size caveats apply of course, but it does seem that Matsui can handle DHing, which some players cannot.
Here are CAIRO's range of projections for Matsui:
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 539 | 470 | 89 | 146 | 32 | 4 | 25 | 94 | 4 | 0 | 68 | 59 | 4 | .311 | .405 | .555 | 26 | 41 |
| 65% | 539 | 470 | 85 | 140 | 29 | 3 | 23 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 64 | 64 | 3 | .299 | .386 | .520 | 17 | 32 |
| Baseline | 539 | 470 | 80 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 68 | 2 | .286 | .367 | .484 | 9 | 23 |
| 35% | 539 | 470 | 76 | 129 | 24 | 1 | 18 | 80 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 72 | 2 | .274 | .347 | .449 | 0 | 14 |
| 20% | 539 | 470 | 71 | 123 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 76 | 1 | .262 | .328 | .413 | -9 | 6 |
Given his age and the nagging injuries catching up to him, I wouldn't expect anything more than the baseline for Matsui, which would be pretty good. If he gets 650 plate appearances instead of his projected 539, he's about three wins better than a replacement level DH.
For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
Defense
Matsui does not grade well defensively by zone rating, despite what the announcers will say about him.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2003 | LF | 118 | 997 | 210 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 208 | 244 | .852 | -8 | -6 | -9 |
| 2004 | LF | 160 | 1388 | 303 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 296 | 357 | .829 | -12 | -10 | -10 |
| 2005 | LF | 115 | 977 | 219 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 263 | .821 | -10 | -9 | -13 |
| 2006 | LF | 36 | 289 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 80 | 95 | .842 | -1 | -1 | -3 |
| 2007 | LF | 112 | 980 | 213 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 249 | .823 | -10 | -8 | -12 |
| Projection | LF | 148 | 1270 | 285 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 278 | 335 | .829 | -13 | -11 | -13 |
One of the biggest upgrades the Yankees have made at the start of 2008 compared to the start of 2007 will be changing from Damon in CF and Matsui in LF to Melky in CF and Damon in LF. It could very well be on the order of 20 run upgrade over a full season.
Baserunning
Matsui gets credit for being a "smart" baserunner, but he was basically average last year at 0.9 bases gained above average. That's better than being below average I reckon.
Value
The missed time in 2006 suppresses Matsui's expected playing time by quite a bit which in turn makes his contract look bad.
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 23 | 2.3 |
| Defense | 0 | 0.0 |
| Baserunning | 0 | 0.0 |
| Overall Value | 23 | 2.3 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 9.8 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 13.0 | |
| Difference | -3.2 |
The assumption here is he will not play enough LF for his defense to impact his value. If he does see more time than expected in the OF you can adjust his value accordingly. If he is able to play a full season he'll be closer to three wins above a replacement DH and then his contract will be pretty much in-line with his value.
Conclusion
A lot of Yankee fans seem to have turned on Matsui, and I'm not really sure why. He's a good hitter, even if he's not really Godzilla. If you forget about position adjustments and just look at pure offensive projections, here's how the Yankees rank as far as their projected batting runs per 650 plate appearances on average:
Rodriguez 121
Giambi 99
Posada 98
Matsui 97
Cano 94
Abreu 93
Jeter 91
Damon 84
Cabrera 79
The odds of Posada or Giambi getting 650 plate appearances is pretty slim, so there's a decent chance Matsui will be the seond most valuable hitter on the team in 2008. He's not a good defender, but that's hopefully not going to be an issue this year. He just goes out and does his job and for the most part he does it decently. Hopefully his knee injury is past him and he can have a solid full season.
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