Friday, February 22, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Derek Jeter
2007Jeter's 2007 seemed like a disappointment after his MVP-caliber 2006, but he actually hit almost exactly like he was projected to.
| 2007 | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| Avg Projection | 663 | 587 | 107 | 182 | 32 | 3 | 15 | 76 | 20 | 5 | 60 | 99 | 11 | .311 | .382 | .451 | 94 |
| Actual | 714 | 639 | 102 | 206 | 39 | 4 | 12 | 73 | 15 | 8 | 56 | 100 | 14 | .322 | .388 | .452 | 94 |
| % Diff | 8% | 9% | -11% | 5% | 12% | 28% | -25% | -11% | -31% | 62% | -13% | -6% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
Percentages for PA and AB are just the actual differences between projection and actual. For everything else it is based on the rate per plate appearance. So Jeter actually had 11% more hits than expected on a rate basis. His HRs and SB dropped off a good amount, and he walked less. But overall, he did about what he was expected to do.
Offense
For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
For 2008, most of the projections are expecting him to hit worse, which is logical given Jeter's age.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 668 | 598 | 108 | 180 | 32 | 3 | 16 | 73 | 14 | 5 | 59 | 102 | 11 | .301 | .374 | .445 | 16 | 32 |
| marcel | 628 | 554 | 94 | 174 | 31 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 18 | 5 | 57 | 95 | 10 | .314 | .384 | .446 | 17 | 32 |
| pecota | 637 | 568 | 89 | 169 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 64 | 13 | 4 | 55 | 94 | 7 | .297 | .362 | .407 | 6 | 21 |
| zips | 694 | 616 | 106 | 190 | 33 | 3 | 13 | 83 | 15 | 5 | 66 | 106 | 12 | .308 | .386 | .435 | 17 | 34 |
| cairo | 711 | 628 | 106 | 198 | 35 | 3 | 16 | 79 | 19 | 5 | 64 | 105 | 12 | .315 | .385 | .457 | 22 | 39 |
| average | 668 | 593 | 101 | 182 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 74 | 16 | 5 | 60 | 100 | 10 | .307 | .378 | .438 | 15 | 31 |
CAIRO once again reveals its Yankee bias, although I think a healthy Jeter should do about what CAIRO thinks. Here's the range of Jeter's CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 711 | 628 | 116 | 212 | 41 | 5 | 20 | 88 | 23 | 3 | 72 | 95 | 15 | .337 | .421 | .514 | 42 | 59 |
| 65% | 711 | 628 | 111 | 205 | 38 | 4 | 18 | 83 | 21 | 4 | 68 | 100 | 14 | .326 | .403 | .485 | 32 | 49 |
| Baseline | 711 | 628 | 106 | 198 | 35 | 3 | 16 | 79 | 19 | 5 | 64 | 105 | 12 | .315 | .385 | .457 | 22 | 39 |
| 35% | 711 | 628 | 101 | 191 | 32 | 2 | 14 | 75 | 17 | 7 | 60 | 110 | 10 | .304 | .367 | .429 | 12 | 29 |
| 20% | 711 | 628 | 95 | 184 | 29 | 1 | 12 | 70 | 15 | 8 | 56 | 115 | 9 | .293 | .349 | .401 | 1 | 18 |
If healthy, I think Jeter can get to that 65% projection, which is a little less than what he did in 2006.
Defense
I always hate this part of my Jeter preview, because I always get grief for hating Jeter. So I'm doing something different this year.
If you take the blue pill, you can read about three-time Gold Glove winner Derek Jeter. If you take the red pill you can read about Derek Jeter and the statistics that say he's not a good defender. If you take the red pill, you forfeit all rights to bitch, you were warned.
Blue Pill: Derek Jeter has won three Gold Gloves. You have to watch him play every day to appreciate just how good he is. Stat nerds should take their heads out of their spreadsheets and watch some games. The end.
Red Pill: Derek Jeter's defense continues to be a sore spot. It's hard to argue against that when every single play by play defensive metric worth considering says the same basic thing. 2007 was especially bad. According to zone rating, it was the worst defensive season of his career, as Jeter made 27 fewer plays than an average SS, which translates to being 20 runs worse than average.
Jeter was hobbled by a knee injury last season, which visibly affected him on the basepaths and in the field. No, he's not a good defender, but he's probably not a -20 defender either. Here's a look at the last six seasons and his 2008 projection.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2002 | SS | 156 | 1383 | 219 | 367 | 14 | 69 | 358 | 446 | .803 | -21 | -16 | -16 |
| 2003 | SS | 118 | 1034 | 160 | 271 | 14 | 51 | 272 | 344 | .791 | -18 | -14 | -19 |
| 2004 | SS | 154 | 1342 | 273 | 392 | 13 | 96 | 371 | 438 | .847 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 2005 | SS | 157 | 1353 | 262 | 454 | 15 | 96 | 434 | 523 | .830 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | SS | 150 | 1292 | 214 | 381 | 15 | 81 | 374 | 462 | .810 | -7 | -5 | -6 |
| 2007 | SS | 155 | 1318 | 199 | 390 | 18 | 104 | 365 | 477 | .765 | -27 | -20 | -22 |
| Projection | 151 | 1299 | 221 | 388 | 16 | 90 | 372 | 463 | .802 | -13 | -10 | -11 |
Aging is factored in here as well, since defense declines from a player's mid 20s. A -10 projection isn't very good, but it's a lot better than -20.
Baserunning
Jeter's a good baserunner, no one disputes that. He was only 3.7 BGAA last season, but his knee injury was a big factor in that. Dan Fox had Jeter at +25 runs for baserunning from 2000-2005 on his blog using a similar methodology to Lee's, which is around +14 bases gained per year. I'll bump Jeter up to 10 BGAA here based on that.
Value
Add it all up, and here's how Jeter's value looks ON THE FIELD.
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 31 | 3.1 |
| Defense | -10 | -1.0 |
| Baserunning | 3 | 0.3 |
| Overall Value | 24 | 2.4 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 10.3 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 20.0 | |
| Difference | -9.7 |
Jeter's overpaid in a pure marginal/incremental win sense based on what he is projected to do on the field, but when it comes to assessing Jeter's value, I think it's fair to also consider his value as a box-office draw and in marketing. We can't quantify that, but I'm sure the Yankees have ways that they can.
Conclusion
Jeter's a good player, overrated or not. His bat projects well enough to play any position on the field. Here's how Jeter's projection would look at each position in batting runs above replacement level.
1B: +21 BRAR
2B: +28 BRAR
3B: +26 BRAR
SS: +31 BRAR
LF: +23 BRAR
CF: +26 BRAR
RF: +22 BRAR
DH: +24 BRAR
A position change really should be something that the Yankees are looking at, sooner rather than later. I can't fault Jeter for playing short, it's not his call to move off, it should be management's. But at least for 2008, even at shortstop, Jeter projects to be an asset to the Yankees in their quest for number 27.
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