Monday, March 10, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang
With the position players done and accounted for, it's time to move on to the Yankee pitching. The numbers show that the position players should do their part to make the Yankees a contender, so it's up to the pitching to not hamper that. First up, it's the Yankees likely opening day starter, Chien-Ming Wang.2007
After a solid regular season that saw Wang rank as one of the top 15 starting pitchers in the American League by most measures came a disastrous postseason that was the chief reason the Yankees did not advance out of the ALDS. Unfortunately, this tarnished what was an overall good season and led to many Yankee fans wanting him shipped out for pennies on the dollar because he's teh unclutch.
Wang is the type of player that can't be easily projected. To this point in his career Wang has done three things well. He suppresses HRs, he walks fewer batters than average, and he allows a lower percentage of hits on balls in play than the average. The walk rate is a skill that can't be taken away from him. HRs allowed are normally a function of a pitchers' fly ball percentage, usually around 11%. In his career, Wang is around 7.7%. The league average BABIP is around .304, Wang's career mark is .287. So when you regress HR rate and hit rate towards league average as most projection systems do, Wang gets penalized more than most pitchers. His low K rate doesn't really impact his projections as much as assumed.
Regarding the HR rate, I'm not so sure that we should assume that all fly balls are equal. I don't know if anyone has ever studied the correlation between HRs per fly ball and ground ball rate, but it may be an interesting study. Regarding BABIP, there is at least some anecdotal evidence that Wang allows more easily fieldable ground balls, as do most ground ball pitchers.
Wang exceeded his projections pretty significantly in 2007.
| Chien-Ming Wang | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.17 | 29 | 181 | 199 | 91 | 84 | 16 | 48 | 78 | 8 | 8 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Actual | 3.70 | 30 | 199 | 199 | 84 | 82 | 9 | 59 | 104 | 23 | 23 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 4.7 |
| Difference | 113% | 105% | 110% | 276% | 276% | 110% | 195% | 89% | 121% |
RSAA: runs saved above average
RSAA/200: RSAA pro-rated to 200 innings
*All differences are on a rate basis except for G and IP. All percentages are set so that a percentage better than 100 means the pitcher was better than expected, and a percentage lower than 100 means they were worse (on a rate basis).
Wang saved 15 runs more than expected compared to average. He allowed 10% fewer hits than expected, 95% fewer HRs than projected and struck out 21% more than expected. His walk rate was 11% worse than projected, which probably goes in hand with him experimenting with more pitches and his improved strikeout rate.
On the surface, Wang's 2007 was a carbon copy of his 2006. 19-6 with a 3.63 ERA vs. 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA. If you look at the numbers in a little more detail there are some differences though, primarily in his splits. I've calcualted the splits below from Retrosheet's play by play data, so they may differ slightly from splits you may see elsewhere.
| Split | PA | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS s | F% | L% | G% | P% |
| Vs LHB | 429 | 393 | 77 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 34 | .285 | .345 | .417 | .762 | .073 | 17% | 25% | 55% | 3% |
| Vs RHB | 389 | 359 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 70 | .242 | .301 | .312 | .613 | .080 | 15% | 18% | 63% | 3% |
| Total | 818 | 752 | 146 | 38 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 8 | 104 | .265 | .324 | .367 | .691 | .038 | 16% | 22% | 58% | 3% |
OPS s: OPS sigma
F%: Fly ball %
L%: Line drive %
G%: Groundball %
P%: Popup %
Contrast that to Wang's splits in 2005 and 2006.
| Split | PA | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS s | F% | L% | G% | P% |
| Vs LHB | 625 | 584 | 112 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 48 | .271 | .318 | .392 | .711 | .066 | 16% | 16% | 63% | 4% |
| Vs RHB | 737 | 693 | 148 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 75 | .271 | .315 | .359 | .674 | .056 | 17% | 15% | 65% | 3% |
| Total | 1362 | 1277 | 260 | 61 | 4 | 21 | 77 | 8 | 123 | .271 | .316 | .374 | .691 | .030 | 16% | 16% | 64% | 4% |
Lefties hit Wang much harder in 2007. Their line drive percentage went from 16% to 25% which led to a higher batting average. In 2005-2006, Wang walked 6.4% of the lefties he faced and struck out 7.7%. In 2007 he walked 7.9% of the lefties he faced and fanned 7.9%. For righties he went from striking out 10.2% in 2005 and 2006 to 18.0% in 2007, with his walk rate going from 5% to 6.2%. These numbers tell me that Wang was making adjustments in 2007, and it'll be interesting to see what that means for 2008.
2008
As Wang continues to perform, the projection systems are starting to fall in line.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 30 | 30 | 189 | 217 | 99 | 91 | 14 | 55 | 96 | 4.33 | 4.02 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 23 |
| marcel | 28 | 28 | 181 | 184 | 81 | 77 | 11 | 53 | 92 | 3.83 | 3.85 | 13 | 31 | 10 | 25 |
| pecota | 29 | 29 | 178 | 200 | 97 | 87 | 14 | 59 | 95 | 4.37 | 4.16 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 19 |
| zips | 30 | 30 | 200 | 213 | 95 | 87 | 13 | 53 | 87 | 3.92 | 3.97 | 12 | 32 | 8 | 26 |
| cairo | 30 | 30 | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 28 |
| average | 29 | 29 | 189 | 203 | 92 | 85 | 13 | 55 | 92 | 4.05 | 3.97 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 24 |
The projection systems see Wang around a 4 ERA which would make him about a win better than average, or three wins better than a replacement level starter. Here's his range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 187 | 78 | 75 | 8 | 47 | 98 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 23 | 43 | 20 | 37 |
| 65% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 194 | 82 | 79 | 9 | 50 | 94 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 18 | 38 | 16 | 33 |
| Baseline | 30 | 30 | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 28 |
| 35% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 208 | 92 | 89 | 13 | 58 | 84 | 4.05 | 4.06 | 9 | 29 | 6 | 23 |
| 20% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 215 | 96 | 93 | 14 | 61 | 80 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 19 |
Projection systems are meant to be objective, so they just look at the numbers. Wang's stats belie the quality of his stuff, which we can see if we use Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X tool. Wang's sinker averages 94 mph. That's a dominant pitch, even if it doesn't result in strikeouts. It also seems like Wang is working on refining his slider and changeup which can only help him. It'll be interesting to see if new pitching coach Dave Eiland can help Wang in that regard.
I see Wang somewhere between the 65% and the baseline projection this year, which is basically what he has done to this point in his career.
Value
Wang's in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and lost his case with the Yankees. He'll make $4 million this season which makes him a bargain compared to what teams pay on the free agent market for a marginal win.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.8 | $12,397,876 | $4,000,000 | $8,397,876 |
The Yankees have been hesitant to sign Wang to a long-term deal, which makes sense given his past injury history and the fact that he is difficult to project. If he continues to perform as he has he's probably worth around $10-12 million a season.
Conclusion
I know Wang had a bad postseason, but I'm still a fan. He's probably miscast as a #1 starter when comparing him to the Johan Santana and Jake Peavy class of pitcher, but he's been one of the top fourteen pitchers in the AL the last two years, which by definition makes him a top starter. With Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain up with the team now, Wang may be supplanted as the Yankees' "ace" as soon as this season. Then maybe he'll get credit for being what he is, which is a good solid starter that ANY team in baseball would be glad to have.
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