Monday, March 3, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Bobby Abreu
After coming over in a big trade in 2006 and sparking the Yankees to the division title, Bobby Abreu's second season in pinstripes started slowly before picking up steam. The Yankees had a decision to make at the end of 2007 about picking up his $16 million option for 2008, which they ended up doing, so he'll be back in right field this season.2007
Abreu supposedly reported to camp out of shape, and then pulled an oblique muscle during spring training. Although he was able to start the season without going on the DL, he struggled for much of the first two months of the season, although we can't know for certain if it was the oblique or just a slump. Whatever it was, it led to him underperforming his projections going into the season.
| 2007 | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| Avg Projection | 622 | 512 | 96 | 145 | 32 | 2 | 18 | 83 | 25 | 6 | 102 | 118 | 5 | .283 | .404 | .458 | 97 |
| Actual | 699 | 605 | 123 | 171 | 40 | 5 | 16 | 101 | 25 | 8 | 84 | 115 | 3 | .283 | .369 | .445 | 89 |
| % Diff | 12% | 18% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 188% | -21% | 8% | -13% | 13% | -27% | -14% | -41% | 0% | -9% | -3% | -8% |
Abreu matched his projected batting average, but his walk rate dropped by 27%, and while he hit for more doubles than projected his HR power dropped. Overall, he provided about 8% less offense than projected on a rate basis.
We can play the selective end point game with Abreu. Here's what Abreu did from the start of the season through May 30.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 223 | 197 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 42 | 32 | 22 | 2 | 2 | .228 | .318 | .289 | .608 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 157 | 52 | 78 | 27 | 33.1% | 49.7% | 17.2% | -9 | -26 | 10.8% | 18.8% | .281 | .292 | 3.8% | 8 | 2 | 9 |
He was a little unlucky as far as his BABIP, but not exceedingly so. He was striking out in almost 19% of his plate appearances, which was disturbing, and walking in around 10% of his plate appearances, compared to his projected 16%.
Abreu took off from June 1 through the end of the season hitting for the following line.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | SO | R | RBI | HBP | IFH | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 469 | 408 | 126 | 34 | 5 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 73 | 91 | 79 | 1 | 7 | .309 | .399 | .520 | .918 |
| BIP | FB | GB | LD | FB% | GB% | LD% | BRAA | p650 | BB/PA | K/PA | BABIP | xBABIP | HR/FB | SB | CS | GDP |
| 337 | 118 | 147 | 72 | 35.0% | 43.6% | 21.4% | 21 | 30 | 12.8% | 15.6% | .349 | .334 | 11.9% | 17 | 6 | 2 |
Abreu hit more line drives, walked more and fanned less. He had a little bit of good fortune when comparing his BABIP to his expected BABIP, although not exceedingly so. One thing that I find interesting is Abreu walked less than he was projected to. Whether that was just a blip or a conscious decision or the fact that he was batting in front of the 2007 AL MVP, I have no idea, but that drop in walks was the main reason he was less valuable than he was projected to be. It's also interesting to see that he hit into nine double plays through May 30 and then hit into just two more for the rest of the season.
Offense
The 2008 projections predict a slight improvement in his OBP but continued decline in his SLG.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 650 | 555 | 99 | 149 | 33 | 2 | 16 | 83 | 21 | 7 | 91 | 124 | 4 | .268 | .375 | .422 | 2 | 20 |
| marcel | 618 | 518 | 93 | 146 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 88 | 24 | 6 | 88 | 114 | 4 | .282 | .385 | .446 | 9 | 26 |
| pecota | 581 | 491 | 91 | 135 | 28 | 3 | 15 | 69 | 18 | 6 | 81 | 105 | 3 | .276 | .377 | .435 | 4 | 20 |
| zips | 676 | 573 | 106 | 163 | 37 | 2 | 17 | 111 | 22 | 7 | 99 | 117 | 4 | .284 | .393 | .445 | 10 | 29 |
| cairo | 612 | 513 | 95 | 142 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 88 | 23 | 6 | 90 | 108 | 4 | .276 | .385 | .447 | 9 | 26 |
| average | 627 | 530 | 97 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 16 | 87 | 22 | 6 | 90 | 114 | 4 | .277 | .383 | .439 | 7 | 24 |
CHONE and PECOTA are a little skeptical, but Marcel, ZiPS and CAIRO all like Abreu's chances of bouncing back in the OBP category. Here are CAIRO's percentile range projections:
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 612 | 513 | 105 | 153 | 38 | 4 | 21 | 97 | 28 | 3 | 100 | 98 | 6 | .299 | .423 | .512 | 28 | 45 |
| 65% | 612 | 513 | 100 | 148 | 35 | 3 | 19 | 92 | 25 | 5 | 95 | 103 | 5 | .288 | .404 | .480 | 19 | 35 |
| Baseline | 612 | 513 | 95 | 142 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 88 | 23 | 6 | 90 | 108 | 4 | .276 | .385 | .447 | 9 | 26 |
| 35% | 612 | 513 | 90 | 136 | 30 | 2 | 15 | 83 | 21 | 7 | 86 | 113 | 3 | .264 | .366 | .415 | -1 | 16 |
| 20% | 612 | 513 | 85 | 130 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 78 | 18 | 8 | 81 | 119 | 2 | .253 | .347 | .383 | -11 | 6 |
I don't think Abreu's a good bet to slug much better than that baseline, but I could see him getting back up to a .400 OBP again if he can hit around .290. A .290/.400/.450 line would be great.
For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series.
Defense
Abreu isn't a very good defender, although I think there is too much focus on his fear of the wall. He's slightly below average in my opinion, but nowhere as bad as someone like Gary Sheffield was out there. Zone Rating agrees for the most part.
| Year | Pos | GP | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RSAA/162 |
| 2002 | RF | 148 | 1225 | 252 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 266 | .929 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 2003 | RF | 158 | 1373 | 304 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 298 | 333 | .895 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 2004 | RF | 158 | 1395 | 311 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 305 | 350 | .871 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | RF | 158 | 1364 | 266 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 264 | 309 | .854 | -5 | -5 | -5 |
| 2006 | RF | 154 | 1293 | 291 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 291 | 342 | .851 | -7 | -6 | -7 |
| 2007 | RF | 157 | 1333 | 313 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 309 | 360 | .858 | -4 | -3 | -3 |
| Projection | 1.3 | 155 | 1329 | 284 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 282 | 329 | .859 | -5 | -5 | -5 |
Abreu has declined over the last six seasons, and projects to be around a -5 defender in 2008. He does have a decently good arm, according to John Walsh's Best outfield arms of 2007 Abreu saved about 3 runs above an average RF. That's pretty consistent with his ratings in other seasons, so overall I'd project Abreu as a -2 defender, range plus arm.
Baserunning
By Lee Panas's bases gained above average, Abreu is a solid baserunner all around. He was 1.1 BGAA on hits, 1.2 BGAA on grounders, 5.7 BGAA on fly balls, and 0.7 BGAA on other events, for a total of 8.7 BGAA. That's worth around 2.4 runs, which I'll knock down to 2 for 2008.
Value
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 24 | 2.4 |
| Defense | -2 | -0.2 |
| Baserunning | 2 | 0.2 |
| Overall Value | 24 | 2.4 |
| 2008 Value (in millions) | 10.1 | |
| 2008 Salary (in millions) | 16.0 | |
| Difference | -5.9 |
Abreu's loss of power hurts his value somewhat as a right fielder. The average AL RF hit .288/.359/.465 last year compared to Abreu's .283/.369/.445. On average he projects to be seven runs better than an average RF or 24 runs better than a replacement level RF, with his below average defense being mitigated by his above average baserunning.
Abreu's option likely overpays him in 2008, although if he can hit that CAIRO 65% projection he'd only be overpaid by $1 million or so.
Conclusion
Abreu is following an odd career trajectory. Power is usually one skill that players keep into their late 30s but it seems to be vanishing on him. He's still a good complementary player who does enough other stuff well besides hitting homers that he's an asset to the team for 2008. I probably wouldn't re-sign him after this season, but he's a good placeholder while the Yankees wait and see if someone like Austin Jackson or Jose Tabata develops enough to make the 2009 OF.
On a different and completely unrelated note, reader and sometimes commenter plank informed me about a friend of his named Bill Kapoun who has suffered some serious injuries in a fire. He is an English teacher but did not have medical insurance and is now looking at medical bills over $100,000. If anyone can spare anything to help, you can visit http://billkapoun.com/ or contact plank via email (matthewsellar@yahoo.com).
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