Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Andy Pettitte
It's been a tumultous offseason for Andy Pettitte, who has had to deal with being named in the Mitchell report as well as with the Roger Clemens/Brian McNamee soap opera. Pettitte initially declined his 2008 player option but decided to re-up with the Yankees the day before the report came out. The timing could be looked at as suspicious, but when Pettitte decided to come back the Yankees had less need to pursue Johan Santana. With Phil Hughes looking like every bit the phenom he was hyped to be in 2005-2006, that may turn out to be even more important than whatever Pettitte gives the Yankees this year. Incidentally, the Yankees drafted Hughes with the compenation pick they got for Pettitte leaving for the Astros. Everything under the sun is in tune...2007
Pettitte had a solid season overall for the Yankees in 2007, with some good luck in the early part of the season. Here are Pettitte's stats through June 14:
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | TBF | Stk% |
| 14 | 4 | 4 | 92.0 | 91 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 50 | 26 | 377 | 62.6% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 31.5% | 51.7% | 16.8% | 2.93 | 3.42 | 3.67 | 4.39 | 0.05 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 15.3 | .295 |
FB%: Fly ball %
GB%: Ground ball %
LD%: Line drive %
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
xFIP: Expected FIP (uses FB x .11 instead of HRs)
HR/FB: HRs per fly ball
RSAA: Runs saved above average
Pettitte had a 2.93 ERA, but he had given up five unearned runs and he had a FIP of 3.67. Then came a five game stretch where Pettitte was inexplicably bad.
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | TBF | Stk% |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 26.0 | 42 | 3 | 27 | 26 | 16 | 9 | 123 | 62.3% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 34.7% | 41.1% | 24.2% | 9.00 | 9.35 | 4.51 | 4.82 | 0.09 | 3.1 | 5.5 | -12.8 | .411 |
Pettitte's K rate actually went up, but he was killed on balls in play, allowing a BABIP of .411. His ERA was almost double his FIP. Pettite was not really unlucky, his line drive percentage shot up from 16.8% through June 14 to 24.2%. A LD% of 24.2% corresponds with an expected BABIP of .362. Pettitte was getting hit, and getting hit hard.
As most things small sample, this turned out to be a blip. Pettitte finished the season fairly well, looking at his line post All Star Break.
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | TBF | Stk% |
| 15 | 10 | 3 | 97.3 | 105 | 8 | 44 | 41 | 75 | 34 | 416 | 62.5% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 33.8% | 45.9% | 20.3% | 3.79 | 4.07 | 3.78 | 4.22 | 0.08 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | .318 |
Pettitte's peripherals were basically in line with his pitching over the rest of the season, as he improved his K rate and went 10-3 over his final 15 starts.
Pettitte basically matched his projections in 2007.
| Andy Pettitte | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.11 | 31 | 189 | 199 | 95 | 86 | 22 | 53 | 139 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 6.6 |
| Actual | 4.05 | 36 | 215 | 238 | 106 | 97 | 16 | 69 | 141 | 10 | 9 | 9.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 5.9 |
| Difference | 101% | 116% | 114% | 99% | 83% | 95% | 159% | 88% | 89% |
Although Pettitte was better in ERA than projected, most of his peripherals were worse. He was more hittable, had a higher walk rate, and struck out fewer hitters. He did prevent HRs at a better rate than expected which helped mitigate that.
2008
It's hard to believe but Pettitte will turn 36 this year. Despite his whirlwind offseason he appears to be healthy and in good shape so far this spring. Here's how he projects for 2008.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 34 | 32 | 199 | 227 | 109 | 101 | 20 | 66 | 132 | 4.57 | 4.17 | -2 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| marcel | 33 | 30 | 188 | 205 | 94 | 85 | 18 | 59 | 135 | 4.07 | 3.95 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 24 |
| pecota | 28 | 28 | 176 | 187 | 90 | 83 | 18 | 60 | 117 | 4.22 | 4.25 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 17 |
| zips | 35 | 33 | 213 | 228 | 105 | 96 | 20 | 62 | 141 | 4.06 | 3.97 | 10 | 31 | 9 | 27 |
| cairo | 35 | 34 | 213 | 242 | 113 | 102 | 20 | 60 | 153 | 4.31 | 3.83 | 4 | 25 | 12 | 30 |
| average | 33 | 32 | 198 | 218 | 102 | 93 | 19 | 61 | 136 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 5 | 25 | 7 | 24 |
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement
FRSAA: FIP runs saved above average
FRSAR: FIP runs saved above replacement
The projection systems see Pettite anywhere from 17 to 30 runs above a replacement pitcher in 2008, with an ERA in the low to mid 4 area. Here's how his range of CAIRO projections shape up.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 226 | 102 | 92 | 16 | 52 | 165 | 3.88 | 3.33 | 14 | 35 | 24 | 42 |
| 65% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 234 | 108 | 97 | 18 | 56 | 159 | 4.10 | 3.58 | 9 | 30 | 18 | 36 |
| Baseline | 35 | 34 | 213 | 242 | 113 | 102 | 20 | 60 | 153 | 4.31 | 3.83 | 4 | 25 | 12 | 30 |
| 35% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 250 | 118 | 107 | 22 | 64 | 147 | 4.52 | 4.08 | -1 | 20 | 6 | 25 |
| 20% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 258 | 124 | 112 | 24 | 68 | 141 | 4.74 | 4.33 | -6 | 15 | 1 | 19 |
I think the baseline is about right. Pettitte's hittable but he does pretty well with two thing that allow him to outperform his peripherals. He has a good pickoff move at first and he is able to induce double plays. His left elbow is always going to be a little bit of of a concern, but he's thrown 222.3, 214.3 and 215.3 innings the last three seasons.
Value
Pettitte will make $16 million in 2008.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.4 | $10,788,543 | $16,000,000 | -$5,211,457 |
Based on his projections and the cost of a marginal win on the free agent market, Pettitte's overpaid. If he hits his 65% projection he'll be paid right around what he's worth. Again, it's worth mentioning that Pettitte returning may have saved Phil Hughes and also may have saved the Yankees from the risk of overpaying for a potentially declining Johan Santana.
Conclusion
Pettitte won his 200th game last year. The odds of him making it to 300 are slim, but he's put together a very solid career. He's not a Hall of Famer in my mind, only his 1997 and 2005 seasons strike me as HOF quality seasons, but he's been a workhorse throughout his career while giving his team above average innings.
As far as the HGH issue, I'd wager a large amount of money that more people than appeared in the woefully incomplete Mitchell report used PEDs. It's my opinion that the people named in the report are being scapegoated by the owners as they continue to find ways to try and suppress player salaries and break the MLBPA. I just can't get that worked up about Pettitte being named in what I think is a dog and pony show.
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