Friday, May 8, 2009
Log5 Checkpoint Through Games of May 7
When we last checked in on the Yankees and how their performance stacked up compared to log5 expectations, the Yankees were 9-6 compared to an estimated 8.6-6.4.Here's how their actual performance compares to what log5 would have expected for the games between April 24 and May 7.
| Date | Game | Yankee W% | Opp W% | log5 W | log5 L | Act W | Act L | Diff |
| 4/24/2009 | Yankees at Red Sox | .462 | .538 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 7.0 | -0.1 |
| 4/25/2009 | Yankees at Red Sox | .462 | .538 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | -0.5 |
| 4/26/2009 | Yankees at Red Sox | .462 | .538 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 4/27/2009 | Yankees at Tigers | .541 | .459 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.5 |
| 4/28/2009 | Yankees at Tigers | .541 | .459 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | -1.1 |
| 4/29/2009 | Yankees at Tigers | .541 | .459 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 10.0 | -0.6 |
| 4/30/2009 | Angels at Yankees | .600 | .400 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 10.0 | -0.2 |
| 5/1/2009 | Angels at Yankees | .600 | .400 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 0.2 |
| 5/2/2009 | Angels at Yankees | .600 | .400 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 11.0 | -0.4 |
| 5/4/2009 | Red Sox at Yankees | .545 | .455 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | -1.0 |
| 5/5/2009 | Red Sox at Yankees | .545 | .455 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 13.0 | -1.5 |
| 5/6/2009 | Rays at Yankees | .565 | .435 | 15.1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 14.0 | -2.1 |
| 5/7/2009 | Rays at Yankees | .565 | .435 | 15.6 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 15.0 | -2.6 |
Yankee W%: Yankees expected winning percentage adjusted for home/road games.
Opp W%: Yankee opponents' expected winning percentage adjusted for home/road games.
log5 W: Expected wins based on Yankee and opponent winning percentage using the log5 formula.
log5 L: Expected losses based on Yankee and opponent winning percentage using the log5 formula.
Act W: Actual wins.
Act L: Actual losses.
Diff: Act W - log5 W (Greater than 0 means ahead of pace, less than 0 means behind pace)
Winning percentages are based on PythagenPat and are calculated using a weight of 10% for 2009 actual performance and 90% for the cumulative 2009 projections from the Diamond Mind projections I ran in March.
Basically, what this is saying is that if the Yankees really were expected to win around 95 games, they're now on pace to win 92.4. A 2.5 game underperformance over just 13 games is pretty Veras-y. Still, a a little hot streak should be able to get them back to where they need to be. The question is, do they have that in them?
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