Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Log5 Checkpoint Through Games of April 22
| Date | Game | Yankee W% | Opp W% | log5 W | log5 L | Act W | Act L | Diff |
| 4/6/2009 | Yankees at Orioles | .584 | .416 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| 4/8/2009 | Yankees at Orioles | .584 | .416 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| 4/9/2009 | Yankees at Orioles | .584 | .416 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
| 4/10/2009 | Yankees at Royals | .591 | .409 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -0.3 |
| 4/11/2009 | Yankees at Royals | .591 | .409 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| 4/12/2009 | Yankees at Royals | .591 | .409 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
| 4/13/2009 | Yankees at Rays | .483 | .517 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 4/14/2009 | Yankees at Rays | .483 | .517 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -0.5 |
| 4/15/2009 | Yankees at Rays | .483 | .517 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 4/16/2009 | Indians at Yankees | .597 | .403 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | -0.6 |
| 4/17/2009 | Indians at Yankees | .597 | .403 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -0.2 |
| 4/18/2009 | Indians at Yankees | .597 | .403 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | -0.8 |
| 4/19/2009 | Indians at Yankees | .597 | .403 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 | -0.4 |
| 4/21/2009 | Athletics at Yankees | .617 | .383 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| 4/22/2009 | Athletics at Yankees | .617 | .383 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 0.4 |
Yankee W%: Yankees expected winning percentage adjusted for home/road games.
Opp W%: Yankee opponents' expected winning percentage adjusted for home/road games.
log5 W: Expected wins based on Yankee and opponent winning percentage using the log5 formula.
log5 L: Expected losses based on Yankee and opponent winning percentage using the log5 formula.
Act W: Actual wins.
Act L: Actual losses.
Diff: Act W - log5 W (Greater than 0 means ahead of pace, less than 0 means behind pace)
After splitting with Cleveland, the Yankees were about 0.8 wins behind where they should have been. However, after taking two straight from Oakland they're now about 0.4 games ahead of where they should be. Log5 says that the Yankees should go 1.4-1.6 in Boston, which basically means as long as they take 1 of 3 they will remain on their expected pace for 95 wins.
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