Sunday, December 23, 2007
Johan and the AL East
Johan Santana continues to be a topic of discussion during the Hot Stove season. Although there are probably other teams in the mix, the most likely scenario sees him going to either Boston or the Yankees, with Boston the probable favorite right now. Long-time lurker and first-time poster plank asked:I'd love to see the standing simulations done with the proposed yankees and red sox trades for Santana. How far ahead would the Sox be with him? Would the Yankees pull ahead with Johan?
Since I take requests, I ran three sets of Diamond Mind Simulations, with three hypothetical scenarios:
Scenario 1
Santana to the Yankees for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. While the Yankees would likely have to include other prospects in the deal, I don't have any idea which prospects they would be so I left that out of the equation.
Scenario 2
Santana to Boston for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie. Same deal with the prospects here.
Scenario 3
Santana to Boston for Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie. Same deal again with the prospects.
First off, let's revisit the CAIRO/Diamond Mind simulations with no trades.
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| Bos08 | 97.0 | 65.0 | 879 | 716 | 50 | 30 |
| NYA08 | 96.1 | 65.9 | 941 | 769 | 45 | 34 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 804 | 741 | 6 | 14 |
| Tam08 | 78.1 | 83.9 | 820 | 848 | 0 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 69.1 | 92.9 | 785 | 912 | 0 | 0 |
So this is our baseline to see what kind of a difference Santana would make, although I think it's a little bullish on the Yankees..
Let's look at scenario 1 first.
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| NYA08 | 97.6 | 64.4 | 942 | 758 | 56 | 28 |
| Bos08 | 96.1 | 65.9 | 869 | 708 | 38 | 44 |
| Tor08 | 86.3 | 75.7 | 802 | 747 | 7 | 12 |
| Tam08 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 824 | 851 | 0 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 69.7 | 92.3 | 786 | 908 | 0 | 0 |
Getting Santana improved the Yankees by 11 runs allowed, and 1.5 wins. It took them from a 45% chance of winning the division to a 56% chance. This doesn't mean that Santana was only worth 11 runs above Phil Hughes, but it does mean this:
a) 220 innings of Santana vs. 160 innings of Phil Hughes plus 60 innings of Kei Igawa = 30 run upgrade.
b) Moving Johnny Damon to CF to replace Melky = -10 runs saved defensively (range plus arm)
c) Moving Hideki Matsui to LF instead of DH = -9 runs saved defensively
d) More AB for Jason Giambi and Brett Gardner, who would probably be the fourth OF if Melky gets traded= no net change in runs scored. Any upgrade from Giambi playing more (although I still restricted his playing time to about 300 PA per season) would be mitigated by more PA from Gardner.
So the Yankees upgrade their pitching by 30 runs and downgrade their defense by 19 runs, an 11 run overall improvement.
For Scenario 2 here's what happened:
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| Bos08 | 99.7 | 62.3 | 883 | 691 | 61 | 22 |
| NYA08 | 95.1 | 66.9 | 936 | 773 | 31 | 44 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 811 | 748 | 7 | 15 |
| Tam08 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 823 | 857 | 1 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 68.8 | 93.3 | 792 | 922 | 0 | 0 |
Santana to Boston for Ellsbury+ improves Boston's pitching by about 25 runs (mainly replacing Wakefield and Lester innings). It changes them from a projected 97 wins to a projected 99.7 wins and improves their odds of winning the AL East to 61%. It's also worth noting that the Yankees got a win worse, ostensibly because they'd face Santana 3-5 times a season.
Lastly, scenario 3:
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| Bos08 | 99.7 | 62.3 | 881 | 684 | 66 | 25 |
| NYA08 | 95.7 | 66.3 | 937 | 775 | 30 | 50 |
| Tor08 | 86.6 | 75.4 | 807 | 747 | 5 | 16 |
| Tam08 | 77.4 | 84.6 | 824 | 857 | 0 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 70.4 | 91.6 | 797 | 911 | 0 | 0 |
In this instance, Boston saved even more runs as they lost more innings by Lester and kept Ellsbury AND Coco Crisp which gave them a better defense when they were able to play the two together. This scenario improves the Red Sox's chances at the AL East to 66%.
So put it all together and what does it mean? Santana makes the Yankees a slightly better team than Boston although the difference is fairly small. If Boston gets Santana in either case, they gain a 3 win advantage on the Yankees. It is worth noting that the Yankees are still the second-most likely favorites to make the playoffs but once they get there they'd be staring at the specter of matching up against Santana and Beckett.
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