Monday, October 6, 2008
Jason Giambi: Should He Stay or Should He Go?
Jason Giambi returned from a brutal 2007 to have a productive 2008, finishing off a 7 year $120 million contract that was signed in the 2000-2001 offseason. Giambi has a $5 million team option which will most likely be bought out, leaving the Yankees with a hole at first base. I’ll be looking at the potential options to fill that hole over the next few weeks, so today I just want to look at whether or not the Yankees should entertain keeping Giambi or not.
I’ve just finished my first set of CAIRO projections for 2009, although there may still be some tweaks that could change some of the projections slightly, but they should be close enough for this kind of analysis. Here’s how Giambi projects for 2009.
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level using linear weights
For those new to CAIRO, it’s a projection system I developed last year which is primarily based off Tango Tiger’s Marcel projections. However, I do include minor league stats, park factors, league adjustments and defensive adjustments for pitchers. I also include a fourth year of data, so a 2009 projection would be based of 2005-2008, using a 7/5/4/2 weight with most recent seasons weighed most heavily.
The % column gives us a possible range of outcomes for Giambi, with 80% being +1 standard deviation and 20% being -1 standard deviation. Generally though, the baseline is the primary projection we want to look at. In Giambi’s case, CAIRO expects him to decline a bit from last year, although still being about two wins above replacement level with the bat.
Since we’re talking about the hole at first base, we have to also remember that Giambi would have to wear a glove too. Here’s how that looks.
GP: Games played
GS: Games started
Inn: Defensive innings at position
CH: Fieldable chances
PM: Plays made
ZR: Zone rating (PM / CH)
Diff: Difference between PM and PM by an average defender over the same # of chances
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Diff times run value of play not made at position)
Giambi’s glove cuts into his value to the tune of around 6 runs over one half of a season.
If Giambi’s being considered as a first baseman, he projects to be about a win and a half above replacement level, assuming he only plays first about half the time and DHs. That’s probably not worth more than $6 million on a one year deal. The $5 million buyout probably shouldn’t be considered as it’s a sunk cost.
I like Giambi, even though he used PEDs. He seems like a great guy, and I know he’s done a lot of charity work and stuff that we don’t get to hear about. But since he did use PEDs, he’s pure concentrated evil in some people’s minds. I also admire the way he came back from the dead twice, in 2005 and in 2008.
That being said, I think the Yankees need to let Giambi go. He’s got some significant holes in his game now and opposing teams can match up against him with hard throwers now which means they can reduce his impact in higher leverage situations. I do think the Yankees can risk offering him arbitration. He’s likely going to be a Type B free agent, which means he’d fetch a sandwich pick if he declines it. Worst case, if he accepts, you have some depth at first base on a one-year deal, even if it’s overpriced.
As for who fills first base if Giambi goes, I’ll look at the possibilities over the next few weeks.
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