Friday, December 28, 2007
Jacoby vs. Melky
Two names prominent in most of the Johan Santana rumors are Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. According to rumors/reports, Ellsbury would be the centerpiece of a potential Red Sox deal for Santana but Melky is just a throw-in.In an earlier thread fgasparini asked:
I'm wondering about Melky vs Ellsbury. I did some tooling around the site but couldn't find Ellsbury #s, though I thought there was a RS CAIRO projection somewhere. Anyway, aren't they kind of the same player, only Ellsbury has more hype because he did well in small sample size last year?
They're not really the same player, but it's reasonable to wonder if their overall value might be similar. Here's a quick look at my MLEs (major league equivalencies) and major league batting lines for the two. Lastly I've also added their CHONE and CAIRO projections for 2008.
| Year | Name | Age | Team | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | BRaA/650 | BRaR/650 |
| 2003 | Cabrera | 18 | STI | 259 | 59 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 5 | .228 | .262 | .274 | 38 | -46 | -29 |
| 2004 | Cabrera | 19 | MID | 151 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 2 | .245 | .278 | .338 | 56 | -28 | -11 |
| 2004 | Cabrera | 19 | TAM | 314 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 14 | 71 | 2 | 1 | .245 | .277 | .366 | 59 | -24 | -8 |
| 2005 | Cabrera | 20 | TRE | 410 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 21 | 71 | 7 | 2 | .246 | .285 | .363 | 61 | -22 | -6 |
| 2005 | Cabrera | 20 | COL | 98 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | .224 | .296 | .316 | 56 | -28 | -11 |
| 2005 | Cabrera | 20 | NYA | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .211 | .211 | .211 | 28 | -56 | -39 |
| 2006 | Cabrera | 21 | COL | 116 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .353 | .397 | .491 | 103 | 20 | 36 |
| 2006 | Cabrera | 21 | NYA | 461 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 50 | 56 | 60 | 12 | 5 | .280 | .356 | .390 | 80 | -3 | 13 |
| 2007 | Cabrera | 22 | NYA | 545 | 149 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 43 | 68 | 13 | 5 | .273 | .322 | .391 | 72 | -11 | 6 |
| CAIRO | 23 | 533 | 147 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 71 | 11 | 4 | .276 | .337 | .392 | 76 | -8 | 9 | ||
| CHONE | 23 | 536 | 149 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 49 | 74 | 15 | 6 | .278 | .342 | .397 | 78 | -5 | 11 |
| Year | Name | Age | Team | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | BRaA/650 | BRaR/650 |
| 2005 | Ellsbury | 21 | LOW | 128 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 14 | 4 | .258 | .329 | .336 | 70 | -14 | 3 |
| 2006 | Ellsbury | 22 | WIL | 230 | 59 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 | 16 | 8 | .257 | .315 | .348 | 63 | -20 | -4 |
| 2006 | Ellsbury | 22 | PRT | 190 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 7 | .279 | .340 | .384 | 73 | -11 | 6 |
| 2007 | Ellsbury | 23 | PRT | 69 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | .420 | .474 | .594 | 145 | 62 | 79 |
| 2007 | Ellsbury | 23 | PAW | 352 | 97 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 25 | 41 | 21 | 6 | .276 | .328 | .352 | 70 | -14 | 3 |
| 2007 | Ellsbury | 23 | BOS | 116 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 0 | .353 | .394 | .509 | 116 | 33 | 49 |
| CAIRO | 24 | 365 | 106 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 28 | 51 | 18 | 6 | .290 | .348 | .411 | 84 | 0 | 17 | ||
| CHONE | 24 | 512 | 153 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 37 | 65 | 36 | 11 | .299 | .353 | .418 | 88 | 4 | 21 |
BR/650: Batting runs per 650 plate appearances using linear weights
BRaA/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above average per 650 plate appearances
BRaA/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement per 650 plate appearances
Ellsbury projects to be about a win better over a full season based on those numbers. He is also faster than Melky so is probably worth a few more runs in non-stolen base baserunning. As far as defense, there's not enough data to assess Ellsbury empirically, although the scouting reports like him. Melky rates well in some metrics and poorly in others and he does have a stronger arm, so they may be roughly comparable overall on defense.
Melky seems to have a bit more raw power since some of Ellsbury's SLG comes from his speed, and Cabrera is about a year younger so he may have bit more room to grow. Conversely, Melky's stockier and may not be able to stay in CF long-term.
I hate to say it but the numbers don't lie here. Ellsbury looks to be significantly better than Melky, in current value and projected value. Add in speed that makes scouts drool and an extra year of pre-arbitration eligibility and it's perfectly understandable why Elllsbury'd be more attractive to the Twins.
Speaking of projections, I've uploaded the latest version of CAIRO (v1.0) here. I don't expect to make any more changes to the formulas I'm using, but I will make changes as players switch teams or if I or anyone else finds any problems.
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