Monday, July 28, 2008
Is the Yankees’ Schedule About to Get Harder?
Way back on May 19, I used Bill James's log 5 method to assess the difficulty of the Yankees upcoming schedule. From May 20 through the All Star Break, the Yankees projected to go around 29-21 over 50 games. They ended up going 30-21 if you include the makeup game with the Mets on June 27 that was not part of my original forecast.That put the Yankees at 50-45 at the All Star Break. The post-ASB schedule featured three straight series against teams that were in contention for a playoff spot. The expectations using log5 for this stretch were pretty modest.
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 18-Jul | Athletics | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 |
| 19-Jul | Athletics | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2 | 0 |
| 20-Jul | Athletics | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 |
| 21-Jul | Twins | 2.4 | 1.6 | 4 | 0 |
| 22-Jul | Twins | 3.1 | 1.9 | 5 | 0 |
| 23-Jul | Twins | 3.7 | 2.3 | 6 | 0 |
| 25-Jul | @Red Sox | 4.1 | 2.9 | 7 | 0 |
| 26-Jul | @Red Sox | 4.6 | 3.4 | 8 | 0 |
| 27-Jul | @Red Sox | 5.0 | 4.0 | 8 | 1 |
| 28-Jul | Orioles | 5.7 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 2 |
Exp W:Expected wins according to log 5
Exp L:Expected losses according to log 5
Act W:Actual win total
Act L:Actual loss total
Despite tonight's 13-4 bloodbath against the Orioles, the Yankees have gone 8-2 instead of going their expected 6-4. So now they sit at 58-46, which is equivalent to around a 90 win pace.
So what's the outlook going forward? Funny you should ask...
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L |
| 29-Jul | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 30-Jul | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 31-Jul | Angels | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1-Aug | Angels | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| 2-Aug | Angels | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| 3-Aug | Angels | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| 4-Aug | @Rangers | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| 5-Aug | @Rangers | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| 6-Aug | @Rangers | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| 7-Aug | @Rangers | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| 8-Aug | @Angels | 6.8 | 5.2 |
| 9-Aug | @Angels | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| 10-Aug | @Angels | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| 11-Aug | @Twins | 8.2 | 6.8 |
| 12-Aug | @Twins | 8.8 | 7.2 |
| 13-Aug | @Twins | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| 15-Aug | Royals | 9.9 | 8.1 |
| 16-Aug | Royals | 10.6 | 8.4 |
| 17-Aug | Royals | 11.3 | 8.7 |
| 19-Aug | @Blue Jays | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| 20-Aug | @Blue Jays | 12.3 | 9.7 |
| 21-Aug | @Blue Jays | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| 22-Aug | @Orioles | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| 23-Aug | @Orioles | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| 24-Aug | @Orioles | 14.6 | 11.4 |
| 26-Aug | Red Sox | 15.1 | 11.9 |
| 27-Aug | Red Sox | 15.7 | 12.3 |
| 28-Aug | Red Sox | 16.2 | 12.8 |
| 29-Aug | Blue Jays | 16.8 | 13.2 |
| 30-Aug | Blue Jays | 17.4 | 13.6 |
| 31-Aug | Blue Jays | 18.0 | 14.0 |
| 2-Sep | @Rays | 18.5 | 14.5 |
| 3-Sep | @Rays | 19.0 | 15.0 |
| 4-Sep | @Rays | 19.5 | 15.5 |
| 5-Sep | @Mariners | 20.1 | 15.9 |
| 6-Sep | @Mariners | 20.7 | 16.3 |
| 7-Sep | @Mariners | 21.3 | 16.7 |
| 8-Sep | @Angels | 21.7 | 17.3 |
| 9-Sep | @Angels | 22.2 | 17.8 |
| 10-Sep | @Angels | 22.6 | 18.4 |
| 12-Sep | Rays | 23.2 | 18.8 |
| 13-Sep | Rays | 23.8 | 19.2 |
| 14-Sep | Rays | 24.3 | 19.7 |
| 15-Sep | White Sox | 24.9 | 20.1 |
| 16-Sep | White Sox | 25.5 | 20.5 |
| 17-Sep | White Sox | 26.1 | 20.9 |
| 18-Sep | White Sox | 26.7 | 21.3 |
| 19-Sep | Orioles | 27.4 | 21.6 |
| 20-Sep | Orioles | 28.1 | 21.9 |
| 21-Sep | Orioles | 28.7 | 22.3 |
| 23-Sep | @Blue Jays | 29.3 | 22.7 |
| 24-Sep | @Blue Jays | 29.8 | 23.2 |
| 25-Sep | @Blue Jays | 30.3 | 23.7 |
| 26-Sep | @Red Sox | 30.7 | 24.3 |
| 27-Sep | @Red Sox | 31.2 | 24.8 |
| 28-Sep | @Red Sox | 31.7 | 25.3 |
I'm using a 50% weight for actual YTD performance and Pythagenpat record, and then 50% for the teams' pre-season projections to calculate the winning percentages to feed into log5. Home teams get a 0.02 boost, road teams get a 0.02 debit. According to these numbers, the Yankee schedule does get a little harder over the next 17 games, with seven games against the infernal Angels. From there it levels out somewhat, and according to log5 overall, the Yankees would end the season at 90-71, which isn't right because I missed a makeup game against Detroit. Log5 says that's basically a split, so we're looking at 90.5-71.5 if things play out how they look on paper. Which they won't, because they never do.
Still, this gives me hope, because I've been hearing and reading quite a bit about how hard the Yankees schedule is over the rest of the year, but the numbers don't really bear that out. The Yankees should be in the playoff hunt for the rest of the season. How rough will that Boston series be at the end of the season if Tampa wins the division and it's a fight for the wild card?
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