Thursday, November 13, 2008
Is Damaso Marte Worth his New Contract?
Here are Marte’s range of 2009 CAIRO projections.
Those RSAR (runs saved above replacement) ignore leverage. If we look at Marte’s Fan Graphs Page we can estimate how much leverage adds to his value. A weighted average of his pLI (average leverage index for all game events) from 2005 to 2008 gives us an average of 1.23. So we can multiply his runs saved by that.
Here’s his three year forecast using a leverage index of 1.23.
A linear runs saved above replacement model shows the Marte contract to be an overpay (assuming $5.5M for a marginal win in 2009, increasing by $500K each year). It’s difficult to save a lot of runs when you are only pitching 50-60 innings in a season. This analysis is limited, especially in the case of someone like Marte the launcher, because he is a tactical option that can be used in very crucial spots, although using the leverage index tries to account for that somewhat. If Marte can shoulder a heavier workload than projected, then his value would also increase.
CAIRO also expects him to get worse over the next few seasons.
Also, by re-signing Marte, the Yankees have lost a chance at picking up a couple of early draft picks for at least the next three years.
I would have preferred just picking up his 2009 option, overpaying him for one season where he projects to be effective, while trying to sort out if someone like Phil Coke could fill the lefty reliever role in 2010. Odds are Marte would have remained a type A free agent in 2010. But, given how often the Yankees have struggled to find a good lefty reliever, and given the going rate for a lefty reliever these days, it’s tough to get too worked up about this deal.
Plus I still remember how he schooled Big Sloppy the first time he faced him as a Yankee.
Page 1 of 1 pages: