Sunday, November 16, 2008
If the 2009 Season Started On November 16, 2008
It’d be pretty damn cold for baseball, but I thought it would be interesting to look at how the Yankees project right now, prior to any free agent signings. So here are the CAIRO projections for the presumed starting nine and for the pitching staff.
BR: Raw batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Runs saved defensively at listed position
WAR: Wins above replacement level
For now the bench is set to replacement level, although that could change. The playing time for the starting nine is probably a little optimistic, but the offseason is the time for optimism, right?
So as presently constituted, the Yankees look like a team that should score around 830 runs next season if they don’t add any more offense. They also look to be about a win below average defensively, which is much better than last season. Brett Gardner’s defensive projection is probably too generous, but that could be countered by Nick Swisher’s 1B defense if the scouting reports are more accurate than his zone rating. Melky Cabrera and Gardner are basically projected to be worth the same in total, so swapping one with the other shouldn’t make a ton of difference on virtual paper.
The offense may very likely not change this offseason, but the pitching will very likely change quite a bit.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level pitcher
WAR: Wins above replacement level
I am trying to be pessimistic with the pitching staff on purpose, so I’m using the players’ projected innings rather than adjusting for 2009 expectations (ie, Joba pitching 117 innings instead of around 140). As a squad, the Yankees look to allow around 760 runs with the pitching staff as currently constituted. Obviously, more innings by Chamberlain, Wang and Hughes could fix that somewhat. The releiver numbers aren’t adjusted for leverage, so that’s another area where they could see a little boost. The current Yankee defense is already included in the pitcher projections, so we don’t need to add the below-average defense projection in.
A team that would score 828 runs and allow 761 would have a PythagenPat winning percentage of .540, which is equivalent to an 88 win team. If you add C.C. Sabathia and his projected 229 innings to the mix, taking away Kei Igawa and reducing Aceves’s and Kennedy’s innings, this is how the staff would look.
With the same offense, that’s a 93 win PythagenPat team, although given the strength of the AL East, we would probably want to knock that down by a few wins.
We can play the ‘what if they sign _____?’ game now, so if you’d like to get a feel for how much adding certain players would be worth, ask in the comments.
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