Tuesday, December 29, 2009
How Susceptible Might the Yankees be to LHP in 2010?
I was thinking about the Yankees going into 2010 with the team they have now and how big of a hole LF might be. A Brett Gardner/Jamie Hoffmann platoon is not particularly impressive, but how bad might it be? The other concern is if Curtis Granderson's platoon splits in CF vs. LHP makes the Yankees particularly poor in matchups with LHP.So here's a quick look at two Yankee lineups, one vs. RHP and one vs. LHP. I'm using platoon splits based on what a player's done to this point in his career, but regressed towards the mean platoon split for same-handed batters using 2000 PAs. So in the case of Granderson, his projected 2010 platoon splits would be based on 685 PAs of his career platoon splits combined with 2000 PAs of the average LHB's platoon splits.
Vs. RHP
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | vs RHP |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | ss | 5 | .341 |
| 2 | Nick Johnson | dh | 5 | .377 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1b | 5 | .390 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 5 | .386 |
| 5 | Curtis Granderson | cf | 5 | .376 |
| 6 | Jorge Posada | c | 5 | .348 |
| 7 | Robinson Cano | 2b | 4 | .373 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | rf | 4 | .347 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | lf | 4 | .340 |
| 42 | .365 |
Vs. LHP
| Ord | Player | Pos | PA | vs LHP |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | ss | 5 | .375 |
| 2 | Nick Johnson | dh | 5 | .377 |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira | 1b | 5 | .390 |
| 4 | Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 5 | .424 |
| 5 | Jorge Posada | c | 5 | .358 |
| 6 | Robinson Cano | 2b | 5 | .341 |
| 7 | Nick Swisher | rf | 4 | .357 |
| 8 | Curtis Granderson | cf | 4 | .294 |
| 9 | Jamie Hoffmann | lf | 4 | .324 |
| 42 | .362 |
vs. RHP: CAIRO projected wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers
vs. LHP: CAIRO projected wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers
I'm using 42 PAs to equal roughly one game. I'm assuming a Brett Gardner/Jamie Hoffmann platoon in LF, and am adjusting the batting order to move Granderson down vs. LHP. While the Yankees could conceivably put Granderson in LF, it doesn't project to save more than five runs over the course of the season and may not be worth the hassle of shifting Granderson around between LF and CF.
As far as what these two lineups tell us, three points of wOBA over a full season (around 6400 PAs) translates to around 14 runs. While Granderson falls off significantly vs. lefties, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher all have hit better vs. them. Nick Johnson's actually hit lefties better than righties in his career so when he gets regressed he ends up with a roughly even split.
For all the consternation about going into the season with a TSBG/Hoffmann platoon in LF, once we factor in baserunning and defense it's really not a bad thing. If we assume that TSBG will get 450 PAs and Hoffmann 225, that's a collective wOBA of around .334, which is a run or so better than a league average hitter. I've got a league average LF projected to have around a .338 wOBA, which makes a 675 PA TSBG/Hoffmann platoon about three runs below average with the bat. Add their projected 44 SB/11 CS to that and you get another 5.5 runs of offensive value. That makes them essentially league average, or 2.0 wins above replacement. Add in defense and they could potentially be 3 or 3.5 WAR.
If the Yankees sign someone like Reed Johnson to spell Granderson in CF from time to time versus lefties, the gap between the two lineups shrinks a bit more.
One concern that this analysis doesn't account for would be the ability for an opponent to match up against Granderson in high leverage situations, but I'm not sure how much of an impact that is over the course of a season. You'd need to have Granderson as possibly one of the last hopes, batting in the later innings of a game with men on base and the Yankees trailing against a team that has a competent left-handed reliever for that to manifest itself. That can and will certainly happen in 2010. But how often will it happen?
Anyway, getting back to the topic of the Yankees susceptiblity against LHP, I don't think it's a problem. And no, I don't think the Yankees "need" to add a LF, either. If they can get a righty hitter who can play capable defense, it'd be a good move, but I don't think it's critical.
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