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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

How Good Are the 2009 ALDS Version of the Yankees On a Spreadsheet?

Since this is a Yankee site, it's probably time to run the Yankees through the same numbers that I ran the Tigers and Twins through.

The idea here is that using just 2009 data and stats for the entire team doesn't really do a good job of telling how good a team as currently constituted really is. Does it matter that Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Chien-Ming Wang and Anthony Claggett combined to be be 51 runs worse than replacement level when trying to assess how good the Yankees are right now? Obviously not, just like it doesn't matter how awful John Smoltz and Brad Penny where when assessing how good the Red Sox are. The same holds for every other team in the postseason. This is why using Pythagorean record or actual winning percentage doesn't really give us that much useful information.

So let's look at the Yankees' postseason roster and their projections and try to figure out how good they really are right now. First up, the position players.

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
derek jeter	ss	23	.314	.382	.440	.364	.384	.020	3	14	-3
johnny damon	lf	22	.282	.357	.453	.354	.369	.015	3	14	0
mark teixeira	1b	22	.292	.386	.542	.397	.402	.005	4	14	4
alex rodriguez	3b	21	.293	.399	.546	.405	.402	-.003	4	13	-4
hideki matsui	dh	21	.279	.363	.474	.363	.375	.012	3	13	0
jorge posada	c	16	.288	.378	.485	.376	.377	.002	2	10	-6
robinson cano	2b	19	.305	.339	.485	.354	.372	.018	3	13	-1
nick swisher	rf	19	.243	.359	.461	.357	.373	.016	3	12	2
melky cabrera	cf	10	.270	.328	.394	.318	.328	.010	1	7	0
brett gardner	cf	10	.257	.338	.342	.310	.318	.008	1	7	13
eric hinske	rf	4	.238	.330	.449	.339	.347	.008	1	3	-1
jose molina	c	6	.226	.270	.319	.261	.259	-.001	0	4	1
jerry hairston	ss	2	.266	.317	.404	.314	.302	-.012	0	1	-3
ramiro pena	ss	1	.240	.287	.304	.267	.306	.039	0	1	5
total		196	.285	.366	.476				29	125	0

PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.

As you can see from these numbers, just about every Yankee player had better numbers in '09 than they'd be projected to have going forward. That may seem harsh, but it doesn't change the fact that this is a very good team, probably the best team in the postseason right now.

Derek Jeter had an outstanding 2009. Unfortunately, he didn't have an outstanding 2008 and we can't ignore that. Still, he's probably the best leadoff hitter on any of the playoff teams, although you can possibly make a case for Chone Figgins if you squint a little. Jeter even played passable defense this year, and at this point the defensive metrics project him to be just a touch below average. Of course, these metrics were infallible when they showed Jeter at -20, but now that they show him as decent we need to ensure we are aware of their limitations.

Johnny Damon also had a very good 2009, although he hit .215/.319/.278 over his last 92 PAs. A free agent in 2010, Damon's probably auditioning for his next contract, and a good postseason probably earns him a few extra million. His glove and arm in LF have left something to be desired this year, although his projected range is about average. The arm though...

Mark Teixeira had a great year, although he's not really a worth MVP candidate. He's a switch-hitter who has generally had a higher OBP versus lefties and a little more power against righties (.282/.373/.579 career vs. righties and .305/.400/.511 vs. lefties). Despite what 2009 UZR says, Teixeira's glove projects as a slight positive once you factor in past performance.

Until he actually does well in the postseason, the spotlight is going to be on Alex Rodriguez. We know he has the ability to carry the team if he gets hot, and we also know we're going to keep reading about if if he doesn't do well.

Hideki Matsui may be nearing the end of his Yankee career. If so, he had a fine last season and could really punctuate it with a good postseason. Matsui has hit .302/.372/.506 in five postseasons with the Yanks, although he's had a couple of clunkers in there as well.

I guess this is where I'm supposed to flip out about Jose Molina being penciled in to catch A.J. Burnett since it will take Jorge Posada's bat out of the lineup. The thing is, I can't seem to really get that worked up about it. I wouldn't try to deny that there's something to a pitcher-catcher relationship that we can't quantify, and I'd also imagine that Molina would only bat 2-3 times in a game anyway. If you end up with Molina batting in a high-leverage situation after the fifth inning, is there any doubt that he'll be pinch-hit for? Anyway, this paragraph is supposed to be about Jorge Posada. I've adjusted the playing time in the table to assume Molina starts twice. Posada's generally had poor postseasons in his career, but I'm sure fatigue was an issue. He got plenty of rest this year, so despite his advanced age I think he's primed for a good postseason. Maybe the Molina thing will give him an extra kick in the ass too...

Robinson Cano rebounded from a dismal 2008 to have a nice offensive year, although his performance with runners on base was pretty bad. Whether that's due to a change in approach or just due to the vagaries of a selected set of PAs, we don't know. Cano seemed to have a good defensive year, so I'm having trouble reconciling the fact that zone rating and UZR saw him as a touch below average.

Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera round out the probable starters in RF and CF respectively, then you have the bench of Brett Gardner, Eric Hinske, the aforementioned Molina, Jerry Hairston and probably Freddy Guzman. I gave Gardner 10 PAs but he probably won't start if Girardi wants to keep him as a tactical option for baserunning and as a defensive replacement, but no matter how you allocate the playing time between Gardner and Melky the difference is probably negligible over five games.

The Yankee offense is probably the best one in the postseason once you adjust for park and league. The defense looks around average too, which is very unusual for the Yankees.

So, the pitching...

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
cc sabathia	SP1	229	213	20	63	198	3.84	3.44	3.42	3.37	3.38	12	5.1
a.j. burnett	SP2	197	186	22	71	185	4.42	4.06	3.84	4.04	4.29	12	5.9
andy pettitte	SP3	205	219	21	68	149	4.82	4.35	4.05	4.16	4.19	6	3.2
mariano rivera	CL	71	55	5	12	69	2.32	2.18	2.72	1.76	2.94	3	0.8
phil hughes	SU	99	95	10	33	86	4.34	4.08	3.70	3.03	3.15	3	1.4
david robertson	SU	68	60	5	22	69	3.70	3.43	3.05	3.30	3.09	3	1.2
alfredo aceves	MR	140	120	13	22	98	3.91	3.63	3.46	3.54	3.68	2	0.9
joba chamberlain	MR	131	114	10	54	146	3.52	3.18	3.16	4.75	4.69	2	0.8
damaso marte	MR	43	39	4	19	41	5.02	4.68	3.97	9.47	5.53	1	0.6
phil coke	MR	61	63	6	15	46	4.73	4.41	3.62	4.50	4.73	1	0.5
chad gaudin	MR	102	104	13	42	79	4.82	4.45	4.54	3.43	5.18	0	0.0
mark melancon	LR	62	62	8	8	37	5.11	4.70	3.95	3.87	3.81	0	0.0
Total		45	42	4	14	40	4.08	3.73	3.57				20.4

The assumptions here are that C.C. and A.J. get two starts each, and that Joba Chamberlain is in the bullpen.

The only starting pitcher in the postseason with a better projection than Sabathia is Chris Carpenter, although you can probably make a case that Jon Lester's projection contains data that isn't very relevant to him anymore from when he was fighting cancer. Critics point to the fact that Sabathia has had a bad postseason track record (in a whopping five starts), but I generally weigh 288 starts of good to great quality more than five starts. THat's just me though.

A.J. Burnett is the wild card for the Yankees. He could pitch a gem or he could be torched in any start against any opponent. Let's hope for gems.

Andy Pettitte had a very solid season in 2009 and slots in comfortably in the #3 slot. I thought that pitching him in game 3 on turf was a bad idea, but looking at his three year splits he's actually been better on turf.

As far as the pen. You've got Mo, who continues to excel even though he's lost a tick off his velocity. Phil Hughes was the most effective setup reliever in the American League. David Robertson brings the stuff to get a big strikeout when needed, Alfredo Aceves can come in and give you 3-4 innings if you need it. I have no idea what Joba will do, but we all know about his ability. Note that Hughes and Chamberlain's projections are as relievers. Phil Coke and Damaso Marte give the Yankees a couple of lefties with decent stuff to matchup with, which will be important against Mauer, Kubel and Span. Both are not without flaws though. I threw Chad Gaudin's projection up but didn't give him any innings. He could be very useful out of the pen, especially if spotted against righties.

The Yankee staff has the second best projected strikeout rate of any of the teams in the postseason, just a hair behind Boston (7.96 to 8.05). They have the third best projected walk rate and third best projected HR rate (just look at the Twins post for all the rankings).

So what does all this tell us?

#games	5
home games	3
#outs	125
offense	28.6
pitching	20.4
defense	0.0
wpct	.660
162 gm equiv	107-55

Standard disclaimer about the inherent limitations of projections goes here. Player talent can change in ways that objective projection systems won't pick up on, so nothing here is absolute.

The ALDS version of the Yankees looks like a team that would win close to 2/3 of their games. So running the Twins vs. Yankees 10,000 times on my Monte Carlo playoff simulator, I get these ALDS odds:

Yankees: 79.5%
Twins: 20.5%

The Twins can beat the Yankees, and they might. But the odds are pretty long against it.

Update: Yankees.com has the ALDS roster up.