Friday, November 21, 2008
Free Agents Ranked by CAIRO Wins above Replacement
Here’s a list of 2009 position player free agents sorted by wins above replacement. All projections are for a neutral league (2% better than the NL, 2% worse than the AL) and park. Some of these players may have player or team options so they may not actually be free agents.
BRAR are batting runs above replacement (position-adjusted), RS are projected runs saved compared to average according to zone rating. Both numbers are based on projected playing time, not pro-rated to a full season. TR are total runs above replacement (BRAR + RS). WAR are wins above replacement (TR / 10). I haven’t adjusted Manny Ramirez’s defensive projection for the Green Monster penalty in zone rating, so you may want to add in some more runs, somewhere in the area of 5 or so I’d estimate.
And here’s a list of pitchers also sorted by wins above replacement. Same deal, projections are for a neutral league, park and average defense.
RSAR are runs saved above replacement. Starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers. Reliever numbers do not include leverage. WAR are the same as with hitters, RSAR / 10.
As an aside, the only pitcher who CAIRO projects better than Sabathia in 2009 is Roy Halladay.
If you’re looking to value these guys, a rough rule of thumb is $5M to $6M for each WAR. You should also factor in aging (anywhere from a .3 to .5 decline in WAR each season depending on their age and position).
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