Monday, October 27, 2008
Fifty Ways To Upgrade the Yankee offense
There’s been a few questions in some of the last few posts about different combinations the Yankees could pursue to improve their offense, so I’m going to run through a few of them.
There’s a crapload of stuff that the Yankees can try, but I’m just going to run through a few of them. For now I’m giving all the starters 600 plate appearances and the bench 1004 replacement level PAs. In actuality we should expect the bench to get more playing time, but for the purposes of comparison this is more straightforward. The projections I’m using are the current version of my 2009 CAIRO projections, which may change slightly.
First, let’s look at a control group. Here, the Yankees return all their projected starters from last year with a healthy Posada and Xavier Nady on the bench.
Combination 1
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average)
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level player at same position
RS: Runs saved above average on defense
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS divided by 10)
Returning a healthy Posada makes a pretty big difference. This version of the Yankees would score 849 runs if they could stay relatively healthy, which is not very likely. It’s also not very likely that the Yankees are going to bring back both Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. As you can see, this group gives back a non-trivial amount of their value on defense, but collectively they would be worth around 16 wins above replacement level team.
Combination 2
For this combination, I’m punting defense to get the best bats in the lineup. That means Melky on the bench, Nady in LF and Damon in CF. Nady’s LF numbers are not very good which is why he shows as a -9 but it’s a very small sample size, and he’s been close to average in RF so there’s a chance he’d be a little better than -9 if he was a full-time LF. Still, this group would score 19 more runs but allow 19 more runs on defense, which is basically a wash.
Combination 3
Now we start getting into slightly more realistic scenarios. Here, Abreu walks but the Yankees keep Giambi. Melky gets back in the lineup with Nady in RF. This group is a little less than a win better than combinations 1 and 2, thanks to the defensive upgrade of Damon in LF and Melky in CF.
Combination 4
Same lineup as above, but swapping Brett Gardner for Melky. Gardner’s defensive projection is probably a little generous, but this combination makes the Yankees a better defensive team than any of the other previous combinations. The projected offensive difference between Gardner and Melky is only 4 runs thanks to Gardner’s expected stolen bases. If he’s really 6 runs better defensively then he’s the better player than Melky.
Combination 5
Keeping Giambi is probably not going to happen, so here’s what happens if we stick Juan Miranda in there as the full-time 1B. He projects as right around replacement level, although if he’s platooned with someone like Nady he could be better than that. I went with Gardner in CF again, but if you want to figure Melky instead add 4 offensive runs and subtract 6 defensive runs.
Combination 6
Now we’re cooking. Adding Mark Teixeira at first boosts the offense to 860 runs and improves the defense to just about average. All other combinations hovered in the 15-16 win above replacement range, Teixeira makes them 19 wins above replacement.
Combination 7
There’s a very good chance the Yankees won’t be able to get Teixeira, so what about someone like Pat Burrell? Burrell in LF, Damon in CF, and Nady in RF leads to a pretty good offense, almost as good as the Teixeira offense, but 20 runs worse defensively.
Combination 8
Adding Adam Dunn instead of Burrell doesn’t really change anything from combination 7.
Combination 9
Even though it makes my stomach churn, here’s what it would look like if the Yankees added Manny Ramirez. I adjusted Ramirez’s defense for the Green Monster penalty from -21 to -11, but that may be overly generous. Manny’s Dodger tenure makes his 2009 projection really good, but I still don’t want him.
I still think combination 6 (Teixeira at first, Damon in LF, Gardner/Melky in CF) is the best one for the 2009 Yankees, because it balances offense and defense.
There are a lot more combinations that I’m probably missing, so if you want to see some other ones ask in the comments.
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