Sunday, June 15, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 15 Happy Father’s Day Edition
On May 19th, I took a look at the Yankees' schedule through the All Star Break. It appeared, at least on paper, that the Yankees were entering a fairly soft part of their schedule. Here's how they've done since then, comparing their expected W/L record using Bill James's log 5 method for calculating expected winning percentage and their actual performance.| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.6 | 2.4 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.2 | 2.8 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.8 | 3.2 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.3 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.9 | 4.1 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.4 | 4.6 | 8 | 4 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 8.0 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.6 | 5.4 | 8 | 6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.2 | 5.8 | 9 | 6 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.8 | 6.2 | 10 | 6 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 10.4 | 6.6 | 10 | 7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 11.1 | 6.9 | 11 | 7 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 11.8 | 7.2 | 12 | 7 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 12.4 | 7.6 | 12 | 8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.9 | 8.1 | 13 | 8 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 13.2 | 8.8 | 13 | 9 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 13.7 | 9.3 | 14 | 9 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 14.3 | 9.7 | 15 | 9 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 14.8 | 10.2 | 16 | 9 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 15.4 | 10.6 | 17 | 9 |
So the Yankees have played a little less than two wins better than expected over the last 26 games. They've picked up 1.5 games in the division, and have scored 148 runs while allowing 118. So that's 5.7 runs scored per game and 4.5 runs allowed per game, equivalent to 922 runs scored and 735 runs allowed over a full season.
It's also a Pythagenpat winning percentage of 60.7%, which is equivalent to 16 wins over 26 games and 98 wins over 162 games.
Today's blowout 13-0 victory over Houston also gives them a positive run differential for the first time since May 10.
That's the good news. The bad news is that because of the ridiculous farce that is inter-league play, Chien-Ming Wang injured his foot doing something he shouldn't have been doing. Right now it's being called a sprained foot. Wang will have tests on his foot when the team returns to New York. Let's hope it's not too serious, as Wang appears to have recovered from a rough stretch to throw 12.1 innings of one run ball over his last two starts.
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