Sunday, June 1, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 1
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 3.9 | 2.1 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.1 | 2.9 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.7 | 3.3 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.2 | 3.8 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.8 | 4.2 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.3 | 4.7 | 8 | 4 |
Exp W: Expected wins using log5
Exp L: Expected losses using log5
Act W: Actual wins
Act L: Actual losses
Despite falling to the Twins earlier today, 5-1, the Yankees have so far been able to exceed their expected record through what on paper looks like an easy part of their schedule by a little less than a win.
On a completely unrelated note, rilkefan asked if I could plot the distribution of RA-ERA to see if Mike Mussina gives up a larger percentage of unearned runs than the typical pitcher. That's certainly been true this year, with Moose's respectable 4.26 ERA masking 9 unearned runs and an RA of 5.58.
Here's a graph with three sets of data. The blue line is Mussina's RA - ERA for every season of his career. The red line is the AL average for the same numbers. Lastly, the yellow line is for just Moose's teams, to account for the quality (or lack thereof) of the defense behind him in each season.
On average, Mussina's RA - ERA is 0.31, with a standard deviation of 0.28. The league average over that same stretch (1991-2008) is 0.41 with a standard deviation of 0.03. For his teams, the average RA - ERA has been 0.33 with a standard deviation of 0.08. So Moose has actually given up slightly fewer unearned runs than his teammates, but there is a fair amount of volatility in his season to season performance.
Update: yfinBrazil caught something I missed from rilkefan's original question, which is that we should divide RA-ERA by RA to account for the fact that Mussina has typically prevented runs of all kinds better than most other pitchers. Here's how that chart looks.
The numbers here show that on average, Mussina has allowed about 7% more runs than earned runs with a standard deviation of 0.05. The AL over that same stretch has allowed a very consistent 8% more runs than earned runs. Mussina's teams are at 7% as well, with a lower standard deviation (0.02).
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