Thursday, January 31, 2008
Diamond Mind and CAIRO post-Santana trade
I've gotten a few requests for this, so here are the CAIRO/Diamond Mind simulations with Santana traded to the Metsies.| AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Bos08 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 881 | 695 | 54.8 | 32.5 | 92 - 104 | 839 - 923 | 659 - 730 |
| NYA08 | 96.5 | 65.6 | 940 | 770 | 35.8 | 42.0 | 90 - 103 | 893 - 988 | 726 - 814 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 775 | 710 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 80 - 94 | 736 - 814 | 673 - 748 |
| Tam08 | 76.9 | 85.1 | 806 | 853 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 71 - 83 | 769 - 843 | 815 - 891 |
| Bal08 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 768 | 908 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63 - 75 | 730 - 807 | 865 - 950 |
| AL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Det08 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 905 | 784 | 55.0 | 3.5 | 85 - 97 | 859 - 952 | 745 - 824 |
| Cle08 | 89.4 | 72.6 | 828 | 719 | 43.0 | 6.0 | 84 - 95 | 790 - 867 | 682 - 756 |
| KC08 | 75.1 | 86.9 | 768 | 847 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 69 - 81 | 729 - 807 | 809 - 885 |
| ChA08 | 73.9 | 88.1 | 779 | 850 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 68 - 80 | 743 - 814 | 809 - 890 |
| Min08 | 72.0 | 90.1 | 699 | 794 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 66 - 78 | 660 - 738 | 756 - 832 |
| AL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| LAA08 | 89.3 | 72.7 | 801 | 712 | 83.5 | 1.0 | 83 - 95 | 758 - 845 | 675 - 748 |
| Sea08 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 721 | 778 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 72 - 85 | 682 - 761 | 736 - 821 |
| Tex08 | 74.6 | 87.4 | 821 | 904 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 68 - 81 | 781 - 860 | 861 - 947 |
| Oak08 | 73.2 | 88.8 | 739 | 813 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 68 - 79 | 703 - 775 | 769 - 858 |
| NL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| NYN08 | 94.7 | 67.4 | 827 | 696 | 80.5 | 7.3 | 89 - 101 | 785 - 869 | 660 - 733 |
| Phi08 | 84.4 | 77.6 | 864 | 813 | 10.5 | 17.0 | 78 - 90 | 823 - 905 | 770 - 855 |
| Atl08 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 780 | 764 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 77 - 89 | 737 - 823 | 729 - 800 |
| Was08 | 73.8 | 88.2 | 774 | 856 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68 - 80 | 737 - 811 | 819 - 894 |
| Flo08 | 66.3 | 95.7 | 734 | 894 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61 - 72 | 699 - 769 | 851 - 936 |
| NL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| ChN08 | 89.2 | 72.8 | 804 | 718 | 61.5 | 6.3 | 83 - 95 | 764 - 844 | 677 - 759 |
| Mil08 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 810 | 755 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 79 - 92 | 774 - 846 | 717 - 793 |
| Cin08 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 771 | 806 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 72 - 85 | 732 - 811 | 762 - 850 |
| Hou08 | 77.6 | 84.4 | 770 | 795 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 72 - 84 | 732 - 809 | 759 - 830 |
| StL08 | 77.2 | 84.8 | 763 | 801 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 71 - 83 | 724 - 802 | 766 - 837 |
| Pit08 | 68.2 | 93.9 | 692 | 838 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 62 - 74 | 660 - 725 | 799 - 876 |
| NL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Col08 | 85.2 | 76.8 | 832 | 788 | 28.5 | 6.3 | 79 - 92 | 789 - 875 | 752 - 823 |
| Ari08 | 85.1 | 76.9 | 748 | 710 | 21.5 | 13.0 | 79 - 91 | 712 - 784 | 670 - 749 |
| LAN08 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 770 | 750 | 23.5 | 7.8 | 80 - 90 | 734 - 805 | 713 - 787 |
| SD08 | 83.2 | 78.8 | 748 | 697 | 26.5 | 5.5 | 77 - 90 | 707 - 788 | 660 - 735 |
| SF08 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 686 | 789 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62 - 76 | 649 - 723 | 745 - 834 |
It's about 4-5 win upgrade for the Mets, which is huge. It doesn't impact the AL all that much aside from making Minnesota worse, which benefits the AL Central second place team in their pursuit of the wild card.
I know there are some fans that are disappointed that the Yankees didn't give up a package of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and "a top prospect." Don't count me among them. Santana would have cost the Yankees at least $20 million a year plus another $5 million or so in luxury tax, for what would have been a 2008 regular season upgrade of maybe a win or two, most likely followed by diminishing returns over over the remainder of Johan's extension. We don't know who the "top prospect" would have been. As the simulations show, the Yankees are still a very good team. Not as good as Boston, but being better than Boston didn't help them from 2001-2006.
I'll continue the top twenty position player seasons tomorrow with LF.
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