Sunday, May 11, 2008
Darrell Rasner: Great Pitcher or Greatest Pitcher?
The Yankees beat Detroit 5-2 yesterday thanks to a second strong start by Darrell Rasner. Rasner is likely pitching over his head right now, but we can use his projections coming into 2008 and his 2008 actual performance to date to see what we should expect from Rasner going forward.
Here are a few sets of numbers. The first is the average projection for Rasner using the projections I used in the looking ahead to 2008 entries.
2008 Average Projection
IP: 63
H: 73
ER: 35
HR: 8
BB: 19
K: 34
ERA: 5.01
The next thing we need to look at is his 2008 minor league performance translated to its major league equivalency.
2008 MLE
IP: 29
H: 26
ER: 7
HR: 1
BB:5
K: 19
ERA: 5.01 2.17
Here’s how he’s done in his two starts in the majors.
2008 MLB Actuals
IP: 12
H: 9
ER: 4
HR: 2
BB:1
K: 5
ERA: 3.00
Lastly, here’s Rasner’s 2008 MLE and MLB performance combined.
2008 Totals
IP: 41
H: 35
ER: 11
HR: 3
BB:6
K: 24
ERA: 2.41
For my CAIRO projections I used a weight of 6/4/3/2 for the past four seasons. So I would weigh his 2008 performance times 6 and his projection would be weighed at 4+3+2 = 9. We then have to factor in the innings so we don’t weigh his 2008 more than it should be weighed. Rasner’s projected innings are low because of his injury last season, so we still face the issue of overweighing 2008. Because of that I’m gong to pro-rate his projection to 150 innings.
So, here’s what that looks like.
2008 Projection: 9 x 150 = 1350
2008 Actual: 6 x 41 = 246
Divide 246 by 1350 + 246 and you get a weight of 0.15 for 2008 actual performance and 0.85 for his projection. Here’s what that gives us for Rasner going forward.
2008 Revised Projection
IP: 150
H: 169
ER: 80
HR: 18
BB: 43
K: 82
ERA: 4.77
So if we still work off the assumption of Rasner pitching a total of 150 innings (including his minor league time) here’s what his final season MLB line would look like when you add 109 innings of his revised projection to his 12 actual innings in MLB.
IP: 121
H: 132
ER: 62
HR: 15
BB: 32
K: 65
ERA: 4.60
I’d take that line from a fourth starter.
Projecting pitchers is always tricky because their talent level can change constantly in good or bad ways. Rasner added a cutter this year which some are crediting for his success. If that is indeed true then his 2008 projection may understate his talent level. I guess we’ll find out in due time.
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