Wednesday, April 8, 2009
C.C. Sabathia’s Revised CAIRO Projection for 2009
Since so many enlightened people have made the point that C.C. Sabathia's first game is a good indication of his skill level, I've reworked his CAIRO projection for 2009, and here it is.| Player | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | CERA | tERA | RSAA | RSAR | Value |
| CC Sabathia | 140 | 259 | 194 | 194 | 0 | 162 | 0 | 12.46 | 6.66 | 7.20 | 6.63 | -124.2 | -110.2 | -$49,572,000 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching CERA: Component ERA (31 times OBP times SLG)
tERA: tRA scaled to ERA instead of RA (tRA times 0.92)
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
Value: RSAR divided by 10 to get wins above replacement, then multiplied by $4.5M to get value in terms of marginal wins
Love the HR rate. The K rate, not so much.
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