Sunday, November 18, 2007
CAIRO vs. CHONE - 2008 Yankees edition
While we all wait breathlessly for Mariano Rivera to sign his contract, I noticed that Sean Smith posted his CHONE hitter projections over at his blog. I'm still messing around with my own CAIRO projections so I thought it'd be a good exercise for me to compare what the two say for the Yankees since it now appears the offense is basically set for 2008.And here's what that looks like:
| CAIRO | CHONE | |||||||||||
| Starters | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | ||
| Johnny Damon | LF | 600 | .286 | .357 | .438 | 83 | .275 | .351 | .413 | 78 | ||
| Derek Jeter | SS | 600 | .318 | .388 | .463 | 92 | .299 | .373 | .433 | 84 | ||
| Bobby Abreu | RF | 600 | .284 | .392 | .461 | 94 | .268 | .375 | .422 | 84 | ||
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 600 | .300 | .402 | .569 | 112 | .303 | .420 | .588 | 117 | ||
| Hideki Matsui | DH | 600 | .291 | .370 | .489 | 92 | .282 | .365 | .473 | 88 | ||
| Jorge Posada | C | 600 | .293 | .392 | .499 | 98 | .285 | .389 | .475 | 93 | ||
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 600 | .312 | .347 | .489 | 87 | .305 | .347 | .479 | 86 | ||
| Wilson Betemit | 1B | 400 | .265 | .338 | .443 | 52 | .254 | .329 | .438 | 51 | ||
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 600 | .281 | .341 | .403 | 72 | .278 | .342 | .397 | 72 | ||
| Starters Total | 5200 | .293 | .371 | .474 | 783 | .284 | .367 | .457 | 754 | |||
| Bench | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | ||
| Jason Giambi | DH | 350 | .256 | .399 | .499 | 57 | .246 | .392 | .474 | 55 | ||
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | 325 | .257 | .322 | .480 | 44 | .235 | .301 | .452 | 40 | ||
| Jose Molina | C | 225 | .250 | .287 | .375 | 22 | .241 | .281 | .360 | 20 | ||
| Alberto Gonzalez | SS | 175 | .250 | .300 | .351 | 16 | .247 | .295 | .335 | 15 | ||
| Bronson Sardinha | RF | 150 | .230 | .293 | .376 | 15 | .240 | .305 | .388 | 16 | ||
| Brett Gardner | CF | 100 | .262 | .333 | .357 | 11 | .253 | .320 | .328 | 10 | ||
| Bench Total | 1325 | .251 | .331 | .427 | 166 | .243 | .323 | .408 | 157 | |||
| AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | |||||
| Team Total | 6525 | .284 | .363 | .464 | 949 | .276 | .358 | .447 | 911 |
BR is batting runs using linear weights. I used the same amount of projected playing time for every single player and assumed 6525 plate appearances (last year's team had about 6550). I also factored in about 20% bench playing time.
What this data shows is that CAIRO is a lot more optimistic than CHONE, to the tune of a 38 run overall difference. My guess is that Sean is using a harsher aging factor than I am or regressing more towards the mean, or perhaps a combination of the two. The difference isn't huge on a player by player basis, but it's fairly significant overall.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS for the Yankees are up too but since he doesn't have them in a spreadsheet yet I didn't look at how CAIRO compares yet. I'd guess ZiPS will be harsher than CHONE, but I feel pretty comfortable that the Yankees will score 900+ runs next season.
I've also updated the RLYW Lineup Toy with the CHONE projection data.
My posting may be sporadic over the next week or so as I'm heading on vacation but hopefully someone will fill in.
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