Saturday, January 16, 2010
CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16
Obviously it's way too early to make much of these, but here's how I have the AL East projected with CAIRO given current rosters and my estimated playing times.| Team | W | L | RS | RA | Div% | WC% | PL% |
| Yankees | 100.3 | 61.7 | 864 | 664 | 66.4% | 24.5% | 90.9% |
| Red Sox | 94.9 | 67.1 | 861 | 700 | 26.1% | 44.8% | 70.9% |
| Rays | 89.3 | 72.7 | 804 | 706 | 7.4% | 21.9% | 29.3% |
| Blue Jays | 70.1 | 91.9 | 696 | 761 | - | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Orioles | 70.4 | 91.6 | 778 | 854 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
W: Average projected win total
L: Average projected loss total
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
Div%: Percentage of times team won division
WC%: Percentage of times team won wild card
PL%: Percentage of times team made the playoffs (Div% + WC%)
Although it looks like Boston's offense is on par with the Yankees superficially, it's not once you consider the park factors. The Yankees are probably about forty runs better than Boston offensively in a neutral park right now, although the converse applies to the pitching staffs.
Interestingly enough, for all the talk about Boston's great defense, they're not even the best defense in the division, with Tampa Bay projecting close to 20 runs better than Boston.
Anyway, expect lots to change before we can really have useful projected standings, so please don't take these too seriously.
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