Saturday, June 27, 2009
Brett Gardner: Better Than League Average?
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR | BRAR/650 |
| Brett Gardner | NYA | AL | CF | 176 | 152 | 28 | 46 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 16 | .303 | .374 | .441 | 26 | 97 | 9 | 34 |
| Average | AL | CF | 176 | 156 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 7 | .261 | .329 | .407 | 21 | 79 | 4 | 16 | |
| Replacement | AL | CF | 176 | 161 | 20 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 6 | .228 | .293 | .356 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
BR: Batting runs as calculated by linear weights
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: Postion-adjusted batting runs above replacement
BRAR/650: BRAR pro-rated to 650 PA
In the interest of full disclosure, Gardner's performance over 170 PAs is still within range of his less than impressive projections entering 2009.
| Player | -2 SD | -1 SD | wOBA | +1 SD | +2 SD |
| Brett Gardner | .208 | .274 | .340 | .405 | .471 |
| Average | .176 | .243 | .310 | .377 | .444 |
| Replacement | .142 | .210 | .278 | .347 | .415 |
wOBA does not factor in baserunning. Gardner's 16 steals and 2 times caught are equal to around three runs.
Most encouraging to me is that Gardner's strikeout rate is much lower than projected. Gardner was projected to strike out in about 20% of his PAs based on his MLEs. He's striking out 12% of the time. He was projected to walk in about 10.5% of his PAs, and he's walking in 9.7% of them, so his BB rate hasn't suffered all that much from any change in approach he may have made to cut down on his Ks.
Like most statheads, I harp on sample size. 170 PAs are not enough to definitively say Gardner's going to be a starting caliber MLB CF. Still, part of the concerns about Gardner's game translating to the majors were based on his supposed physical limitations, particularly in the area of power, and his high strikeout rate. So far this season, we are seeing at least some evidence that those concerns may have been overblown and Gardner's game may be able to play at the major league level, so let's enjoy it while it lasts.
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