Thursday, November 13, 2008
Breaking Down the Nick Swisher Trade
Earlier today the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the White Sox. The complete package has Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez heading to Chicago in exchange for Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira.
Swisher had a horrible year in 2008, hitting a lackluster .219/.332/.410. He primarily split time between 1B and CF, with some spot duty in the OF corners as well. Swisher’s line was worth a park-adjusted -5.6 batting runs above the average hitter, which is about 12 runs above replacement level given his playing time.
A quick look at Swisher’s Fan Graphs page gives us the following information.
BB%: BB per PA
K%: K per AB
BB/K: BB divided by K
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that are line drives (On average, these are outs 0.305 of the time)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls (0.812 are outs)
FB%: Percentage of balls in play that are fly balls (0.830 are outs)
IFFB%: Percentage of balls in play that are infield flies (0.985 are outs)
HR/FB: HRs divided by fly balls hit
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play, calculated as (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO - SF)
xBABIP: Expected BABIP, calculated as 0.12 + LD%
ISO: SLG - AVG
Looking at Swisher’s BB% and K% shows us that he was within his expected percentages in 2008. His BB/K rate was also right in his expected range. Swisher’s line drive percentage was slightly higher than it had been in any season prior to 2008, which is ordinarily a good thing. However, in 2008 it didn’t turn out that way. All his other batted ball types were well within his previous performance as well.
Entering 2008, Swisher had a career BABIP of .293 and an xBABIP of .303, so it’s possible that there is something in his skill set that points to the fact that he would underperform expectations on balls in play. However, if we assume that his .293 BABIP entering 2008 was his true talent level, then the standard deviation on that over 1156 balls in play (2005-2007) should be around .0143. What does that all mean?
It means that Swisher’s performance was more than two standard deviations worse than expected.
If Swisher’s BABIP had been his typical xBABIP -0.010 instead of his actual xBABIP - .078, he would have had a BABIP of .319. That would have given him another 19 non-HR hits. Adding that to his line as 65% singles and 35% doubles, and you suddenly have a line of .258/.364/.458, and he would have been 11 runs more valuable by linear weights.
But of course, that’s not what actually happened.
Here is Swisher’s CAIRO projection for 2009 moving him to the Yankees.
%: Percentile forecast (80% = optimistic, 20% = pessimistic)
PA: Plate appearances
AB: At bats
R: Runs
H: Hits
2B: Doubles
3B: Triples
HR: Home runs
RBI: Runs batted in
BB: Walks
HBP: Hit by pitches
K: Strikeouts
SB: Stolen bases
CS: Caught stealings
AVG: Batting average
OBP: On base percentage
SLG: Slugging percentage
OPS: OBP + SLG
OPS+: Park-adjusted OPS relative to league average ( > 100 is better than league average)
pBRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
BR/650: Non position-adjusted raw battng runs using linear weights
If Swisher was acquired to play CF, his baseline projection looks to be about two wins better than a replacement level CF. If he instead ends up as a 1B, knock about 9 runs from that projected value.
If we change Swisher’s 2008 line from his actual line to his BABIP adjusted line, his projection for 2009 improves to .246/.365/.471, and he picks up about ten more runs of projected value.
It’s entirely possible that Swisher may not rebound all that much, although it’s probably worth at least mentioning that he dipped to .204/.321/.316 on June 6 before hitting .231/.339/.475 over his last 349 PA. That’s performance was worth about six runs better than average hitter over those 349 PAs.
Swisher is a switch-hitter who had hit .240/.338/.459 vs. lefties and .253/.396/.429 vs. lefties in his career. So he’s got more power vs. righties, and a better OBP vs. lefties.
Swisher is also signed to a reasonably good contract (around $22M through 2011, with a team option for $10.25M in 2012), although he may have the right to demand a trade as a player traded in the middle of a multi-year contract. I’m not sure if that rule applies to Swisher since he would not yet be eligible for free agency.
Swisher is also a defensively versatile player, having seen a fair amount of time at all three OF positions as well as 1B. Here are his projections at the positions he’s played, based on zone rating.
GP: Games
GS: Games Started
Inn: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
PM: Plays Made
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Zone rating doesn’t necessarily do a great job capturing a first baseman’s skill, so Swisher could be better than his projection there. From what I’ve read, he’s probably worse in CF than that projection shows, but he looks like a solid average defender in the OF corners, with the ability to play CF if needed.
I still would like to see the Yankees pursue Mark Teixeira, because he’s probably close to three wins better at first than Swisher would be, but it’s tough to quibble with this trade. The Yankees got a player who can fill one of the two glaring holes on the team (1B or CF) without giving up anything of major consequence. While I still think Wilson Betemit has some upside and may perform better with more regular playing time, he wasn’t going to get that on a Yankee team with Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano. Jeff Marquez was an intriguing prospect last year but his stock fell this year. Jhonny Nunez is young and has a good arm, but CAIRO actually like Kanekoa Teixeira more and they are the same age.
One last table:
1Bd: Projected 1B defense over 162 games.
CFd: Projected CF defense over 162 games.
1Btr: BR/650 + projected 1B defense.
CFtr: BR/650 + projected CF defense.
Swisher projects around a win better than Juan Miranda would be at first base, and a win better than either Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera would be in CF (assuming Gardner’s more of a +10 defender in CF than his projected +14). So I like this trade, but I’ll like it more if the Yankees still make a bid for Teixeira.
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