Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Breaking Down the Curtis Granderson Acquisition
Even though it’s not quite official, it’s probably close enough to write about, so here’s my take on the rumored Curtis Granderson trade.
According to reports, the Yankees got Granderson by trading Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.
Granderson’s a left-handed hitting CF who will be 29 in 2010. In his career he has hit .272/.344/.484 while generally playing good defense in CF. Here’s a look at how Granderson projects offensively as a Yankee in 2010 according to CAIRO.
| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 162 | 709 | 630 | 117 | 175 | 34 | 16 | 32 | 82 | 83 | 127 | 2 | 24 | 2 | 3 | .278 | .366 | .534 | 121 | 52 | .385 |
| 65% | 157 | 689 | 612 | 109 | 164 | 30 | 14 | 28 | 75 | 76 | 129 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 4 | .268 | .352 | .501 | 107 | 41 | .367 |
| Baseline | 154 | 675 | 600 | 101 | 154 | 27 | 12 | 25 | 70 | 70 | 132 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 5 | .257 | .338 | .468 | 95 | 30 | .348 |
| 35% | 146 | 641 | 570 | 92 | 141 | 23 | 12 | 22 | 62 | 63 | 131 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 3 | .247 | .321 | .443 | 83 | 21 | .330 |
| 20% | 138 | 608 | 540 | 82 | 128 | 20 | 12 | 18 | 55 | 56 | 129 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 2 | .237 | .304 | .418 | 71 | 12 | .312 |
| 2009 | 160 | 710 | 631 | 91 | 160 | 24 | 7.7 | 30 | 71 | 71 | 141 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 1 | .254 | .328 | .460 | 97 | 28 | .340 |
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
For those not familiar with CAIRO, the baseline projection is the primary projection that we should be looking at. However, since projections are inherently limited, the percentile forecast gives us a general range of what Granderson's projection looks within one standard deviation in each direction.
So offensively, Granderson's projected to be worth around 30 runs better than a replacement level CF. FWIW, over 675 PAs, Granderson would project to be about 5 runs better than Johnny Damon offensively, but with the ability to play a good CF instead of a lousy LF.
Granderson also brings a pretty good glove, at least according to zone rating and UZR.
| Player | Curtis Granderson | ||||||||
| Position | cf | ||||||||
| Year | Inn | zDiff | zRS | ARM | DPR | RngR | ErrR | UZR | aRS |
| 2005 | 320 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2006 | 1312 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 14 | 10 |
| 2007 | 1285 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 12 |
| 2008 | 1188 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | -8 | 0 | -9 | -3 |
| 2009 | 1266 | 9 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2010 | 1226 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
zDiff: Plays made compared to an average defender according to zo ne rating
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender according to zone rating
ARM: Runs saved by a player's arm compared to an average defender according to UZR
DPR: Runs saved in terms of turning double plays compared to an average defender according to UZR (for infielders)
RngR: Runs saved by a player's range compared to an average defender according to UZR
ErrR: Runs saved in terms of errors made/not made compared to an average defender according to UZR
UZR: Total runs saved compared to average (sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR)
aRS: Average of zRS and UZR
UZR is a little less enamored of Granderson than zone rating, but an average of the two puts him about a half win better than average.
In terms of non-SB baserunning, Granderson was two runs better than average in 2009, and about five runs better than average in 2008. So he'd probably project to be something like three runs above average.
So plus 30 offense, plus five defense and plus three baserunning gives you a player that should be worth around four wins above replacement level. Granderson is signed through 2012 at a total cost of $23.75M, then there's a team option for 2013 for $12M with a $2M buyout.
Here's how Granderson projects over the next four seasons.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 28 | 675 | 600 | 101 | 154 | 27 | 12 | 25 | 70 | 70 | 132 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 5 | .257 | .338 | .468 | 95 | 30 | .348 |
| 2011 | 29 | 643 | 572 | 96 | 148 | 26 | 11 | 24 | 65 | 68 | 125 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 4 | .258 | .340 | .465 | 91 | 28 | .349 |
| 2012 | 30 | 632 | 560 | 92 | 142 | 24 | 10 | 23 | 63 | 68 | 123 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 4 | .253 | .337 | .455 | 86 | 25 | .344 |
| 2013 | 31 | 622 | 553 | 89 | 140 | 24 | 9 | 23 | 62 | 67 | 123 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 3 | .253 | .336 | .454 | 85 | 24 | .344 |
| Total | 2572 | 2285 | 379 | 584 | 101 | 41 | 96 | 259 | 274 | 503 | 12 | 65 | 18 | 16 | .255 | .338 | .461 | 357 | 108 | .346 |
A lot has been made about Granderson's career platoon splits. .292/.367/.528 in 2211 PAs vs RHP, compared to .210/.270/.344 in 685 PAs vs LHP. I bolded the 685 PAs to make a point. 685 PAs is roughly equivalent to one full season. We wouldn't base our assessment of a player's true talent after 685 PAs in a single season, so why should we do it with Granderson vs. LHP?
We should expect Granderson (or any lefty hitter) to have a non-trivial platoon split. What we shouldn't assume is that a player's career platoon splits to date are what we should expect against LHP going forward, especially after only 685 PAs.
Another split that's interesting with Granderson is his home/road split. In his career he's hit .261/.334/.451 in 1442 PAs at home compared to .284/.353/.516 in 1454 PAs on the road. In general, players hit about 10% better at home. Unfortunately, it doesn't mean we can throw out his home splits and projected him to hit 10% than .284/.353/.516 at home. But it does mean that it's possible Granderson was hurt more by his home field than a general park factor adjustment would capture and may see a better than expected boost if he moves to a park that's better suited to his game (like a certain disgraceful bandbox for example).
Given his age, he shouldn't decline all that much over the next few years. If we assume he'll lose around a run of value defensively each season, his total run value would work out to something like 108 BRAR and 15 defensive runs saved. That works out to around 12 wins over the next four years. On the free agent market, four years and 12 wins would probably cost you around $50M, which is a touch more than $24M. In a lot of ways, this trade parallels the Nick Swisher acquisition, although the Yankees gave up a lot more in this trade. They got a player who's under 30, coming off a down year, signed to a very reasonable contract, with a lot of reasons to think that the player can bounce back.
Now, obviously there's a second part to the equation here, which is who the Yankees traded to get Granderson. I'll put up a separate post about Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke in the next day or two.
Page 1 of 1 pages: