Thursday, October 16, 2008
Bobby Abreu: Should He Stay or Should He Go?
A couple of weeks ago I looked at whether or not the Yankees should keep Jason Giambi in 2009. Today, it’s Bobby Abreu’s turn.
Abreu had a strong offensive season in 2008, around three offensive wins above replacement using context-neutral linear weights. He also hit well in higher leverage situations giving him another few runs of value above and beyond that.
Unfortunately, Abreu gave back a large part of value with his defense. Abreu didn’t make a lot of misplays or errors, but according to zone rating he just didn’t get to balls that other RF get to. Abreu rated as the single worst defender in the American League in terms of runs saved compared to average with his -22.
First, let’s look at how Abreu projects offensive in 2009 using CAIRO.
*2008 line is translated to a neutral park and league which is why it doesn’t match the actual 2008 stat line.
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level using linear weights.
CAIRO is not sanguine about Abreu repeating his 2008. CAIRO expects Abreu to lose around 20-30 pts of batting average and 40-50 pts of slugging. In order to match last year Abreu would have to hit near his 65% projection, which is certainly possible but not the most likely scenario. So Abreu projects to be about average for a RF offensively next year, or two wins above replacement.
Now, the defense.
GP: Games played
GS: Games started
Innings: Defensive innings at position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
PM: Plays made
CH: Fieldable chances (plays in zone converted to outs at least 50% of the time by all defenders)
ZR: Zone rating (PM / CH)
Diff: Difference between PM by an average defender and this specific defender (at the same position)
RS: Runs saved compared to average (Run value of play not made at position times Diff)
Abreu is almost definitely a below average defender, but last year was out of line with his last few seasons. He may have fallen off the cliff, but more likely he faced a higher percentage of more difficult chances or didn’t position himself well. We should project Abreu to rebound somewhat, but at a projected -13 for 2009 he’s still giving back a very significant part of his value.
Abreu is a potential Type A free agent, and the Yankees have the option of offering him arbitration. By way of Peter Abraham directly from Brian Cashman, if he accepts, he would receive a non-guaranteed contract, which means the Yankees can either keep him for another year at whatever price an arbitrator deems to be fair, or they would receive a first round pick and a supplemental pick in the 2009 MLB entry draft (unless he signs with one of the top 15 picking teams, in which case they’d get a second round pick plus a supplemental).
The non-guaranteed part of the arbitration contract is key, and something that people don’t think about. If Abreu accepts, the Yankees are not on the hook for a whole year, they can release him in spring training and only have to pay a portion of the contract (30 or 45 days termination pay).
This makes offering arbitration to all the free agents a no-brainer IMO.
Abreu is probably a good bet to decline arbitration anyway, since he is looking for a three year deal and will probably get it from someone. As long as that’s not the Yankees, that’s the best case scenario if you look at his 3 year CAIRO forecast.
Abreu projects to only be worth about 2.5 WAR (wins above replacement) over the next three seasons if zone rating is accurate about his defense. That’s only worth around $12 million, but odds are someone’s going to offer him that PER SEASON.
So I’m going to go ahead and answer no to Abreu staying. I like him, but his days of being above average are likely over.
Page 1 of 1 pages: