Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Assessing the 2010 Yankees as of December 16, 2009
I figured it’s time to take a look at how the Yankees’ roster for 2010 looks right now so we can see where the big holes are and speculate on how they should be resolved, so here’s how they look using CAIRO.
First, here’s my stab at the projected lineup and playing time.
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 625 | .307/.374/.425 | 84 | 391 | 29 | -4 | 2.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | .257/.339/.462 | 87 | 413 | 26 | 5 | 3.1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 670 | .280/.380/.529 | 111 | 416 | 34 | 3 | 3.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 605 | .282/.389/.546 | 105 | 370 | 44 | -4 | 4.0 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 625 | .311/.348/.494 | 90 | 407 | 30 | -1 | 3.0 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 425 | .266/.352/.455 | 58 | 276 | 21 | -5 | 1.6 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 550 | .235/.356/.444 | 74 | 354 | 16 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Melky Cabrera | LF | 500 | .263/.328/.390 | 56 | 336 | 4 | -2 | 0.2 |
| Juan Miranda | DH | 463 | .247/.331/.427 | 57 | 310 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Starters Total | 5088 | 722 | 3272 | 205 | -7 | 19.8 |
BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS)
Playing time is a bit optimistic here right now for most of the starters, but I did that intentionally so we can see exactly which positions profile as the weakest over a full season. Shocking no one, it’s LF and DH, although I should note that Melky’s defensive projection in LF does not factor in his CF numbers and is based on a very small sample. Since he projects a hair above average in CF(+2), it’s more likely than not that he’d be a plus defender in LF. Maybe a +7 or so.
The bench looks like this.
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 235 | .251/.326/.357 | 23 | 158 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Brett Gardner | CF | 275 | .262/.353/.351 | 32 | 178 | 6 | 5 | 1.1 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 240 | .240/.306/.316 | 20 | 166 | -2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Kevin Russo | 2B | 175 | .249/.313/.338 | 16 | 120 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Jamie Hoffmann | CF | 300 | .242/.319/.359 | 30 | 204 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Bench Total | 1225 | 121 | 827 | 7 | 5 | 1.1 |
Adding that up gets us this.
| Player | PA | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Team Total | 6313 | 843 | 4100 | 212 | -2 | 21.0 |
We can probably add about a win to that if we assume Melky’s a +7 defender in LF instead of a -2. My version of WAR sets replacement level a touch higher than most (around a 52 win team) so this means the Yankee position players would push the Yankees to around 73 wins. For every WAR they can add at DH or LF, add another win to that.
As far as what they should do, I’ll say this:
1) I hate the concept of a rotating DH. It makes the assumption that the Yankees will be healthy all year. As soon as you lose one of your starters, you are now facing a situation where you’ll have a replacement level hitter at a position that can only provide value on offense.
2) I’m starting to cool on the idea of bringing back Johnny Damon at almost any cost. His projection scares me (.264/.345/.427) even though I know projections are limited. His defense scares me, even though last year wasn’t bad enough to drag down his defensive projection far below average. While Damon has every right to ask for whatever he wants in his next contract, I have every right to be annoyed about him doing it and I think I am now.
The Yankees probably need at least one bat, and preferrably two. One to put at DH, and one to put in LF. Their current payroll commitment for 2010 is around $188M according to Cot’s. That seems reasonably close to their rumored budget in 2010, so I don’t know what they can do.
Here’s how the pitching staff looks.
| Pitching | Role | IP | R | WAR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 76 | 6.0 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 180 | 84 | 3.8 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP3 | 180 | 90 | 3.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP4 | 170 | 87 | 2.8 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 150 | 64 | 2.0 |
| Chad Gaudin | SP6 | 60 | 33 | 0.8 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP7 | 50 | 31 | 0.3 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP8 | 25 | 16 | 0.1 |
| Starter Total | 1015 | 480 | 19.0 | |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 70 | 19 | 2.2 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 25 | 0.5 |
| David Robertson | SU | 60 | 27 | 0.9 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 70 | 37 | 0.5 |
| Mark Melancon | MR | 50 | 29 | 0.1 |
| Romulo Sanchez | MR | 50 | 33 | -0.4 |
| Edwar Ramirez | LR | 25 | 13 | 0.2 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 25 | 20 | -0.5 |
| Ivan Nova | LR | 25 | 19 | -0.4 |
| Reliever Total | 425 | 222 | 3.1 | |
| Pitching Total | 1440 | 702 | 22.0 |
I’m just showing an estimated innings pitched and then the runs allowed over those innings for everyone, and how it translates to WAR. I use RA to calculate WAR, so it’s simply the difference in runs allowed over the projected innings compared to a replacement level pitcher.
I went a little more conservative here with the innings. CC’s projected to throw 230 but I knocked him down to 200. Burnett’s projected to throw 187, I knocked him down by a game, and also knocked Pettitte down by about 20 IP. I’m assuming Joba can throw 15 more innings than last year, and I’m also assuming Hughes’s prior time as a starter means he can get to 150 IP in 2010. Then I threw in some innings for Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre and Zach McAllister.
Using these estimated innings, the starters would project to be somewhere around 19.0 WAR, which is pretty good.
The bullpen ended up looking worse than I’d have expected. The top four are fine, but after that they’re essentially replacement level. Obviously we know that Mark Melancon is talented, but we also don’t know how good he’ll be in 2010. Romulo Sanchez has good stuff, but he’s never really done much with it, in either the majors or the minors. While I still think Edwar Ramirez can pitch at the major league level, the numbers right now aren’t too supportive. And even if Kei Igawa himself doesn’t actually pitch for the Yanks in 2010, someone who’ll give a similar performance very likely will which is why I have him in here.
Overall though, the pitching staff looks every bit as valuable as the position players, so this version of the Yankees on paper would look to be about 43.0 WAR in total. Add that to 52 and you get about a 95 win team. Looking at the runs scored (BR) and runs allowed (pitching and defense) and plugging it into Pythagenpat gives us a 94.8 - 67.2 record. In both cases we should subtract 2-3 wins from that to account for the AL East.
While this is encouraging, it makes a few big assumptions.
- Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will be healthy and effective in the rotation all year
- No disastrous injuries in the rest of the pitching staff
- Good health from all the starting position players
- At least replacement level play by the bench
So now the question becomes, what bat(s) should they add?
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