Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Are the Yankees trying to bring back Javier Vazquez?
That's what Joel Sherman's twittering or tweeting or twitting or whatever you kids call it.#Yankees working hard to re-acquire Javier Vazquez, I have learned, link to follow soon
Maybe they should sign Randy Choate and trade for Juan Rivera then trade Choate + Rivera + Nick Johnson for him?
Update(9:46 am): Jon Heyman's saying a deal has been reached.
SI_JonHeyman
1. vazquez will be a pretty darned good 4th starter for #yankees. good job by cashman. melky is easily replaceable. 8 minutes ago from web
2. #yankees, #braves deal will send vazquez, boone logan to ny for melky, lhp mike dunn and a prospect. si.com story up soon 11 minutes ago from web
Uhm, Vazquez should be the #2 starter.
Update(9:52 am): Here's how Vazquez would project as a Yankee in 2010.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 19 | 7 | 232 | 197 | 79 | 73 | 21 | 46 | 241 | 3.06 | 2.85 | 2.94 | 74.6 | 7.5 |
| 65% | 17 | 8 | 222 | 195 | 83 | 78 | 23 | 47 | 223 | 3.39 | 3.17 | 3.22 | 62.9 | 6.3 |
| Baseline | 15 | 8 | 211 | 193 | 88 | 83 | 24 | 49 | 205 | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.49 | 51.3 | 5.1 |
| 35% | 13 | 8 | 190 | 180 | 84 | 78 | 24 | 47 | 178 | 3.96 | 3.72 | 3.76 | 41.9 | 4.2 |
| 20% | 11 | 7 | 169 | 166 | 78 | 73 | 23 | 44 | 152 | 4.16 | 3.91 | 4.04 | 33.5 | 3.3 |
| 2009 | 15 | 10 | 219 | 181 | 82 | 76 | 22 | 42 | 228 | 3.35 | 3.12 | 3.06 | 63.4 | 6.3 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
If you were to believe CAIRO, which is deadly accurate, the Yankees just added one of the top five starters in baseball. I'd temper that slightly because Vazquez has had a history of having better peripherals than actual performance (career FIP of 3.83 vs. career ERA of 4.19), but I don't think it's a stretch to say he's a #1 starter right now, who slots in nicely behind CC Sabathia.
Update(10:02 pm): Full trade is Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan from Atlanta for Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino is a very good prospect, but he's still pretty far from the majors. We know the deal with Melky, and Dunn has a great arm and horrible command. Seems like a fair trade to me. Boone Logan looks like filler, a lefty who projects around replacement level right now, although maybe he can be used as a LOOGY or something. Here's his CAIRO:
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 4 | 2 | 55 | 54 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 52 | 4.21 | 3.62 | 3.50 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
| 65% | 3 | 3 | 53 | 55 | 29 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 46 | 4.89 | 4.24 | 4.10 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Baseline | 3 | 3 | 50 | 56 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 25 | 41 | 5.64 | 4.92 | 4.71 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 35% | 2 | 3 | 45 | 54 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 25 | 34 | 6.15 | 5.39 | 5.31 | -4.7 | -0.5 |
| 20% | 2 | 3 | 40 | 51 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 24 | 28 | 6.65 | 5.86 | 5.91 | -6.4 | -0.6 |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 6.79 | 5.66 | 4.55 | -3.0 | -0.3 |
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