Monday, April 21, 2008
April 21 - Yankee Offense Projections vs. Actuals
So the team that I projected to score around 930 runs this year is on pace to score 689, which would rank ninth in the AL if things held up. Here's a look at each player's contributions to that.| Player | pAVG | pOBP | pSLG | pBR | aAVG | aOBP | aSLG | aBR | Brdiff |
| Jose Molina | .243 | .280 | .360 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .528 | 6 | 3 |
| Chad Moeller | .225 | .299 | .348 | 2 | .350 | .435 | .600 | 5 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsui | .287 | .367 | .477 | 11 | .323 | .405 | .523 | 13 | 2 |
| Melky Cabrera | .282 | .344 | .406 | 8 | .281 | .353 | .456 | 10 | 1 |
| Alberto Gonzalez | .253 | .301 | .348 | 2 | .333 | .400 | .467 | 3 | 1 |
| Morgan Ensberg | .248 | .365 | .446 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .500 | 3 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | .243 | .311 | .453 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0 | -1 |
| Johnny Damon | .280 | .353 | .423 | 11 | .215 | .333 | .400 | 10 | -1 |
| Bobby Abreu | .277 | .383 | .439 | 12 | .306 | .367 | .458 | 11 | -1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .300 | .406 | .574 | 16 | .308 | .357 | .551 | 14 | -1 |
| Wilson Betemit | .258 | .333 | .445 | 2 | .154 | .214 | .154 | 0 | -2 |
| Derek Jeter | .307 | .379 | .438 | 8 | .309 | .339 | .418 | 7 | -2 |
| Jorge Posada | .286 | .380 | .469 | 7 | .261 | .306 | .391 | 5 | -2 |
| Jason Giambi | .245 | .387 | .474 | 9 | .109 | .288 | .283 | 5 | -4 |
| Robinson Cano | .308 | .348 | .482 | 12 | .169 | .200 | .234 | 2 | -9 |
| Total | .280 | .362 | .453 | 107 | .265 | .331 | .425 | 93 | -13 |
pAVG: Projected batting average
pOBP: Projected on base percentage
pSLG: Projected slugging average
pBR: Projected batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
aAVG: Actual batting average
aOBP: Actual on base percentage
aSLG: Actual slugging average
aBR: Actual batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
Brdiff: Difference between projected batting runs and actual, pro-rated to actual playing time
There are some rounding issues in the table above so if things don't seem to add up here, trust me, they actually do in Excel. The batting runs are adjusted for actual playing time so it's a direct comparison, but no position-adjusment is included. The Yankee offense theoretically should have scored 13 fewer runs than you'd expect given the allocation of playing time and the players' projections on offense. They're actually even worse than that at 85 runs, thanks to poor hitting in the clutch primarily.
God bless Molino and Moello, or they'd be six runs worse than that. Add in the pitching staff, which has the fifth worst RA in the AL at 4.82 and has saved five fewer runs than average, and you have a 23 run deficit, which is about 2.3 wins. Not coincidentally, they sit 10-10 while log5 says they should have expected to be 11.6 - 8.4 to this point.
For all the crap Giambi's been getting, Cano is the single biggest problem on this team. He's been so bad offensively that even with the +1 defense he's played so far, his overall "value" to the team is -8 runs. Let's hope for a heat wave soon.
Page 1 of 1 pages: