Saturday, August 1, 2009
Alfredo Aceves - ERA vs. FIP through Games of 7/31/2009
Corrections suck.
In other news, Jerrey Hairston Jr. Gets Drafted in The Yankees.
This season of 'transfer' in MLB has been quite a talked about one. With big names finding their new homes (players getting drafted to different teams), one can surely expect one mind boggling season of baseball this year. But the trading off of inside/outsider Jerry Hairston Jr. to the Yankees has been a bit different from the "trading offs" we have witnessed this season.
While Victor Martinez, Jake Peavy and Jarrod Washburn were all dealt to contenders, the Yankees' only move was to acquire Jerry Hairston Jr. from the Reds. According to the reports, the Bombers sent minor league catcher Chase Weems to Cincinnati for Hairston, who is set to join his new team this Saturday, prior to their game against Chicago.
Indeed, the season of transfer has been quite talked about.
Hairston strengthens the bench partially by being a better hitter than Cody Ransom. Then again, Miguel Cairo may do the same and he's out of baseball I think.
| System | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | wOBA |
| 2009 chone projection | 335 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 46 | .265 | .328 | .395 | 40 | 77 | .310 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 367 | 84 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 28 | 55 | .259 | .308 | .392 | 41 | 73 | .293 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 309 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 41 | .284 | .338 | .450 | 42 | 88 | .328 |
| 2009 tht projection | 352 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 25 | 49 | .266 | .327 | .409 | 43 | 80 | .313 |
| 2009 zips projection | 174 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 27 | .272 | .339 | .405 | 21 | 80 | .319 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 313 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 44 | .273 | .327 | .408 | 38 | 78 | .310 |
| 2009 average projection | 308 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 44 | .270 | .328 | .410 | 38 | 79 | .312 |
| 2009 actuals | 340 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 46 | .254 | .291 | .397 | 36 | 69 | .284 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BR/650: Batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
CAIRO had Hairston projected to hit around .273/ .327/.408 entering 2009, and his average projection was for a line of around .270/.328/.410. He's missing around .015 - .020 points of batting average at .254/.291/.397 instead. His going forward projection is for a line of around .263/.312/.404 (wOBA of .300). Ransom's going forward projection is for a line of .000/.000/.000 (actually .222/.295/.392, wOBA of .287), so that's a slight upgrade. The difference between a wOBA of .300 and .287 over 100 PAs is only about a run, so it's not a huge difference offensively.
The bigger advantage Hairston brings is defensive versatility. He's played every position except 1B, C, and P this year. Here's a quick look at his career zone ratings:
| Player | Year | Pos | GP | Inn | CH | PM | ZR | Diff | RS | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | 2B | 291 | 2454.3 | 877 | 731 | .834 | 15 | 11 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | 3B | 44 | 322.0 | 82 | 62 | .756 | -2 | -1 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | CF | 42 | 268.0 | 87 | 79 | .908 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | LF | 54 | 205.3 | 53 | 48 | .906 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | RF | 23 | 100.0 | 29 | 27 | .931 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | Career | SS | 67 | 491.3 | 144 | 120 | .833 | 2 | 1 |
GP: Games played
Inn: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and PM by an average defender
RS: Runs saved compared to average
Although we have sample size concerns with most of the positions, at least so far Hairston's been average or above at every position but 3B. Hairston's also stolen 134 bases in his career, although at a percentage lower than the break-even point. So he should be useful in a pinch-running role if needed, as long as the goal of said pinch-running is not necessarily to steal, but to give the team a better chance to score on a non-HR hit.
A couple of tough losses in Chicago have carved the Yankees' lead in the AL East back down to 1.5 games. Hopefully A.J. Burnett can stop the bleeding against John Danks, who's having a strong season for the White Sox.
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