Sunday, July 5, 2009
AL Team Pitching Stats Through Games of July 4, 2009
Apologies for the lack of posts this week, but I've crawled out of the basement to enjoy the July Fourth week and haven't been around a computer much. I have caught at least parts of most of the games this week at either bars or at friend's houses, with the occasional torturous John Sterling listen thrown in, so I have been able to enjoy the Yankees winning nine of their last 10 games at least.Anyway, I was enjoying the Yankees' recent stretch of pitching (93 IP, 77 H, 9 HR, 30 BB, 81 K, 3.00 ERA over their last 10 games) and wanted to see how they rank in the AL after their crappy April. So I pulled the splits for every team for April, then May through July 4, using David Pinto's Day by Day Database.
The only problem with this database is it pulls the data in terms of how batters have done against the pitchers, so we have to finagle it a little if we want to look at in terms of our standard pitching stats.
Basically, I just have to convert outs recorded (PA - H - HBP - BB + GDP) to innings pitched. The splits don't include pickoffs, caught stealings, or outs on the bases, although those shouldn't make a big difference in the overall numbers, and probably shouldn't necessarily be credited to the pitchers anyway. I'm using the batting events to calculate context-neutral batting runs against using linear weights instead of looking at actual runs allowed.
I'll also include the FIP data to account for defense and/or random fluctuations that may not be captured in the actual batting events. I haven't park-adjusted these numbers, which for the Yankees means their HRs will probably show as too high which will impact their FIP, so keep that in mind. Their runs allowed will also look high depending on what the NYS Park Factor is. Last time I looked at it it was 1.06, but I haven't looked at in a while. If you want to adjust for that, multiply their BR allowed by 0.97.
So here's how the teams performed in April, sorted by runs saved above replacement (RSAR) looking at BR(batting runs) per nine, which will usually scale somewhere between team RA and ERA.
| Team | BF | Outs | IP | H | BR | HR | BB | HBP | K | BR/9 | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR | K/BF | BB/BF |
| SEA | 830 | 589 | 196.3 | 179 | 78 | 13 | 69 | 8 | 148 | 3.56 | 3.73 | 30.2 | 51.7 | 21.2 | 41.7 | 0.178 | 0.083 |
| KCA | 806 | 578 | 192.7 | 172 | 77 | 16 | 74 | 5 | 172 | 3.62 | 3.72 | 28.4 | 49.6 | 20.9 | 41.0 | 0.213 | 0.092 |
| OAK | 765 | 531 | 177.0 | 163 | 81 | 18 | 88 | 2 | 128 | 4.12 | 4.60 | 16.3 | 35.7 | 1.9 | 20.4 | 0.167 | 0.115 |
| TBA | 856 | 595 | 198.3 | 189 | 99 | 23 | 87 | 6 | 147 | 4.47 | 4.63 | 10.4 | 32.2 | 1.5 | 22.2 | 0.172 | 0.102 |
| TOR | 928 | 648 | 216.0 | 202 | 111 | 27 | 88 | 9 | 177 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 8.0 | 31.8 | 4.0 | 26.5 | 0.191 | 0.095 |
| DET | 791 | 548 | 182.7 | 185 | 95 | 26 | 72 | 3 | 137 | 4.68 | 4.78 | 5.5 | 25.5 | -1.7 | 17.4 | 0.173 | 0.091 |
| BOS | 884 | 593 | 197.7 | 200 | 108 | 22 | 93 | 13 | 162 | 4.91 | 4.62 | 0.9 | 22.6 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 0.183 | 0.105 |
| CHA | 839 | 558 | 186.0 | 205 | 102 | 16 | 81 | 3 | 135 | 4.93 | 4.22 | 0.3 | 20.7 | 9.9 | 29.3 | 0.161 | 0.097 |
| MIN | 838 | 571 | 190.3 | 213 | 107 | 26 | 62 | 5 | 132 | 5.06 | 4.64 | -2.4 | 18.5 | 1.2 | 21.0 | 0.158 | 0.074 |
| LAA | 819 | 549 | 183.0 | 217 | 103 | 20 | 70 | 4 | 114 | 5.05 | 4.59 | -2.1 | 18.0 | 2.3 | 21.4 | 0.139 | 0.085 |
| NYA | 871 | 580 | 193.3 | 206 | 120 | 28 | 86 | 16 | 156 | 5.58 | 5.05 | -13.7 | 7.5 | -7.6 | 12.6 | 0.179 | 0.099 |
| CLE | 873 | 579 | 193.0 | 217 | 128 | 30 | 94 | 10 | 142 | 5.95 | 5.37 | -21.6 | -0.4 | -14.3 | 5.9 | 0.163 | 0.108 |
| TEX | 853 | 559 | 186.3 | 215 | 124 | 33 | 84 | 11 | 114 | 5.97 | 5.81 | -21.3 | -0.8 | -23.0 | -3.5 | 0.134 | 0.098 |
| BAL | 890 | 580 | 193.3 | 243 | 145 | 40 | 70 | 8 | 151 | 6.75 | 5.54 | -38.8 | -17.6 | -18.0 | 2.2 | 0.170 | 0.079 |
| LgAvg | 11843 | 8058 | 2686.0 | 2806 | 1476 | 338 | 1118 | 103 | 2015 | 4.94 | 4.70 | 0.0 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 0.170 | 0.094 |
BR/9: Batting runs allowed per nine innings using linear weights
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number.
RSAA: Runs saved above average using BR/9 subtracted from league average BR/9 divided by nine times innings pitched.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement using BR/9 but subtracted from a replacement level instead of average (1.2 times league average)
FRSAA: RSAA calculated using FIP instead of BR/9
FRSAR: RSAR calculated using FIP instead of BR/9
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
BB/BF: Walks per batters faced
The Yankees were less than a win better than replacement level in April, ranking 14th in the AL in RSAR, ahead of only Cleveland, Texas, and Baltimore. While the longball didn't help things, several teams were worse in that department. FIP felt they pitched a bit better than BR/9, but not that much better.
Since May 1, here's how the teams have performed.
| Team | BF | Outs | IP | H | BR | HR | BB | HBP | K | BR/9 | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR | K/BF | BB/BF |
| CHA | 2195 | 1569 | 523.0 | 482 | 234 | 63 | 176 | 16 | 425 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 30.1 | 82.8 | 11.9 | 63.6 | 0.194 | 0.080 |
| SEA | 2201 | 1535 | 511.7 | 494 | 247 | 63 | 202 | 14 | 379 | 4.34 | 4.59 | 11.2 | 62.8 | -7.9 | 42.7 | 0.172 | 0.092 |
| MIN | 2223 | 1571 | 523.7 | 519 | 257 | 68 | 158 | 24 | 383 | 4.41 | 4.47 | 7.2 | 60.0 | -1.2 | 50.6 | 0.172 | 0.071 |
| TEX | 2166 | 1518 | 506.0 | 497 | 248 | 58 | 181 | 25 | 326 | 4.40 | 4.62 | 7.6 | 58.6 | -9.9 | 40.1 | 0.151 | 0.084 |
| BOS | 2181 | 1508 | 502.7 | 510 | 246 | 49 | 166 | 28 | 432 | 4.40 | 3.91 | 7.9 | 58.6 | 30.2 | 79.9 | 0.198 | 0.076 |
| NYA | 2182 | 1515 | 505.0 | 469 | 248 | 72 | 205 | 26 | 450 | 4.42 | 4.64 | 6.4 | 57.3 | -11.0 | 38.9 | 0.206 | 0.094 |
| TBA | 2194 | 1534 | 511.3 | 499 | 253 | 64 | 185 | 15 | 401 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 5.2 | 56.7 | 0.9 | 51.4 | 0.183 | 0.084 |
| OAK | 2276 | 1583 | 527.7 | 557 | 267 | 58 | 175 | 9 | 402 | 4.56 | 4.15 | -1.1 | 52.2 | 17.4 | 69.5 | 0.177 | 0.077 |
| LgAvg | 30939 | 21495 | 7165.0 | 7193 | 3613 | 856 | 2632 | 267 | 5444 | 4.54 | 4.45 | 0.0 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 38.4 | 0.176 | 0.085 |
| DET | 2212 | 1530 | 510.0 | 500 | 258 | 57 | 227 | 12 | 405 | 4.55 | 4.47 | -0.6 | 50.8 | -1.3 | 49.1 | 0.183 | 0.103 |
| KCA | 2184 | 1506 | 502.0 | 523 | 254 | 52 | 183 | 17 | 366 | 4.56 | 4.28 | -1.2 | 49.4 | 9.1 | 58.7 | 0.168 | 0.084 |
| TOR | 2163 | 1507 | 502.3 | 512 | 258 | 64 | 172 | 19 | 399 | 4.63 | 4.41 | -5.0 | 45.7 | 2.2 | 51.8 | 0.184 | 0.080 |
| BAL | 2231 | 1539 | 513.0 | 542 | 277 | 61 | 183 | 23 | 322 | 4.85 | 4.70 | -18.0 | 33.7 | -14.1 | 36.6 | 0.144 | 0.082 |
| LAA | 2203 | 1506 | 502.0 | 517 | 270 | 64 | 195 | 28 | 389 | 4.84 | 4.64 | -17.0 | 33.6 | -10.8 | 38.9 | 0.177 | 0.089 |
| CLE | 2328 | 1574 | 524.7 | 572 | 297 | 63 | 224 | 11 | 365 | 5.10 | 4.71 | -32.5 | 20.4 | -15.5 | 36.3 | 0.157 | 0.096 |
The Yankees have been markedly better since April, moving up to fifth best in terms of runs saved above replacement. Their BR/9 has been better than their FIP, which could mean any or all of the following:
1) Their defense is playing better than average
2) The pitchers are allowing more easily fieldable balls in play (fewer line drives, more fly balls)
3) Random fluctuation of how balls in play have been distributed
4) Other stuff I'm probably not thinking of
We also see the Yankees have the best strikeout rate in the AL since April (they struck out 20.6% of the batters they faced compared to a league average of 17.6%). The BB rate isn't great at 9.4%, although Cleveland (9.6%) and Detroit (10.3%) have been worse.
Lastly, here's how the teams look for the entire season.
| Team | BF | Outs | IP | H | BR | HR | BB | HBP | K | BR/9 | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR | K/BF | BB/BF |
| SEA | 3031 | 2124 | 708 | 673 | 325 | 76 | 271 | 22 | 527 | 4.13 | 4.35 | 41.3 | 114.5 | 13.3 | 84.4 | 0.174 | 0.089 |
| CHA | 3034 | 2127 | 709 | 687 | 336 | 79 | 257 | 19 | 560 | 4.26 | 4.24 | 30.4 | 103.6 | 21.8 | 92.9 | 0.185 | 0.085 |
| KCA | 2990 | 2084 | 694.7 | 695 | 332 | 68 | 257 | 22 | 538 | 4.30 | 4.13 | 27.2 | 99.0 | 30.0 | 99.7 | 0.180 | 0.086 |
| TBA | 3050 | 2129 | 709.7 | 688 | 351 | 87 | 272 | 21 | 548 | 4.45 | 4.49 | 15.5 | 88.9 | 2.3 | 73.6 | 0.180 | 0.089 |
| OAK | 3041 | 2114 | 704.7 | 720 | 348 | 76 | 263 | 11 | 530 | 4.45 | 4.26 | 15.2 | 87.9 | 19.3 | 89.9 | 0.174 | 0.086 |
| BOS | 3065 | 2101 | 700.3 | 710 | 353 | 71 | 259 | 41 | 594 | 4.54 | 4.11 | 8.8 | 81.2 | 32.0 | 102.4 | 0.194 | 0.085 |
| MIN | 3061 | 2142 | 714 | 732 | 364 | 94 | 220 | 29 | 515 | 4.59 | 4.52 | 4.8 | 78.5 | -0.1 | 71.6 | 0.168 | 0.072 |
| TOR | 3091 | 2155 | 718.3 | 714 | 369 | 91 | 260 | 28 | 576 | 4.62 | 4.45 | 3.0 | 77.4 | 6.2 | 78.4 | 0.186 | 0.084 |
| DET | 3003 | 2078 | 692.7 | 685 | 353 | 83 | 299 | 15 | 542 | 4.58 | 4.55 | 4.8 | 76.3 | -3.0 | 66.5 | 0.180 | 0.100 |
| NYA | 3053 | 2095 | 698.3 | 675 | 368 | 100 | 291 | 42 | 606 | 4.75 | 4.76 | -7.3 | 64.9 | -18.6 | 51.5 | 0.198 | 0.095 |
| TEX | 3019 | 2077 | 692.3 | 712 | 371 | 91 | 265 | 36 | 440 | 4.83 | 4.94 | -13.7 | 57.8 | -32.8 | 36.6 | 0.146 | 0.088 |
| LAA | 3022 | 2055 | 685 | 734 | 373 | 84 | 265 | 32 | 503 | 4.90 | 4.63 | -19.1 | 51.6 | -8.5 | 60.2 | 0.166 | 0.088 |
| CLE | 3201 | 2153 | 717.7 | 789 | 425 | 93 | 318 | 21 | 507 | 5.33 | 4.89 | -54.1 | 20.0 | -29.8 | 42.2 | 0.158 | 0.099 |
| BAL | 3121 | 2119 | 706.3 | 785 | 422 | 101 | 253 | 31 | 473 | 5.37 | 4.93 | -56.8 | 16.2 | -32.1 | 38.7 | 0.152 | 0.081 |
| LgAvg | 42782 | 29553 | 9851 | 9999 | 5089 | 1194 | 3750 | 370 | 7459 | 4.65 | 4.52 | 0.0 | 72.7 | 0.0 | 70.6 | 0.174 | 0.088 |
Looking at the season at a whole, the Yankees are still below average overall (10th in RSAR), although trending upward. If we adjust their numbers for a 1.06 park factor we only get about a five run difference in their BR/9, so they would still rank ninth in terms of RSAR. The K rate is encouraging, but I'd like to see the BB rate come down a little.
Looking at the teams ahead of the Yankees, none are really outpitching their FIP, so if the Yankees are going to move up this list they'll probably need to do it on their own. I think I could see them creeping towards average, which would necessitate passing Detroit and Toronto. Given their ballpark that would be pretty good.
In roster news, Wang goes to the DL, with Albaladejo being called up. I don't think this means Hughes gets Wang's next start, I think it just means they wanted a bullpen arm for the next four days while they decide who gets the start in Wang's stead.
Page 1 of 1 pages: