Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Absolute MUST Win—Times Three
In past seasons the Yankees have put themselves in situations where they’ve had to step up to make the postseason. There have usually been multiple paths, but in 2008, we’re down to one.
The Yankees need to win tonight, win tomorrow, and win Thursday. They can’t lose any of these games, or their chances to make the postseason require a major failure on the part of the Red Sox and either Minnesota or Chicago, or historically near-perfect play from the Yankees down the stretch.
Sweep, and the Yankees are two games behind Boston—and while the Twins and White Sox could slip past Boston for the Wild Card lead, the first step has to be catching Boston. Facing no worse than a 3½ game deficit after Thursday with a sweep, and likely 2 or 2½, their deficit will be a reasonable one to make up.
But if they “only” win two of three, they’re at best 4 games out of the Wild Card, behind Boston and the second place team in the Central. Lose 2 games and they’re 6 behind Boston, get swept and they’re 8 back. 4 games will require a lot of help, 6 or 8 games requires a miracle.
They can win these games: Tim Wakefield hasn’t pitched since August 6th, has a 5.14 career ERA against the Yanks and they’ve beaten Boston the last 6 times Wakefield has started. Paul Byrd has given up nearly 6 runs per 9 innings in his career against the Yankees, and Jon Lester has dominated the Yankees this season, but gave up 7 runs in his last start, and the Yankees fortunately match Mike Mussina against him.
But Boston is hitting very well lately, and the Yankees’ offense has been agonizingly inconsistent all season. The expectation should be that they’ll win two games at best, but they need to exceed expectations—the cost of not meeting them all year.
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