Monday, June 16, 2008
A Tale of Two Lefties
With Chien-Ming Wang suffering a foot injury, there's a new meme going around that the Yankees should explore trading for C.C. Sabathia. If Sabathia is truly available, I think it's at least worth exploring. While I'd like to think that the Yankees have enough young pitching in the minors to last them for the next 10 years, the truth is that most of the names we're reading about now will not pan out. With 40 man roster issues and the Rule 5 draft looming, at some point the Yankees are going to lose some of the arms they are developing, so it makes sense to get something of value for them.I like Sabathia quite a bit. He's got a great combination of stuff and control, and he's developed into a workhorse. While there are valid concerns about his weight, I wouldn't really be all that worried about him since he's been pretty durable and healthy. He started this season off poorly but has been as good as ever more recently.
Johan Santana was available if the Yankees wanted him this offseason, but they felt the price was too high. So why would they trade for Sabathia when Santana is clearly better? Here are two sets of numbers to ponder.
Player A
| Year | Age | G | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | WAA | WAR | Value |
| 2009 | 28 | 32 | 19 | 10 | 222 | 221 | 100 | 92 | 21 | 44 | 181 | 3.72 | 1.8 | 4.6 | $20,727,852 |
| 2010 | 29 | 32 | 19 | 10 | 220 | 219 | 100 | 92 | 20 | 43 | 177 | 3.76 | 1.7 | 4.5 | $20,090,486 |
| 2011 | 30 | 31 | 18 | 10 | 214 | 214 | 98 | 91 | 20 | 41 | 170 | 3.82 | 1.5 | 4.2 | $18,904,375 |
| 2012 | 31 | 30 | 17 | 9 | 203 | 204 | 95 | 88 | 19 | 38 | 160 | 3.89 | 1.3 | 3.8 | $17,240,196 |
| 2013 | 32 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 189 | 192 | 91 | 84 | 18 | 35 | 146 | 3.98 | 1.0 | 3.4 | $15,203,250 |
| 2014 | 33 | 25 | 14 | 8 | 172 | 178 | 85 | 78 | 16 | 31 | 131 | 4.09 | 0.7 | 2.9 | $12,923,107 |
| Total | 178 | 101 | 56 | 1221 | 1228 | 568 | 525 | 114 | 231 | 964 | 3.87 | 8 | 23 | $105,089,267 |
Player B
| Year | Age | G | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | WAA | WAR | Value |
| 2009 | 30 | 33 | 20 | 9 | 224 | 180 | 92 | 85 | 30 | 52 | 219 | 3.40 | 2.7 | 5.5 | $24,528,340 |
| 2010 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 9 | 213 | 172 | 89 | 82 | 29 | 48 | 205 | 3.47 | 2.4 | 5.0 | $22,637,377 |
| 2011 | 32 | 29 | 17 | 8 | 199 | 162 | 85 | 78 | 27 | 44 | 188 | 3.54 | 2.0 | 4.5 | $20,284,055 |
| 2012 | 33 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 181 | 150 | 79 | 73 | 25 | 40 | 168 | 3.64 | 1.7 | 3.9 | $17,613,020 |
| 2013 | 34 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 162 | 137 | 73 | 68 | 23 | 35 | 147 | 3.75 | 1.3 | 3.3 | $14,866,583 |
| 2014 | 35 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 142 | 122 | 66 | 61 | 20 | 31 | 126 | 3.88 | 0.9 | 2.7 | $12,090,431 |
| Total | 166 | 97 | 47 | 1121 | 923 | 484 | 447 | 155 | 250 | 1053 | 3.59 | 11 | 25 | $112,019,806 |
WAA: Wins above average
WAR: Wins above replacement
Value: WAR times $4.5 million
With the caveat that I have as much faith in multi-year pitching projections as I do in Kyle Farnsworth, 8th inning man™, these are the CAIRO projections for Sabathia and Santana if they were Yankees over the next six years. Right now, Santana(Player B) is the better pitcher and that's pretty indisputable. It's also fairly unlikely that Sabathia will end up being any better than Santana at any point over the next six years. But Sabathia has one big advantage on Santana, he is two years younger. So even though he's not likely to be as good as Santana has been, due to the attrition rate as pitchers age, he's at least projected to be fairly similar in overall value due to a better likelihood of durability.
Like I alluded to, projecting pitchers is iffy. Projecting them out for six years is even iffier. Any of the thousands of pitches they throw every season could be their last. But the argument that the Yankees didn't go for Santana so they shouldn't go for Sabathia doesn't really make sense.
As far as what it would take to get him, it won't be cheap. If Sabathia leaves as a free agent the Indians would get a first round pick and a supplemental pick, so they'd have to get at least two players whom they feel are better than that. Odds are also pretty good that Boston will get in the mix to at least raise the price for the Yankees.
Obviously the best case scenario is Sabathia leaving as a free agent and the Yankees signing him for just cash and a lost first round pick, but it's also pretty unlikely to happen.
Anyway, while I like the idea of at least inquiring about Sabathia, I'd probably be hesitant to give up the players Cleveland would most likely be looking for. If a deal can be made while keeping Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, and Dellin Bettances then I'd probably be amenable to listening.
Page 1 of 1 pages: