Friday, June 20, 2008
A Tale of Two Bullpens
Last year, the Yankee bullpen was a sore spot for most of the season, although Joba Chamberlain's arrival and Mariano Rivera remembering that he was Mariano Rivera helped shore up the late inning portion in the second half of the season.The bullpen was a source of concern coming into 2008 because of the eventual move of Joba to the rotation, and with concerns about Rivera aging and not being the dominant force he once was, plus the fact that there were few proven veterans in the pen.
Rivera has come back with a vengeance this season, and Joba was solid in the pen for 23 innings. In addition to that, some other pitchers have emerged. I'm going to run through some of the key relievers and take a look at their 2008 projections and their 2008 YTD performance and see what we should expect going forward.
| Rivera,Mariano | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 6 | 2 | 2.88 | 63 | 0 | 71 | 63 | 0 | 71 | 64 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 61 | 12 | 19 |
| Year-to-Date | 2 | 2 | 0.79 | 32 | 0 | 34 | 32 | 0 | 34 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 14 | 18 |
| Rest-of-Year | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 36 | 0 | 39 | 36 | 0 | 39 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 15 |
| Total | 6 | 3 | 1.48 | 68 | 0 | 73 | 68 | 0 | 73 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 77 | 24 | 33 |
RSAA: runs saved above average.
RSAR: runs saved above replacement.
In the dictionary next to the word awesome, there should be a picture of Mariano Rivera. Even with some expected regression he's on pace to have a monster year.
| Farnsworth,Kyle | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 4 | 3 | 4.19 | 62 | 0 | 61 | 62 | 0 | 61 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 56 | 1 | 8 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 2 | 4.05 | 32 | 0 | 33 | 32 | 0 | 33 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 5 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 2 | 4.50 | 35 | 0 | 36 | 35 | 0 | 36 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | 3 | 4 | 4.29 | 67 | 0 | 69 | 67 | 0 | 69 | 73 | 33 | 15 | 26 | 63 | 1 | 9 |
The Farns is who we thought he was. An erratic hard-thrower who will make small leads in the eighth inning extraordinarily stressful, but for the most part should be an average reliever. His HR rate this year is freakishly high, and should correct somewhat going forward.
| Veras,Jose | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 3 | 2 | 4.76 | 40 | 1 | 43 | 40 | 1 | 43 | 45 | 23 | 5 | 19 | 33 | -2 | 4 |
| Year-to-Date | 2 | 0 | 3.00 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 6 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 1 | 4.12 | 22 | 0 | 24 | 22 | 0 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 4 |
| Total | 4 | 1 | 3.60 | 41 | 0 | 45 | 41 | 0 | 45 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 4 | 10 |
Jose Veras is slowly emerging as one of the key relievers in the Yankee pen. He's still got less than stellar command, but his stuff is good enough to get past that most of the time. If Farnsworth does start to scuffle, expect Veras to start pitching in more high-leverage situations. His projection was blah coming into the year but his going-forward projection gets a nice boost from his YTD performance.
| Ramirez,Edwar | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 4 | 1 | 4.12 | 42 | 0 | 49 | 42 | 0 | 49 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 55 | 2 | 7 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 0 | 2.86 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 4 | 6 |
| Rest-of-Year | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 23 | 0 | 27 | 23 | 0 | 27 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 5 |
| Total | 2 | 1 | 3.49 | 43 | 0 | 49 | 43 | 0 | 49 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 23 | 55 | 5 | 11 |
Edwar Ramirez has done a good job in the majors after tearing up the minors, although his last outing wasn't very good. Ramirez projects to be pretty good going forward as well. There's a fairly good chance he can be the best non-Mo reliever in the pen by year end.
| Hawkins,LaTroy | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 4 | 2 | 4.36 | 56 | 0 | 55 | 56 | 0 | 55 | 60 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 31 | 0 | 8 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 1 | 5.64 | 24 | 0 | 29 | 24 | 0 | 29 | 27 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 18 | -4 | 0 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 1 | 4.65 | 30 | 0 | 31 | 30 | 0 | 31 | 34 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -1 | 3 |
| Total | 3 | 2 | 5.13 | 54 | 0 | 60 | 54 | 0 | 60 | 61 | 34 | 5 | 28 | 36 | -5 | 2 |
The Yankees are trying to trade the Hawk, but until they do he'll be a long man and pitch in mainly low leverage spots. He should pitch a little better going forward, although he's not much better than replacement level at this point.
| Ohlendorf,Ross | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 5 | 5 | 5.46 | 25 | 16 | 94 | 25 | 16 | 94 | 116 | 57 | 14 | 29 | 53 | -11 | 1 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 1 | 5.64 | 22 | 0 | 37 | 22 | 0 | 37 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 18 | 33 | -5 | -1 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 3 | 5.40 | 18 | 6 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 50 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 18 | 32 | -6 | 1 |
| Total | 3 | 4 | 5.50 | 40 | 6 | 87 | 40 | 6 | 87 | 102 | 53 | 13 | 36 | 65 | -11 | 0 |
Ohlendorf's numbers are ugly, but part of that is that he's not being used correctly. He also has a pretty marked platoon split this year (.224/.289/.368 vs. RHB, .347/.437/.547 vs LHB). He's got good stuff, but so far it hasn't translated to continued success. It'll be interesting to see how his performance looks if he is restricted to one inning outings.
For comparison's sake, here's a look at how this year's bullpen compares to last year's.
| Year | W | L | Sv | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2007 | 29 | 21 | 34 | 529.7 | 503 | 257 | 57 | 260 | 435 | 4.37 | 4.43 | 8.55 | 0.97 | 4.42 | 7.39 | 5 | 70 |
| 2008 YTD | 10 | 10 | 21 | 246.0 | 210 | 96 | 29 | 100 | 228 | 3.51 | 4.10 | 7.68 | 1.06 | 3.66 | 8.34 | 16 | 44 |
| 2008 On Pace | 22 | 22 | 47 | 545.9 | 466 | 213 | 64 | 222 | 506 | 3.51 | 4.10 | 7.68 | 1.06 | 3.66 | 8.34 | 36 | 99 |
Joba's time in the pen in 2007 and 2008 kind of cancel each other out, but we can see that this year's pen is walking fewer and striking out more. They're allowing fewer hits. The only negative is a slight uptick in their HR rate. The 2008 pen's FIP is higher than their ERA so that may be in for a slight correction. Or maybe the Farns will stop giving up HRs every 4 innings.
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